Reporter of the Business Daily: Tan Yuhan Li Menglin
This week, British Prime Minister Tras "flashed" after taking office just 45 days later, becoming the shortest-term Prime Minister in British history. And how did the largest tax cut plan issued by the Trass government in 50 years lead to the collapse of the UK pension funds? Who will be the successor? What policies will be adopted? Let’s look at the special experts such as Andrew Goodwin, chief British economist at Oxford Economic Research Institute, and other experts.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still fierce. 30% of Ukraine's power stations were destroyed, and many places were attacked by missiles . Russia said that NATO continues to provide military support to Ukraine, which is gradually approaching a direct military conflict with Russia. In order to defend NATO's territory, more than 4,700 US troops have been deployed to Romania .
According to CCTV News, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, energy prices and inflation in European countries soar. Some European automobile and manufacturing companies have been forced to stop production or decide to move production lines out recently, and the United States has become one of the important destinations. Some comments pointed out that the United States is trying to "turn the danger of Europe into an opportunity for the United States." Macron angrily criticized the United States for "double standards" in selling natural gas , and Germany received the first batch of UAE hydrogen.
In addition, Musk and Bezos have successively made pessimistic expectations about the economic outlook; former US President Trump was summoned for the "Congressional Riot Case", and Bannon, then a senior strategic adviser, was sentenced to four months in prison; Canada announced the freeze of pistol trading and transfer; 8 new crown mutant strains spread in the United States at the same time, and the new crown test was positive at the director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
More content is available in "One Week International Finance".
Tras took office for 45 days and "resigned"
Expert: The successor will continue the fiscal austerity policy
Picture source: Visual China
" I took office when the economy and international environment were very unstable. I admit that I cannot fulfill the mission given to me by the Conservative Party when I elected me, " On October 20, local time, Tras said in a brief resignation statement. Just the day before, she said, "I am a soldier, I will not give up easily."
After the reckless tax cut plan was ruthlessly hit by the financial market, Elizabeth Tras, who had only been in office for 45 days, finally announced his resignation and became the shortest-serving prime minister in British history.
How did the "British Pension Fund" almost collapse? Truss's resignation is largely due to its launch of the largest tax cut in the UK in 50 years. To fund the scheme, the UK government said it would borrow an additional £72.4 billion this year alone.
According to " Guardian ", large amounts of bond issuance will cause investors to expect to buy at a lower price, which will lead to a decline in bond prices. The rise in bank interest rates will also increase the government's borrowing costs, resulting in a decline in bond prices.
Image source: Oxford Economic Research Institute
" Daily Economic News " reporter found that inflation in the UK is already very serious, and in September CPI once again "exploded" (10.1%) . The Bank of England has previously raised the benchmark interest rate from near zero to 2.25% , and the market expects the terminal interest rate to reach 5.25% next year. At the same time, the proportion of UK government debt in GDP has increased from about 83% before the epidemic to 95% .
According to " Reuters ", the British pension fund that purchased treasury bonds with has faced additional margin due to the decline in bond prices, and has to sell some of the treasury bonds to obtain cash. The selling of treasury bonds has caused further reductions in the price of treasury bonds, resulting in the need to add more margin, thus falling into a "vicious cycle" tile 6. The market was stabilized until the Bank of England urgently took large-scale bond purchases.
"The incorrect economic solution has caused serious crises in pounds , British pension funds, government bonds, etc., and has severely hit foreign investors and British people's confidence in the British economy." Ding Donghan, a researcher at the British Research Center of Shanghai International Studies University, explained to the reporter of "Daily Economic News". Director of of the Institute of International Affairs of Renmin University of China and Director of the European Union Research Center, Wang Yizhi, told the Daily Economic News that Tras wants to learn Mrs. Thatcher 's neoliberal economic policies, but the times and conditions have changed. Trass' own abilities and prestige are also limited, so Therefore, the "Waterless" tax cut plan will only cause more problems .
's successor may continue Hunter's fiscal austerity policy
According to CCTV News, the British Conservative Party will complete the leadership election in the next week. The vote will end on October 28, and the new leader will take office on October 31.
's successor may continue Hunter's fiscal austerity policy
According to CCTV News, the British Conservative Party will complete the leadership election in the next week. The vote will end on October 28, and the new leader will take office on October 31.
Currently, the hottest successor for is former Chancellor Rich Sunak . He led a large number of government officials to "turn against" because of his first resignation, and eventually forced the scandal-ridden former Prime Minister Johnson to step down. He lost in the last round in the process of competing with Tras for the party leader and prime minister. During the campaign, he criticized Tras' tax cut plan as a "fairy tale".
According to Global Network , the British Sky News reported on October 22, the media reporter took photos of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson flying back to the UK. Conservative MP James Dudridge previously revealed that Johnson is planning to run for the prime minister again. Reports said that Johnson said, "I'm ready." ”
According to the comprehensive calculation of the odds of six betting websites on October 22, the probability of Sunak becoming the new prime minister is 61.7%, Johnson’s 33.6%, and the probability of former Defense Secretary Modant has dropped to 5.9%.
” Considering that politicians have recently experienced the horror of the market, no matter who becomes the prime minister, it is unlikely to deviate from the (Crime Minister) Hunter has started the route of raising taxes and tightening public spending in the past week. "Andrew Goodwin, chief British economist at the Oxford Economic Research Institute, told the Daily Economic News via email.
After Trass' close ally and Chancellor Kwoten was "fired" for the tax cuts, Hunter, who took over, has canceled the "most" tax cuts. At present, Hunter is formulating a new "medium-term fiscal plan", and large-scale public spending cuts are expected.
Under the chaotic performance of the Conservative Party's rule, the opposition Labor Party has already taken a big lead in the polls, and the latter calls for an early election. Goodwin believes that the Conservative Party's agreement to the election is undoubtedly equivalent to "election suicide." "Under the British electoral system, the next election can be pushed to January 2025 at the latest. We hope that Trass' successor can make good use of the rest of the time. "Goodwin said.
More than 4,700 soldiers of the US 101 Airborne Division were deployed to Romania
Russia said NATO is gradually approaching a direct conflict with it
Picture source: CCTV News Screenshot
United States "cut European leeks" html l6
Germany received the first batch of UAE hydrogen
Image source: Visual China
On the 21st local time, French President Macron held a press conference after attending the Brussels summit. According to the Global Network, citing TASS , he released the news that day. At the meeting, it was said that the United States is "double standard" for natural gas for sale, saying that the price of natural gas in the US domestic market is three or four times cheaper than that of natural gas sold to Europe by the United States. According to Xinhua News Agency , Germany received the first batch of hydrogen from the UAE on the same day in order to promote energy transformation and alleviate the domestic energy crisis .
According to CCTV News, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, energy prices in European countries soar and inflation is high. Affected by this, some European automobile and manufacturing companies have been forced to stop production or decide to move production lines out recently. Because the US energy prices are far lower than those of Europe and have introduced huge subsidy policies, United States has become one of the important destinations for European companies to move production lines out. comments pointed out that the United States is trying to "turn the danger of Europe into an opportunity for the United States" to gain benefits.Just as Europe is facing serious challenges of key industries loss and economic recession, the United States secretly raised the sickle of "cutting European leeks", forcing the balance of the cross- Atlantic partnership to tilt to the side that is beneficial to the United States.
htmlOn 19, German Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Habeck held a video conference with French Minister of Economy and Finance Le Maire. Both sides said that Europe must respond to the U.S. Inflation Cuts Act.EU countries generally believe that the bill is discrimination against EU automobiles, renewable energy, batteries and energy-intensive industries. The EU's concerns are not without reason. On October 19, the German BMW Group announced that it will conduct a new round of electric car investment in in South Carolina, USA, with a value of electric car. Not long ago, one of the world's largest steel manufacturers, ArcelorMittal , said that due to the soaring electricity costs, the company has closed two factories in Germany, and has turned to its factory in Texas, USA to continue production.
" Wall Street Journal " expressed concerns about the signs of " deindustrialization " in Europe. The report said the question is whether the current pain in Europe is temporary or a sign of the beginning of a "de-industrialization" era. The European online magazine " Modern Diplomacy " published an article titled "How the United States destroyed Europe" . The article points out that "the US government is the initiator of the outflow of wealth in Europe." The article is also worried, "As Europe continues to flow out of wealth - mainly flows to the United States, Europe will become increasingly backward."
Musk and Bezos also gave pessimistic economic expectations
Image source: Visual China
This week, Musk and Bezos, the top two richest men in the world, both gave pessimistic economic expectations.
On Friday, an Twitter user asked Musk how long the economic recession will last. Musk left a message and replied: "I just guess that may last until the spring of 2024."
The current Tesla stock price has almost "halved". Musk said on the 19th that as global economy continues to weaken, it will be more difficult for Tesla to increase market demand.
In addition, Jeff Bezos (Jeff Bezos3), founder of Amazon , reposted the video of Goldman Sachs CEO Su Dewei being interviewed on the evening of the 18th and warned that the US economy may be more difficult in the future, and is best for all walks of life to "live on the battlefield" .
Su Dewei said in an interview with CNBC earlier the same day that now is a time for corporate leaders and investors to understand that risks are becoming increasingly accumulating and make corresponding preparations.
Trump was summoned by Congress
Bannon was sentenced to 4 months in prison
Image source: Visual China
According to CCTV News, local time on the 21st local time, the special member of the House of Representatives, , who is responsible for investigating the " riots in the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021", will issue a subpoena to former President Trump, asking Trump to take the oath to testify in on November 14 in Washington , and provide records related to the Capitol riots and their causes before this. It is not clear whether Trump will be present to testify.
On the same day, his then-high strategic adviser, Steve Bannon, ended his sentencing sentence in the case of "contempt Congress". was sentenced to four months in prison and a fine of $6,500 for two criminal charges of "staining Congress".
It is reported that the U.S. House Special Committee, which is responsible for investigating the "Capital Riots", voted on October 19, 2021 local time, unanimously agreed to arrest Bannon for criminal contempt of court because Bannon defied the subpoena order issued by the committee and refused to appear in court to testify. Bannon was prosecuted for refusing a subpoena request issued by the House Special Committee in September 2021. A federal jury convicted Bannon in July 2022 for two counts of "contempt of Congress". Since his conviction, Bannon insisted on paying the highest fine and refused to cooperate with the probation office's routine pre-sentence financial investigation.
Canada announced the sale and transfer of pistols
Picture source: Visual China
According to CCTV News, on October 21 local time, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau posted on Twitter saying that will no longer be allowed to sell, buy and transfer pistols in Canada, and more than 1,500 attack guns have been banned across Canada.
National pistol freezing is part of the Canadian government's comprehensive plan to address gun violence. In May 2022, Canada announced the national pistol freeze for the first time, and also announced the strongest gun control measure C-21 in more than 40 years. Bill C-21 recommends further measures to prevent guns from falling into the hands of bad people, such as revoking gun licenses for those involved in domestic violence or criminal harassment, continuing to combat gun smuggling and trafficking, and providing law enforcement with more tools to investigate gun crimes. The bill is still in the parliamentary debate stage.
According to data released by the Canadian government, between 2009 and 2020, 59% of gun violence crime cases involved the use of pistols. Currently, the number of pistols in Canada is 70% higher than in 2010, and There were more than 3,500 gun theft cases in 2018.
Since 2016, the Canadian government has invested nearly 1 billion Canadian dollars to address gun violence and prevent guns from falling into the hands of gangs and criminals, including supporting efforts to combat gun smuggling at the U.S.-Canada border. In 2021, the Canadian Border Services Agency (CBSA) set a record number of guns seized at the border.
8 new coronavirus mutation strains spread in the United States at the same time
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Picture source: Visual China
On October 22, local time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a statement that Director of the agency Warensky tested positive for the new coronavirus on the evening of the 21st and showed mild symptoms. Warensky has received the latest new crown vaccine, , and is currently in home quarantine and will attend the meeting online.
According to the Overseas Network on October 21, citing " US News and World Report ", the United States is currently dealing with eight types (BA.5, BA.4.6, BQ.1.1, BQ.1, BF.7, BA.2.75.2, BA.2.75 and BA.4) Omickron mutant strain , putting the United States at the risk of a new wave of epidemic this winter. As of 8:00 on October 23, Beijing time, the number of infections in the new crown in the United States exceeded 97.19 million, and the number of deaths exceeded 1.06 million.
As the number of BA.5 variants decreased, it is not clear whether any other variants became popular strains, or that multiple variants spread simultaneously. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began reporting the spread of the BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 strains last week, which has attracted people's attention. The two variants of have accounted for 11% of the current new confirmed cases in the United States, while the proportion was only 1% a month ago.
reported that new strains such as BQ.1.1 deserve attention. On the one hand, it may spread rapidly in the population, and on the other hand, it may also evade the effects of certain drugs. At the same time, it is more worth noting that the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States is decreasing, not because the epidemic has been controlled, but because home testing has decreased, and the number of infections has been underestimated.
In addition, the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention recently released a report saying that from 2021 to 2022, Europe had the largest high-pathological avian influenza epidemic on record, with a total of 37 countries affected.
Image source: Map Map of E-commerce
Image source: Map Map of E-commerce
Reporter | Tan Yuhan Li Menglin
Editing | Tan Yuhan
Vision | Liu Qingyan
Typesetting | Tan Yuhan
Daily Economic News
