Source: National Bureau of Statistics
According to relevant basic data and national economic accounting method, the main results of preliminary accounting of my country's fourth quarter and annual GDP (hereinafter referred to as GDP) are as follows:
Other relevant accounting results are found in the National Bureau of Statistics database (http://data.stats.gov.cn).
Attachment:
China GDP Quarterly Accounting Notes
1. Quarterly GDP Accounting Overview
1. Basic Concept
GDP is the final result of production activities of all permanent units in a country within a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of national economic accounting and an important indicator for measuring a country's economic status and development level. There are three methods for
GDP accounting, namely production method , income method and expenditure method . The three methods reflect the achievements of national economic production activities from different angles. The production method is a method to eliminate the value of intermediate goods and services invested in the production process from the value of goods and services created in the production process and obtain added value. The calculation formula for the added value of production methods in various industries of the national economy is as follows: added value = total output - intermediate input. Add the added value of the production method in various industries of the national economy to obtain the GDP of the production method. The income method is to calculate the results of production activities from the perspective of income forming in the production process. According to this calculation method, the added value consists of four parts: employee remuneration, net production tax, , fixed asset depreciation and operating surplus . The calculation formula is: added value = labor remuneration + net production tax + fixed asset depreciation + operating surplus. The sum of the income law added value of various industries in the national economy is equal to the income law GDP. The expenditure method is a method of calculating GDP from the perspective of the final use of the results of production activities. The final use includes three parts: final consumption expenditure, total capital formation of and net export of goods and services.
Quarterly GDP released by the National Bureau of Statistics is the result of accounting based on the production method.
1.2 Accounting scope
1.2.1 Production scope The production scope of
GDP accounting includes the following four parts: First, the production of goods or services provided by the producer or prepared to other units; Second, the self-sufficiency production of all goods used for their own final consumption or fixed capital formation ; Third, the self-sufficiency production of knowledge carrier products carried out by the producer for their own final consumption or fixed capital formation, but does not include similar activities engaged in by the household department; Fourth, the housing services provided by their own housing, and the self-sufficiency production of family and personal services provided by hiring paid family service personnel. The scope of production does not include unpaid family and personal services, natural activities without unit control (such as the natural growth of wild, uncultured forests, wild fruits or wild berries, and the natural increase in the number of fish in the high seas).
1.2.2 Scope of production activities
GDP Scope of production activities includes all permanent units with economic interests center within the economic territory of China. The quarterly GDP data in this report are national data calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics and do not include GDP data for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan Province.
1.3 Accounting unit
GDP accounting mainly uses legal entities as accounting units. In the accounting, they are divided into different industries based on the main activities engaged in by the legal entities, and the added value of each industry is calculated separately, and the added value of each industry is summarized to obtain GDP.
1.4 Accounting frequency
Accounting frequency is quarterly. From the first quarter of 1992 to the second quarter of 2015, China used cumulative accounting methods to calculate quarterly GDP, that is, calculate GDP data for the first quarter, quarters of 1-2, quarters of 1-3 and quarters of 1-4 respectively. The preliminary calculation of GDP in the first quarter of 1992 to the second quarter of 2015 is the preliminary calculation of annual GDP. Starting from the third quarter of 2015, it will be changed to a quarterly accounting method, that is, the GDP data for the first quarter, second quarter, third quarter and fourth quarter of each year are calculated respectively, and the cumulative data is obtained by adding the data in the quarter.
Starting from the first quarter of 2011, the National Bureau of Statistics officially announced the GDP growth rate in each quarter on a quarterly basis.
1.5 Legal basis and institutional provisions
GDP accounting strictly complies with the provisions of the " Statistical Law of the People's Republic of China ".At present, China's GDP is calculated in accordance with the requirements of the "China National Economic Accounting System (2016)", which adopts the basic accounting principles, content and methods of the United Nations "National Accounting System (2008)".
1.6 Confidentiality
In accordance with the provisions of Chapter 1, Article 9 of the Statistical Law of the People's Republic of China, statistical agencies and statistical personnel shall keep confidential state secrets, trade secrets and personal information known in statistical work.
National economic accounting personnel strictly keep the undisclosed professional statistical data and administrative record data used when conducting GDP accounting, and strictly keep the current GDP data before the GDP accounting data is released.
1.7 Domestic users who need
quarterly GDP data are mainly government departments, research institutions, universities, industry associations, media and the public. In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics regularly provides China's quarterly GDP data to international organizations such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Asian Development Bank, and the Asian Development Bank.
2. Quarterly GDP accounting method
2.1 Classification system
In quarterly GDP accounting, the industry classification is based on the Chinese national economy industry classification standard and the third industry classification standard, and two classification methods are adopted.
The first classification is the national economic industry classification, which adopts the "National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T 4754-2017)" promulgated by the national standards management department in 2017. Two-level classification is adopted in actual accounting.
The first level classification is based on the categories in the national economic industry classification, and is divided into 11 industries including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, construction, wholesale and retail, transportation, warehousing and postal industries, accommodation and catering, finance, real estate, information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and other industries. Among them, the industry includes three categories: mining, manufacturing, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply; other industries include scientific research and technical services, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, residents' services, repair and other services, education, health and social work, culture, sports and entertainment industries, public management, social security and social organizations, etc.
The second level classification, based on the first level classification, refines some categories in the national economic industry classification into industry categories.
The second classification is the tertiary industry classification. According to the " tertiary industry classification regulations " revised by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2018, it is divided into the primary industry, the secondary industry and the tertiary industry . The primary industry refers to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (excluding agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery majors and auxiliary activities); the secondary industry refers to mining (excluding mining majors and auxiliary activities), manufacturing (excluding metal products, machinery and equipment repair), electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries, and construction industries; the tertiary industry, namely service industries, referring to other industries except the primary and secondary industries (excluding international organizations).
2.2 Source
When accounting for quarterly GDP, all applicable economic statistical survey data that can be obtained during accounting are used for GDP accounting. The source of data mainly includes two parts:
1 is national statistical survey data, which refers to various statistical data obtained by statistical surveys implemented by the national statistical system, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, real estate, and service industries above a certain scale, population and labor wage statistics, price statistics, etc.
2 is the administrative record information of the administrative management department, mainly including: the Ministry of Finance, People's Bank of China , the State Administration of Taxation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission , the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other administrative departments, such as the credit income and expenditure of the People's Bank of China's financial institutions, and the tax information of the State Administration of Taxation in sub-industry.
2.3 Accounting method
2.3.1 Current price added value accounting method
According to the source of information, the quarterly current price added value accounting mainly uses the value added rate method, the relevant value index calculation method, and the use of constant price to estimate the current price.
2.3.1.1 Related value index speed estimation method
Related value index speed estimation method estimation method estimation method estimation method estimation of the current price growth rate of the relevant value index estimation, and then multiply the estimated current price added value by the estimated current price added value growth rate to obtain the current price added value added value. The calculation formula is:
Current price added value = current price added value added value added value in the same period last year × (1 + current price added value growth rate)
Where, the current price added value growth rate is determined based on the current price growth rate of the relevant value index in this period, as well as the quantitative relationship between the current price added value growth rate of the previous years and the current price growth rate of the relevant value index in previous years.
2.3.1.2 Using the constant price to calculate the current price method
First use the extrapolation method of the material quantity index to obtain the added value of the constant price in this period, and then calculate the added value of the current price based on the relevant price index. The calculation formula is:
current price added value = constant price added value × price index
2.3.2 Invariant price added value accounting method
constant price added value converts the added value calculated at the current price into a value calculated at a certain fixed period ( base period ), thereby eliminating the influence of price change factors so that the values in different periods can be compared. The added value of constant price is calculated using the fixed base period method. The base period is currently replaced every 5 years, and the base period for the added value of constant price from 2021 to 2025 is 2020.
Quarterly constant price added value accounting mainly uses the price index reduction method and the extrapolation method of related material quantity index.
2.3.2.1 Price index reduction method
uses the relevant price index to directly reduce the current price added value and calculate the unchanged price added value. The calculation formula is:
has unchanged value added value in a certain industry = the current price added value of the industry ÷ price index
2.3.2.2 Material Index Extrapolation method
uses the growth rate of the relevant material index to calculate the growth rate of the unchanged value added value, and then uses the unchanged value added value added value of the same period last year and the estimated unchanged value added value added value added value of the current period. The calculation formula is:
has unchanged value added value of the industry = the unchanged value added value of the same period last year × (1 + The growth rate of the industry's constant price added value)
Among them, the growth rate of the constant price added value is determined based on the quantitative relationship between the growth rate of the relevant material quantity indicators in this period, as well as the growth rate of the constant price added value added in previous years and the growth rate of the related material quantity indicators.
2.4 Seasonal adjustment
GDP month-on-month growth rate is the result of comparing the quarterly added value with the previous quarterly added value data. When calculating, the impact of seasonal factors on the time series must be eliminated, and the National Bureau of Statistics Seasonal Adjustment Software (NBS-SA) must be used to adjust the time series seasonally. NBS-SA is developed based on the most commonly used seasonal adjustment software in the world, taking into account China's unique seasonal factors. The software adds a new module to deal with China's unique seasonal factors, effectively eliminating China's unique seasonal factors, including mobile holiday factors such as the Spring Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, and Mid-Autumn Festival, factors that change weekly working days from the original 6-day system to the 5-day system, holiday changes and changes caused by holiday adjustments.
3.Quarterly GDP data revision
3.1 Necessity of revision
00 Preliminary accounting of quarterly GDP has strong requirements for timeliness and is generally announced about 15 days after the season. At this time, all the basic information required for GDP accounting cannot be obtained. Therefore, the preliminary accounting of quarterly GDP is calculated using professional statistical progress data and related indicators. Afterwards, as the basic information available continues to increase and improve, more complete basic information will be used, such as professional statistical annual reports, industry financial information and fiscal final accounts, to revise GDP data to make it more accurately reflect the actual situation of economic development.
3.2 Revision procedure
According to the latest reformed GDP accounting and data release system regulations of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's quarterly GDP accounting is divided into two steps: preliminary accounting and final verification.Generally, after the annual GDP is finally verified, the quarterly data must be revised, which is called a regular revision; after the national economic census is conducted, new basic data that has a great impact on GDP data, or the calculation methods and classification standards have changed, and the annual GDP historical data must be revised accordingly, which is called a comprehensive revision.
3.3 Revision method
3.3.1 Revision of quarterly data
China's current method of revision of quarterly GDP data is the proportional connection method, that is, the method of adjusting quarterly data using the difference between the annual benchmark value and the summaries of the four quarters within the year. The basic practice of the proportional connection method is: first, the current price and constant price added value of various industries in the national economy are respectively connected, and GDP and the added value of the three industries are the sum of the added value of the industry after the connection. The connection method between the unchangeable GDP and the added value of the unchangeable three industries is the same as the current price.
3.3.2 Revision of month-on-month data
Since the object of seasonal adjustment is time series data, when any quarterly data in the time series changes, it will affect the results of seasonal adjustment; adding the latest quarterly data to the time series will also cause the previous quarterly data to change more or less, which is the result of the automatic correction of the model. According to the principle of seasonal adjustment, generally, the data will be greatly affected during periods closer to the latest data; the data will be less affected during periods farther away from the latest data. To facilitate users, while releasing current month-on-month data, the revised previous quarter-on-quarter data will be released through the website of the National Bureau of Statistics.
4. Quarterly GDP data quality assessment
4.1 Evaluation of basic data
For the statistical data and administrative record data used in GDP accounting, relevant departments will check their quality to ensure that the data reasonably reflects the actual situation of economic development. When the GDP accounting department obtains these basic data, it will check the completeness and accuracy of the data again to ensure that these data comply with the concepts and requirements of GDP accounting.
4.2 Evaluation of accounting methods
In GDP accounting, the GDP accounting department will revise China's quarterly GDP accounting method based on the actual situation of the growing economy and the continuously improved national economic accounting standards to ensure the rationality of the accounting method.
4.3 Evaluation of accounting results
After obtaining the quarterly GDP accounting results, the coordination of GDP project data, GDP data with related majors, departmental statistics and macro data must be checked to ensure that the GDP data and other major data are coordinated and matched. A system is being established to evaluate basic statistical data of various majors and departments with national economic accounting as the core framework.
4.4 Comparability of data
"China National Economic Accounting System (2016)" adopts the basic accounting principles, content and methods of the United Nations "National Accounting System (2008)", so GDP data is internationally comparable.
revised the historical data of quarterly GDP after conducting a national economic census or changing calculation methods and classification standards. Therefore, the quarterly GDP time series since the first quarter of 1992 is comparable.
5. Quarterly GDP data release
5.1 Release time
Quarterly GDP preliminary calculations are generally released around the 15th of the season, and the final verification of quarterly GDP is generally released in January of the following year. Regarding the release of the main statistical indicator , the National Bureau of Statistics will explain the release date in the "Main Statistics Information Release Schedule" released at the beginning of the year, and the GDP data will be released according to the prescribed schedule.
5.2 Release method
Preliminary accounting of quarterly GDP was announced at the press conference on the operation of the national economy in the quarter, the website of the National Bureau of Statistics (www.stats.gov.cn), and the "China Economic Prosperity Monthly Report"; the final verification of quarterly GDP was announced at the National Statistical Database (http://data.stats.gov.cn/), and the "China Economic Prosperity Monthly Report". For the quarterly GDP data time series since the first quarter of 1992, it can be queried through the national statistical database (http://data.stats.gov.cn/).
