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dials the time back to 2020 and 2021. At that time, the Vietnamese stock market was in full swing, and investing in Vietnam became a trend, and "Vietnam's advantage" also became a popular online for a time. Vietnam has indeed developed well. From 1986 to 2021, Vietnam's actual GDP grew by 6.4%, and the per capita GDP of has also maintained steady improvement, making it a rising star in the Southeast Asian economy.
In 2020 and 2021, the Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Index rose from the lowest 649.1 point to the highest 1511.68 points, with the maximum increase of 132.89%.
As the stock market rises, more and more capital is paying attention to this market. Tianhong Fund established the only QDII fund (Tianhong Vietnam Market Stock A/C) in the market at that time. The share of this fund broke out in the same bull market, with a total share soaring from about 100 million shares to more than 1.5 billion shares, and its scale expanded by 1400%.
However, after entering 2022, the Vietnamese stock market could not hold on anymore and began to pull back. The Ho Chi Minh Index in Vietnam has fallen 32% so far this year, with the maximum retracement rate of 35% during the period, once falling below the 1,000-point integer.
The bull market in Vietnam was punctured Direct reason was that the United States hike rate . Vietnam has strict foreign exchange controls, so Vietnamese Dong has remained stable for so many years, but the United States' interest rate hike this year is too violent, and the Vietnamese Dong has to depreciate with the trend. The return of capital to the United States is the theme of the international financial market in 2022, and the Vietnamese stock market is also under pressure.
As an outward-oriented economy , foreign investment and foreign trade are the pillars of Vietnam's economy. The depreciation of the Vietnamese Dong helps to expand exports, but on the other hand, it is also susceptible to imported inflation. In addition to rice, Vietnam relies more on imports of grain, and its dependence on energy has continued to increase with the advancement of industrialization. Industrial production also requires a large amount of imported intermediates and raw materials.
In addition, the decline in Vietnamese stock market has also affected the Vietnamese government's rectification of the real estate industry , resulting in a significant adjustment in the steel and real estate sectors.
With the adjustment of the Vietnam stock market, the QDII fund that invests in the Vietnamese market in China, which is investing in the Vietnamese market, has also pulled back 33% from a high level, lower than the position at the second launch of the net value in 2021.
Now buy the bottom Vietnamese stock market, it seems much better than chasing highs at high levels, but it is best to consider: has the Vietnamese stock market bottomed out?
Ho Chi Minh Index is valuation of 11 times the price-to-earnings ratio, even lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index valuation. However, Vietnam's outward-oriented economy is easily affected by the international economic situation. If the United States does not hesitate to control inflation through a minor recession, Vietnam's exports will also be affected. It may be better to wait for the dollar index to truly peak.
So you can continue to observe, or buy in batches through fixed investment.
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