Author: Didi RRY
When will liquor stocks usher in a tax increase?
didn't want to mention this matter, but recently I saw that the liquor stocks were too high and I couldn't help but say it.
Since the epidemic, the market has seen leading liquor stocks hit new highs. Although I understand that the market trend is reasonable, I cannot ignore the fact that many of them are caused by institutions and use the country's policy of promoting domestic demand to speculate on food and liquor stocks, while most trend investors participate in speculatively. In the end, the stock price has formed positive feedback, and the slope of the increase is getting steeper.
Will the growth rate of leading high-end liquor stocks increase significantly after the epidemic? So the valuation is reasonable now? I'm afraid most people won't believe it.
On the contrary, housing prices in first-tier cities have indeed risen a lot after the epidemic, especially Shenzhen. Last year, after Shenzhen raised its luxury housing line, housing prices began to rise. After the epidemic, housing prices did not pull back, but instead accelerated their rise.
Considering that real estate has been suppressed by policies, the policy of housing for living, not speculation has existed for a long time, which shows that the real market demand and improvement-oriented demand have been growing. In fact, this just reflects the progress of urbanization. In the
stock market, there are polarizations. Real estate companies that are suppressed by policies, such as Vanke A, Poly Real Estate , Jinde Group, Rongsheng Development, etc., both the leading central enterprises and private enterprises, are at historical low valuations. Liquor stocks are rising fiercely and gratifyingly, and compared with real estate 4-7 times PE.
However, liquor stocks have not been cut in half. Long-term investors know the story of liquor stocks in 2012-13. ST Shuijingfang and ST Jiugui, I'm afraid many newcomers don't know about it.
Now everyone is caring in liquor stocks, which is based on the increase in high-end liquor volume and price of liquor stocks. But will the policy one day the country suddenly increase taxes in the liquor industry? Did the liquor stocks collapse at that time? You must know that things will turn back when extremes are extremes. After this epidemic, the national fiscal deficit will inevitably increase a lot. The government must truly live a hard and tight life, and industries with high net profit margins with luxury goods will inevitably usher in a tax increase moment. Everyone was too high at the banquet, just afraid that the song would end and leave the slow people to pay.
Of course, maybe my concerns are redundant
