Yesterday was undoubtedly a very special day in the history of Nanyang .
One, as many as seven pieces of land were released within one day, and the quantity and volume (nearly 300 acres) were unprecedented.
The second is that the land auction was conducted in the morning for the first time. This arrangement is not for the first time, but at least it is rare. Among the seven plots of land in
, except for the G 2019-16 plot at the intersection of Xinchen Road and Kongming Road, which is a ticket supplement project, the other six plots include a commercial and service wholesale plot G 2019-21 plot, etc., all located in Nanyang New District. Once again, compared with other regions, the new district's land reserve scale is not only strong, but has gradually matured.
![First, as many as seven pieces of land were released within one day, with unprecedented quantity and size. Second, the land auction was carried out in the morning for the first time. In the end, it was won by Nanyang Tengye Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. [i.e. Nanyang Jianye] - DayDayNews](https://cdn-dd.lujuba.top/img/loading.gif)
G2019-05 Area 40.5 mu; in the end, it was won by Nanyang Tengye Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. [i.e., Nanyang Jianye] for 272.4 million yuan, with a floor price of 4,035 yuan/㎡, with a unit price of about 6.72 million yuan per mu; in the
G2019-06 Area 44.1 mu; in the end, it was won by Nanyang Ruisi Real Estate Co., Ltd. for 304.9 million yuan, with a floor price of 4,140 yuan/㎡, with a unit price of about 69 per mu; in the end, it was won by Nanyang Ruisi Real Estate Co., Ltd. for 304.9 million yuan, with a floor price of 4,140 yuan/㎡, with a unit price of about 69 per mu; in the end, it was won by Nanyang Ruisi Real Estate Co., Ltd. for 304.9 million yuan, with a floor price of 4,140 yuan/㎡, with a unit price of about 69 per mu; in the end, it was won by Nanyang Ruisi Real Estate Co., Ltd. for 304.9 million yuan, with a floor price of 4,140 yuan/㎡, with a unit price of about 69 per mu. 00,000 yuan; (a newly registered company)
G2019-07 area 22.7 mu; finally won by Nanyang Tengye Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. [i.e. Nanyang Jianye] for 146.3 million yuan, with a floor price of 3852 yuan/m2, with a unit price of about 6.42 million yuan per mu;
G2019-08 area 63.6 mu; finally won by Henan Xinyou Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. for 390.5 million yuan, with a floor price of 3681 yuan/m2, with a unit price of about 6.13 million yuan per mu;
The entire land auction process continued from the morning to the afternoon, and it finally came to an end. In a word, the rhythm is tense, the competition is fierce, the popularity is really high, and the land is really precious! Before
, the unit price exceeded 6 million, which was the sky-high price and the land king. Now, 6 million is the base, which is no wonder.
Why is Nanyang’s real estate so popular?
Nanyang, what's wrong? Let’s take a look next!
Monthly Analysis Report on the Development of China's Housing Market
Principal: Zou Linhua, Wang Yeqiang, Lu Fengyong,
On April 19, 2019, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee required that " should adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, and implement a long-term regulatory mechanism for the one-city-one policy, implementing policies based on the city, and the main responsibility of the city government. In order to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, the Housing Big Data Project Team of the Institute of Finance and Economics Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences completed the July 2019 "Monthly Analysis Report on the Development of China's Housing Market" based on the monitoring and analysis of the Weifang Index in June 2019 and combined with the long-term tracking and research of the project team on China's housing market. As an innovation in research paradigm, all real estate data involved in the report originates from big data mining analysis.
1. The housing prices in core cities rose at a rate fell for three consecutive months, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses fell rapidly
In June 2019, housing prices in core cities basically stopped rising, and the overall goal of housing price stability was achieved. The Weifang Core Index, which reflects the comprehensive changes in housing prices in 24 core cities across the country, shows that in June 2019, the Weifang Core Index rose slightly to 105.82 points. Compared with 105.73 points in May, house prices rose only 0.09% month-on-month. As of June 2019, although housing prices in core cities have risen for five consecutive months, the rate of housing prices has continued to decline since April. The rate of housing prices in core cities slowed further in June compared with February to May, and housing prices in core cities have basically stopped rising in the past month.
Judging from the cumulative increase in housing prices, the fluctuations in housing prices in core cities are also weakening. The housing price fluctuations in core cities in the first half of 2019 were significantly lower than the same period in 2018. Weifang Core Index shows that compared with 102.52 points in January 2019, housing prices in core cities rose by 3.22% in June 2019. Compared with 100 points in January 2018, housing prices in core cities rose by 8.29% in June 2018. The peak-to-valley gap in housing prices in 2019 has narrowed significantly compared with 2018.
weifang core index combines the changes in housing prices in 24 core cities across the country and can serve as an important barometer of China's real estate market. The 24 core cities are Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Chongqing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu, Nanjing, Ningbo, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Wuxi , Changsha, Xiamen, Jinan, Xi'an, Shenyang, Dalian, Fuzhou, Nantong and Dongguan, which basically cover the most economically competitive urban groups in China.It includes 4 first-tier cities, 4 quasi-first-tier cities, and 16 second-tier cities. The Weifang Core Index takes January 2018 as the base housing price period and uses the 2017 commercial housing sales of each city as the index weight for comprehensive calculations.
2. The housing prices in first-tier cities generally fell slightly, among which Shanghai and Shenzhen turned from rising to falling, while Beijing and Guangzhou continued to fall
The housing prices in first-tier cities changed from structural slightly to overall slight decline. Monitoring of the Weifang Index of First-tier cities shows that in June 2019, the average housing prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.615% month-on-month, and the increase rate fell by 0.753 percentage points from the previous month. House prices in Beijing and Guangzhou continued to maintain a stable and slightly decline, with Guangzhou falling by 0.86% month-on-month and Beijing falling by 0.48% month-on-month. Shanghai and Shenzhen turned from a small increase to a small decline, with Shenzhen falling 0.98% month-on-month and Shanghai falling 0.14% month-on-month.
3. The housing price increase rate in quasi-first-tier and second-tier cities has further declined
The housing price increase rate in quasi-first-tier cities has further declined, but the pattern of rising housing prices has not yet reversed. Monitoring of the Weifang Index of Quasi-first-tier cities shows that in June 2019, the average housing prices in Quasi-first-tier cities rose by 0.948% month-on-month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Hangzhou rose 0.74% month-on-month, with a narrowing of 0.87 percentage points from the previous month; Chongqing rose 0.25% month-on-month, with a narrowing of 0.71 percentage points from the previous month; Tianjin fell 0.8% month-on-month. Suzhou, a hot city in June, rose 3.6% month-on-month. Although the increase rate fell by 1.21 percentage points from the previous month, the relative increase rate was still slightly higher.
4. The housing prices in 3 , fourth-tier cities are rising and falling, and the overall situation is relatively stable
Short-term housing prices in 3 tier 4 cities are rising and falling. Monitoring of the Weifang Index in third- and fourth-tier cities shows that in June 2019, the average housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities rose by 0.192% month-on-month, and the growth rate slightly increased by 0.061 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 118 third- and fourth-tier cities, 65 rose, an increase of 15 from the previous month, and the proportion of rising cities was 55%. In June 2019, housing prices in Langfang ( Yanjiao ), which is the vane of Beijing, fell by 2.41% month-on-month, a decrease of similar to last month (2.64%).
House prices in third- and fourth-tier cities are generally stable. From a year-on-year perspective, compared with June 2018, among the 118 third- and fourth-tier sample cities in June 2019, 72 cities had year-on-year increase, accounting for 61%. In June, housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities rose by 2.667% year-on-year, down 1.517 percentage points from the previous month.
The Weifang Index in 142 key cities in the country showed year-on-year:
In June 2019, Nanyang's housing price increase was second in the country compared with the same period
In May 2019, Nanyang's housing price increase ranked first in the country compared with the same period last year.
Fast base of key cities shows that housing prices in some cities have experienced big ups and downs, but the decline is far from enough to offset the increase . Nanyang , Xianyang, Haikou, Xining, Linyi resident 142 sample cities Top 5 house price increases since January 2018; Chengdu, Zhangjiakou, Anshan, Zhangzhou and Daqing rank among the top 5 house price declines since January 2018. Among them, Haikou ranks among the top 5 house price increases since January 2018 and also among the top 5 house price declines in the past year, indicating that Haikou's housing prices have experienced major ups and downs in the past two years, but the decline is far from erasing the increase. There is also similar situations. Although Xi'an has disappeared from the cities with the highest growth rates in the past year, its cumulative increase since January 2018 still ranks sixth in the sample cities.
In April 2019, Nanyang's housing price increase ranked first in the country year-on-year
April 2019 Key cities Weifang Index (year-on-year
Weifang Index (an upgraded version of the original big data housing price index BHPI) is the first new housing price index based on housing big data and repeated transaction methods. Through the application of new technologies, Weifang Index has effectively avoided technical problems such as Yin-Yang contract prices, irrational quotations, online signing time lag, and total distortion, thus becoming closer to the true feelings of residents' families about the rise and fall of housing prices.The Weifang Index is a public welfare monthly housing price index. It currently includes two national comprehensive indexes: the Weifang Core Index and the Weifang Rent Core Index, the housing price index of 142 major cities, the housing rent index of about 30 key cities, and the district and county housing price index of dozens of key cities. The index of the previous month is completed in the middle and late each month. The Weifang Index has three dimensions: fixed-base, month-on-month and year-on-year, and also provides the median big data housing prices as a reference. The Weifang Index mainly monitors changes in the price of existing housing, and changes in the price of newly built commercial housing will not be included in the Weifang Index for the time being. As an open-plan housing price index based on big data, the monitoring depth and breadth of the Weifang Index will continue to improve. Weifang Index is a cutting-edge research achievement in big data mining. The data is only used as a reference for market research. The housing market evaluation is based on the data of the government statistical department.
2. Analysis of development problems
1. The risk of delaying delivery of houses and unfinished houses in some real estate companies has increased, and the pre-sale system for pre-sales of houses needs to be deepened
The real estate market is essentially a market with strong volatility. Most real estate companies in my country adopt a high-debt operation model, which itself contains great operating risks. In the past decade, due to the rise in housing prices and falls less, the risk of breaking the capital chain of development companies has been overshadowed by optimistic market performance. With the comprehensive advancement of "housing for living, not for speculation", the housing market has stabilized and become the norm. Real estate companies with too high debt ratios or overly optimistic market predictions will face the risk of tight capital chains or even breaking.
As the market returns rationally, the capital chain of real estate companies has become tighter, and the risk of delayed delivery of houses and unfinished houses has increased. Under the pre-sale system of pre-sales of housing, this will also greatly damage the rights and interests of home buyers. Especially in third- and fourth-tier cities and below, the industry's regulatory power is weak and the downward pressure on the market is increasing, making it more likely to be unable to deliver houses on schedule. To this end, it is necessary to accelerate the reform of the current pre-sale system for housing in advance and reduce the risks of unfinished and delayed delivery of housing in advance.
2. Under the pressure of capital, real estate companies tend to have a fast turnover business model
On the one hand, due to factors such as purchase restrictions and market adjustments, the growth rate of commercial housing sales has declined, and real estate companies' capital recovery has not been smooth; on the other hand, in order to avoid overheating of the land market, certain normative control measures have been taken at the policy level for the financing of development companies, and the financing costs of real estate companies have increased. In order to reduce financial pressure, most real estate companies tend to adopt a fast turnover model that shortens development and sales time. Due to the vigorous compression of the production cycle, the quality of some commercial housing products has declined.
3. "House to live in, not speculation" successfully stabilizes housing prices, and the buyer's market tests policy stability
In the context of "housing to live in, not speculation" and the main responsibility of local governments to stabilize housing prices has become a policy consensus, the demand for speculation in housing investment has declined. As long as the strategy of "housing for living, not for speculation" can be adhered to, not only will housing prices not rise sharply, but some cities will also enter the buyer's market. Although this is conducive to reducing macro risks and calming down housing prices, it will also cause some local leading development companies to face operational difficulties. For some cities that rely heavily on land finance, fiscal pressure will inevitably increase. These will test the city's determination to stabilize the real estate market.
3. Short-term prediction
1. The short-term housing prices in first- and second-tier cities have fallen slightly
Although first- and second-tier cities are the cluster areas of China's high-end industries and the main inflow of population, the threshold for housing prices and housing purchase policies is relatively high. From the perspective of regulatory policies, real estate regulation in first-tier cities has a long history, the regulatory mechanism is relatively complete, and the regulatory means are also strict; although the strictness and completeness of real estate regulation policies in second-tier cities are not as strict as those in first-tier cities, the market regulation mechanism is also being continuously established and improved. Most first- and second-tier cities have established foreign purchase restrictions, making housing speculation more difficult. With the tightening of regulatory policies in first- and second-tier cities since the second quarter of 2019, speculative components in the real estate market have been continuously squeezed out, and housing price volatility has continued to decline. The market spring in the first quarter of 2019 also overdrawn the market demand in the second half of the year to a certain extent, and the short-term market has the motivation to lower the market.
2. Without further policy stimulation, the housing market in third- and fourth-tier cities will enter a downward small cycle
. Third- and fourth-tier cities generally lack high-end industries and talent attractiveness, and the real estate market is not specific for the long-term continuous rise. Since the second half of 2018, against the backdrop of the decline in the effectiveness of policy stimulus and the disappearance of the "relative depression" of housing prices, the housing market in third- and fourth-tier cities may enter a downward small cycle, and housing prices have steadily declined.
4. Countermeasures and suggestions
1. Starting from protecting the rights and interests of home buyers, we should steadily promote the current sale of housing according to local conditions or increase the pre-sale conditions.
As the housing market shifts from a rapid rise to an overall stabilization, the short-term financial pressure of real estate companies will increase rapidly, and the risk of unfinished housing or delayed delivery of pre-sale houses may increase rapidly. Under the pre-sale system of pre-sales of housing, these risks will be passed on to home buyers. Especially in third- and fourth-tier cities and below, the rights and interests of home buyers are more difficult to protect. In order to effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers and maintain social stability, it is necessary to steadily promote the reform of the pre-sale system of pre-sales of housing according to local conditions. For cities with sufficient short-term supply, it can consider promoting current sales and canceling pre-sale licenses; for cities that do not meet the conditions for promoting current sales, it can consider increasing pre-sale conditions and requiring development companies to provide reliable third-party guarantees for delivery of houses on schedule.
2. Continue to maintain reasonable control of financing for development companies and curb land-related speculation from the source
In order to avoid credit funds "get out of real and into virtual" or illegally flowing into the real estate market, relevant financial management departments have taken certain financing control measures for real estate development companies. On the one hand, this effectively suppressed the overheating of the land market and stabilized short-term housing prices. On the other hand, it also caused financial constraints among development companies. Some people believe that as producers of commercial housing, the insufficient funds of developers will affect market supply and be detrimental to the long-term stability of the housing market. However, it should be noted that the main part of housing prices is land prices rather than construction costs. The shortage of funds of development companies is mainly affected by land prices, and will not cause the consequences of tightening the development of commercial housing. In order to stabilize land market expectations and curb related speculation in land and real estate from the source, it is possible to consider institutionalizing reasonable control measures for financing development companies.
3. Adhere to the principle of "housing for living, not speculation" and maintain the stability of regulation and policy
Although "housing for living, not speculation" is conducive to reducing macro risks and improving the level of residents' housing, it has certain internal contradictions with the land finance in the short term. With the advancement of "housing for living, not for speculation", some cities will inevitably face certain financial pressure. In order to avoid policy fluctuations in the market, on the one hand, we need to adhere to policy determination, continue to curb housing investment speculation, and maintain the sustained stability of the real estate market; on the other hand, we need to increase the transformation of the fiscal structure and reduce our dependence on real estate-related income.
report author:
Zou Linhua, head of the housing big data project team of the Institute of Finance and Economics Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, deputy director of the Competitiveness Simulation Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, editor-in-chief of the "Monthly Analysis Report on the Development of China's Housing Market"
Wang Yeqiang, director of the Land Economy and Real Estate Research Office of the Institute of Urban Development and Environment of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, editor-in-chief of the "Real Estate Blue Book"
Lv Fengyong, editor-in-chief of the "China County Economic Development Report" of the Institute of Finance and Economics Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,
data sorting:
Ye Bingyang, housing big data project team of the Institute of Finance and Economics Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, editor-in-chief of the "China County Economic Development Report" of the Institute of Finance and Economics Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,
data sorting:
Ye Bingyang, housing big data project team of the Institute of Finance and Economics Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, housing big data project team of the Institute of Finance and Economics Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, editor-in-chief of the "China County Economic Development Report"
data sorting:
Ye Bingyang, housing big data project team of the Institute of Finance and Economics Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, housing big data project team of the Institute of Finance and Economics Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, editor-in-chief of the "China County Economics Development Report"
data sorting:
Ye Bingyang, housing big data project team of the Institute of Finance and Economics Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Science Research Assistant
Introduction to the Joint Laboratory of Housing Big Data
In 2014, Dr. Zou Linhua first proposed the idea of compiling a big data housing price index. In December 2016, after more than two years of technical research, the index team successfully tested the first version of the Big Data Housing Price Index (BHPI). On January 10, 2017, based on the first edition of the big data housing price index, the Institute of Finance and Economics Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Center for Urban and Competitiveness Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and other institutions jointly released the first "Big Data Housing Price Index Report", using the big data housing price index in December 2016 to analyze and predict the Chinese housing market.The report received a huge social response as soon as it was released, and Xinhua News Agency, Guangming Daily, China Economic Net, Daily Economic News and other special reports were made on this.
In order to adapt to the characteristics of big data research and further enhance the objectivity and influence of index results, in March 2017, the index research team completed the first expansion and upgrading. Based on the original big data housing price index research team, a cross-institutional industry scholar collaborative research platform - Housing Big Data Joint Laboratory was jointly initiated by many real estate research scholars from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Peking University, Renmin University of China, Nanjing University and other institutions. The joint laboratory has a BHPI index expert committee, which is responsible for deliberating the rules for preparing indexes. Sample adjustments and algorithm changes of the Big Data Housing Price Index (BHPI) are strictly implemented by the Housing Big Data Joint Laboratory in accordance with the "Index Charter".
In addition to reviewing and publishing the Big Data Housing Price Index (BHPI), the main missions of the Housing Big Data Joint Laboratory include: carrying out cross-institutional housing data collaboration and research; promoting housing data exchange; establishing an open housing big data sharing platform; promoting cooperative research based on big data between academia and industry and governments; disseminating, communicating and promoting real estate big data analysis technology; and promoting the in-depth application of big data in the field of academic research.
In March 2019, the upgraded version of the "Big Data Housing Price Index" "Weifang Index" was officially released. At the same time, according to the needs of technology research and development and consultation under the new situation, the Weifang Big Data and Artificial Intelligence Research Institute (hereinafter referred to as Weifang Research Institute) has been newly established as an external technology research, consulting and promotion agency for the joint housing big data laboratory. Weifang Big Data and Artificial Intelligence Research Institute focuses on the research and development of big data and artificial intelligence technologies in the urban and real estate fields, and is responsible for the public release of Weifang Index.
Data source: Housing Big Data Project Team, Dayuan Tea, Nanyang High Buildings, Nanyang Real Estate Network, Nanyang City Meeting
