Today, I briefly talk about the learning curves of individuals and enterprises, and record random essays, but there are not many practical information.
I personally have a habit that I can’t be idle, and I feel uncomfortable all over when I am idle.
When you are at home, you will find a large number of videos to watch, mainly in the following three categories:
1: interview videos of various entrepreneurs, scientists, officials, and scholars.
It is undeniable that although the total population of the world exceeds 7 billion, the future development trend of society,
and the future life of ordinary people like you and me are all affected by the decisions of a very small number of people. The proportion of this part of the population may be less than 1%.
Some people in India decided to provoke trouble on the Sino-Indian border--there may be more than a dozen or dozens of people who make the decision, but it ultimately affected the lives of employees of Chinese-funded Internet companies in India, and even affected China's sales to Indian export companies.
Yangtze River Storage was only established in 2016, and by 2020, it had more than 5,000 employees, and the fate of more than 5,000 families was affected by a decision to establishYangtze River Storage five or six years ago.
Chip design graduates who graduated from the 2014 college entrance examination - undergraduate degree in 2018 - graduate degree in 2020 were not aware that when they took the college entrance examination 6 years ago, the salary given by local Chinese chip design companies would have increased so much compared to before.
When OPPO's senior executives decided to do chip design on a large scale three years ago, many students who graduated from OPPO's chip design this year may have changed their lives after graduation, and even the city they live in, may have been changed by this decision a few years ago.
Therefore, as ordinary people, it is very, very important to understand what elite are thinking and what elites plan to do.
Those decision makers who determine the future development of the city you live in, where is their real focus in the city you live in? Which area did they invest the most resources and the most hope?
Which area should you buy a house? Should you buy an old and dilapidated house in the area where the decision makers have devoted the most resources and efforts, or to buy a beautiful 100-square-meter commercial housing in the marginal area?
The company and industry you work in, and the ones that determine the development direction of this industry are often the executive groups of several large companies.
As an insider, do you know the names and resumes of these executives? Have you seen their remarks?
Have you seen what they think about the future development direction of the industry and the company when they were interviewed?
Although there is a large industry, there are actually not many core groups, just a few dozen people.
is very simple. When everyone in an industry is worried about overcapacity, as employees of the industry, it is easy to realize that revenue growth will be more difficult in the next few years, because overcapacity will almost inevitably lead to fierce price wars, decline in profits, and company bankruptcy and layoffs.
2: A documentary recording the lives of civilians.
As long as you look closely, you can see a lot of things.
For example, video reports and documentaries such as fresh graduates in the graduation season looking for jobs and social recruitment in major talent markets.
Follow the students’ job search process. You can see which majors are more difficult to find a job and have lower salary this year?
Which majors are easier for students to find jobs and have higher salaries?
In addition to computers, what other good promising majors can be chosen?
If you have a child who wants to take the college entrance examination within two or three years, is this very helpful in helping your child choose a major?
CCTV filmed a documentary, which was broadcast in 2019. One episode talked about the lives of several professionals in Shenzhen.
I also posted on Weibo.
One is to follow the daily work schedule and arrangements of executives of CICC. They get up at five o'clock every morning because they have a meeting at 7 o'clock in the morning before the stock market opens to listen to researchers' sharing and reporting on financial information, so that they can make timely decisions after the stock market opens.
After reading it, I thought, let me get up at five in the morning, have a meeting at seven in the morning, and I can’t take a vacation for a long time, and it feels difficult for me to do it. This means falling asleep at ten in the night of the first night and getting up at five in the next day can ensure 7 hours of sleep.
Forget it, even if the salary of executives is high, the researchers also have to hold meetings and report together at 7 o'clock in the morning. It can be seen that they get up very early. At least I don't like to get up early, so I am not suitable for this type of position.
There is another part about the headhunting company. The headhunting company just happened to receive the director of a Shenzhen Card Gift Company with a sales of 150 million yuan. The director was from 1983 and graduated from Hunan University. He wanted to jump from this traditional factory to an intelligent manufacturing factory.
The manager of the factory talked very skillfully, but the low annual salary made me a little unbelievable. His current annual salary is only 500,000 yuan, and he hopes to increase by 15% after changing jobs. It can be seen that the salary of traditional labor-intensive enterprises is really not good, and a factory manager is not as good as an ordinary engineer in a large Internet factory.
However, this paragraph also reveals a message. As an elite figure in the labor-intensive industry, the factory manager's goal is to switch to a factory that does intelligent manufacturing. It can be seen that in 2019, intelligent manufacturing has become a relatively clear trend in Shenzhen's manufacturing industry.
Another section is Sanhe Talent Market. A young man who graduated from high school in Sichuan who worked in Shenzhen for three years has done quality inspection and telephone sales one after another. He happened to meet a large factory recruiting technician apprentices. The young man's expected monthly salary is 6,000. He should have seen that the salary stated in the recruitment is 6-7k. The man in the recruitment uniform said, "You have no experience and you have to train you for 3 months, and you can only give you about 5,000." It seems that the young man is moved.
I noticed that this young man’s work experience is actually worthless. He has no technical content in quality inspection and telephone sales. He is just a high school graduate, but it seems that he has the opportunity to be a technical apprentice. This surprised me a little. Is it because it is becoming increasingly difficult to recruit and retain people in the manufacturing industry?
3: Financial programs, especially programs that go to factories and exhibitions for interviews.
The previous " American Factory " was good, and it clearly explained the various conflicts caused by the establishment of a Chinese company Fuyao Glass in the United States. CCTV also has related reports on the same company, one of which is very interesting. I wrote it in the article at that time.
Cao Dewang mentioned two advantages of making in China in an interview with a reporter.
One is that the labor cost is only one-eighth of that of the United States, and the other is that China's labor productivity is higher than that of the United States.
If we just look at this interview, we can only come to one conclusion, that is, the labor productivity of Chinese workers is higher than that of American workers, but there is no specific concept.
But by chance, I found the answer in an issue of " China Financial Report " broadcast in October 2016.
Whether it is an American documentary or a Chinese news report, it reflects that due to the long-term deindustrialization of the United States, it is difficult to find young workers, and a large number of experienced people are over 50 years old.
In 2016, Fuyao mobilized Chinese workers from China, in the United States factories, and American workers who have been trained and worked for more than half a year to conduct production efficiency tests to press the film on the automobile glass.
Chinese and American workers compete on both lines, and both sides also know that it is a competition.
Fuyao Company set a production quota of 800 pieces. In the end, Chinese workers can produce 1,011 pieces, which exceeds the requirements by 25%.
American workers can only produce 792 pieces, which does not meet the requirements. However, this has already made Chinese managers overjoyed, because American workers' daily work efficiency is only more than 500 pieces, and it is through competition that it has stimulated competition awareness to 792 pieces.
In other words, in this case, the real work efficiency of American workers is only 50% of that of China.
If you don’t see this actual test result, who can know that the difference in work efficiency between Chinese and American workers is so amazing?
The aging in the United States is much more serious than before, and the racial structure of the population has also undergone tremendous changes. At the same time, employment has flowed to a relatively relaxed service industry. It is very difficult to find workers with high labor efficiency.
people are gone, how to support large-scale reindustrialization? It is possible for China's industries to move out of Southeast Asia and India. To be honest, the possibility is too low. The reason why Fuyao set up a factory in the United States is that glass is set up nearby near automobile factories. Long-distance transportation of glass is easy to be damaged, and it is also a requirement of American automobile companies.
The various mentioned above, read frequently, constantly persistently, combined with more learning and on-site visits, can gradually help establish a correct understanding and understand the changes in the world we live in.
However, this personal learning curve requires long-term persistence, and it is necessary to summarize and leave a written record so that the accumulation of knowledge points can be achieved.
The development of domestic semiconductor that we are very concerned about now can actually follow the above principles.
For example, the elites of the semiconductor industry think about the development of this industry? If you read a lot of various remarks, you will find that even if you are an insider in the industry, everyone has different opinions.
Here I take Zhang Zhongmou as an example. In January 2018, he was interviewed by a reporter from Phoenix TV's "Pilot" and the video was tens of minutes long. I watched it and summarized it. I thought the two most valuable points he mentioned were
. The first is why TSMC could develop.
. Zhang Zhongmou replied that when TSMC was established in 1987, there were only more than 20 companies in the world that only did chip design.
. However, engineers from many large companies wanted to start a business, but the cost of building factories themselves was too high, so there was no way, so TSMC decided to only do OEM and not design.
At that time, the world was full of IDM companies, Texas Instruments, , Intel , all of them made their own wafers, and there were basically no major manufacturers specializing in OEMs in the market. TSMC seized this opportunity and entered the foundry field. By 1997-1998, there were hundreds of chip design companies around the world. At this time, the scale of chip foundry had gradually increased.
This shows that the reason why TSMC has succeeded is that it is very important to see and seize historical opportunities.
The second point is that in the same interview, Zhang Zhongmou also replied, note that the following is completely the original words, I compared the video to record it one by one:
"I am very optimistic about the development of semiconductors in the mainland. If it is the two aspects of design and manufacturing, I think it is probably more beneficial to the development of the mainland to focus on design."
reporter continued to ask:
"When it comes to manufacturing, you will worry about the mainland. Are there some competition in terms? Because after all, in the mainland, he can do his best to develop an industry, and in fact, many industries have achieved this curve. "
Zhang Zhongmou:
", of course, they are already competing now, competing with us, but this competition in process is not just about spending a lot of money, and the whole country can be achieved. "
reporter continued to ask: Is there anything you think they can't do?
Zhang Zhongmou:
"What I want to talk about is the so-called "learning curve". If you have been in this industry for a long time and your past experience is much more than this new competitor, then you are in the long term. As long as you don't waste your opportunities yourself, you can maintain your advantage for a long time." Note that this interview was broadcast in January 2018. At this time, the Sino-US trade war has not yet broken out, and ZTE and Huawei have not been sanctioned. Zhang Zhongmou said that the development design of the mainland is more favorable. This conclusion seems obviously wrong today, and he did not expect that the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war and the competition between China and the United States will be so fierce.
Mainland China must achieve independence and independence in the entire industrial chain, and there is no other way to go.
In addition, Zhang Zhongmou believes that semiconductor manufacturing is more difficult because the learning curve cannot overtake on the curve. He must gradually accumulate experience from a lower level process step by step to move upward. Therefore, TSMC will maintain its advantages in the long run.
Facts also proved that what he said is correct.
and SMIC is expected to be mass-produced with TSMC's 7nm N+2 process from 2022 to 2023.
By that time, the difference between TSMC's technical distance is still about 4-5 years (TSMC's 2018 mass-produced 7nm in Q2)
, and TSMC has already started mass-produced 5nm in Q2 this year.
The learning curve of enterprises is actually the learning curve of people. The core is that there is such a big gap between people
. SMIC cannot smooth it out in a short period of time. It can only increase resource investment and accelerate the learning curve process, especially increase investment in people.
. At present, most of SMIC's expenditures are on the equipment, and the salary and benefits are still not very strong.
According to the announcement released by SMIC on May 5, it will be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
raises 40% of RMB 20 billion, or about 8 billion, and will be invested in SMIC South to expand production capacity;
20% is used to reserve R&D funds;
40% is used to supplement working capital and reduce the debt-to-asset ratio.
In 2020, the salary of domestic master's graduates in chip design is generally between 15k-20k, and the higher is still much higher than this.
SMIC's monthly salary for fresh graduates of 985 students is much lower than the lower limit of this range. SMIC is in high-cost cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. For example, SMIC's advanced process factory is in Shanghai. If graduates from other places do not have enough income level support, it is not easy to settle in this city.
This is not conducive to SMIC's attracting outstanding talents, nor is it conducive to catching up with the learning curve.
The accumulation of experience is so important to the advancement of chip process technology. Low wages are first of all, but lack of attractiveness to high-level talents. Secondly, after working for a few years, it is easy to change jobs with experience, causing losses to the company.
I think this is a big concern. In addition to going public to raise funds,
is on the evening of May 15, the same day when the United States announced restrictions on the supply of foundry factories to Huawei,
SMIC issued an announcement stating that it would sign a new capital increase and share expansion agreement on the same day. The second phase of the National Integrated Circuit Fund and the second phase of the Shanghai Integrated Circuit Fund will inject US$1.5 billion and US$750 million into SMIC South, a subsidiary of SMIC Holdings, respectively, totaling US$2.25 billion.
It can be said that the financial support for SMIC has become unprecedentedly large, all of which is to speed up the completion of the learning curve.
Just as the leading domestic semiconductor chip design company HiSilicon was the first to increase its salary on a large scale in the campus recruitment in 2018,
led to the increase in campus recruitment salary in the entire industry that year, attracting many outstanding talents to flock to the chip design industry and accelerating the progress of the learning curve, in the semiconductor foundry industry, there should also be companies in the semiconductor foundry industry that year, which will accelerate the learning curve process of my country's semiconductor manufacturing.
Domestic semiconductor design is now hot, with salary rising, and a large number of funds and outstanding talents pouring in. To be honest, I am not worried about the rapid improvement of its technical capabilities.
But semiconductor manufacturing is different. At present, it is obvious that semiconductor manufacturing is a bottleneck in my country's development compared to semiconductor design, but the salary level is much lower, which is completely unfavorable to shorten the learning curve. Going further, this will also affect the progress of upstream domestic semiconductor production equipment and materials, because they all rely on technical verification in domestic OEM factories.
Why do I think Huawei should do small-scale IDM? I imagine that when Huawei recruits fresh graduates to do semiconductor manufacturing with a monthly salary of 16k-20k, those foundries in the industry that only give fresh graduates a monthly salary of more than 10k will inevitably follow up on salary increases and attract more outstanding talents to enter semiconductor manufacturing.
This is also beneficial to Huawei, because Huawei has an extremely eagerness for advanced production lines to de-beautify.
