Looking back at the Hong Kong stock market in 2021, it is not an exaggeration to describe it as "terrible". As of the close of December 31, the Hang Seng Index fell by as much as 14%. The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 32.7%. If calculated from a high level, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by as much as 50%. Among them, the S&P 500 rose more than 27%, the ChiNext Index rose 12%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.2%, and the Hang Seng Index successfully ranked last.
Data source: Wind Information, unit %,
We are the worst bearish Hang Seng Technology Index, there are 30 components . As of the close of December 31, 2021, there were only 4 companies that closed up for the whole year, accounting for about 13% of the total, and 26 companies that fell, accounting for 87% of the total, of which 6 companies that cut halfway, accounting for as high as 20%.
The biggest increase in for the whole year is Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK), with an increase of 46.1%. The second is the ill-fated Lenovo Group , with an increase of 26%, Haier Smart Home 19%, and NetEase 7%, which is really commendable. The biggest drops are the ones that have been cut in half: Alibaba Health , ranked first with a drop of 71.2%, Ping An Good Doctor : -69.8%, Autohome : -68.0%.
Why do you want to ask: Should Hong Kong stocks continue to fall or bottom out and rebound? If you missed three years of bull market, will the Hong Kong stock market be better in 2022? Don’t worry, there must be a road before the car arrives at the mountain. Let’s take a look at the policy news first.
2022 Hong Kong stock policy: Technological innovation, carbon neutrality is the focus
There are still many benefits for the Hong Kong stock market in 2022, which can also give us more expectations. Among them, the "Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan" proposes that by 2025, the added value of my country's core industrial industry accounts for GDP increased from 7.8% in 2020 to 10%, and the issue of supporting the development of the digital economy has been mentioned many times in the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, and the policy encouragement orientation is obvious.
The traditional driving force of my country's economic growth corresponds to this stage of industrial civilization. With the end of my country's industrialization process, they are gradually fading out. To cope with the decline in total factor productivity of , we need to find new momentum for economic growth and a huge amount of investment and financing for basic (basic) and core industries and fields. This includes: the industry's digital transformation , " new infrastructure ", carbon neutrality, and the more thorough reform and opening up to improve resource allocation efficiency. Combining these fields together will put my country in a relatively unique position - it is possible that after completing the industrialization process, it will still maintain a relatively high growth rate of total factor productivity.
With this as the background, the investment significance of carbon neutrality and 5G is particularly obvious. In the "carbon" era, the scarce "carbon emission rights" enter production functions and consumer utility functions, bringing the possibility of a paradigm revolution in economic research. my country's carbon neutrality goal is time-consuming, heavy tasks and difficult, and requires huge investment. It is estimated that the dual-carbon target will be achieved, my country's carbon neutral market size will reach 255 trillion yuan by 2050 (at the unchanged price in 2020). These investments will become one of the biggest driving forces for China's economic momentum transformation. The huge amount of investment is invested in the node industry of carbon production networks, and with the transmission of the network, it produces a powerful multiple effect. Investment and financing, technological changes, industrial policies and business model innovations around the node industry will determine the path to carbon neutrality in my country.
5G As a core component of my country's re-industrialization infrastructure, it is an important basic core area. Our estimates show that under the benchmark scenario, the 5G industry import will bring 31.21 trillion yuan of new GDP during the period 2021-2030. If the industry introduces innovation more actively and the participation of micro-entities in the market is more enthusiastic, the added value brought by 5G application scenarios may far exceed 31.21 trillion yuan, or even reach 60 trillion yuan. What kind of added value will 5G bring is worth imagining.
htmlOn October 26, the "Action Plan for Carbon Peak Before 2030" clearly states that the "Plan" will vigorously develop new energy. Comprehensively promote the large-scale development and high-quality development of wind power and solar power generation, and further improve the renewable energy power consumption guarantee mechanism.By 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts. The green new energy industry has huge space, photovoltaic wind power has clear ideas, and the power grid, energy storage, hydrogen energy ushers in an opportunity.
At the same time, according to the research of GF Securities Group, Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone to "stabilize growth". The meeting pointed out that all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macroeconomic economy, and all parties should actively introduce policies that are conducive to economic stability, and make appropriate efforts to advance policies. Under this clear adjustment, it is expected that various types of macroeconomic policies will be introduced intensively in early 2022, which is positive and effective for the market and will help balance the equilibrium of fixed asset investment and effective repair of domestic demand.
Monday policy has room for further increase. The central bank pointed out that it will "increase the intensity of cross-cycle adjustments, combining them with counter-cyclical adjustments", and "more proactive and more support for the real economy". Under the guidance of two "increasing efforts" and one "more proactive and proactive", further increase in monetary policy is still expected.
As the policies gradually become clear in 2022, with the support of these favorable policies, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to attract a return of value, especially the "hardly affected areas" of the technology sector may reverse its dilemma.
2022 investment opportunities: Hong Kong stock technology sector
Looking ahead to 2022, I think we should focus on the investment opportunities for the return of Hong Kong stocks' value. Especially in the early stage, affected by anti-monopoly policies, after experiencing heavy hammers in 2021, the valuation of technology sector has fallen to a historical low, with greater growth elasticity and long-term investment value in the future. The time for recovery has come.
I think China's future major investment opportunities should focus on two dimensions: one is domestic demand-driven, and the other is technological innovation.
So both A shares and Hong Kong stocks are these two trends, because it is different from the past 20 years. China has completed the hundreds of years of Western countries in decades, and now it has reached a critical stage of transformation. It is a process from quantitative change to qualitative change. This process is driven by domestic demand and scientific and technological innovation.
first type of opportunity, driven by domestic demand, including water, milk, grain and other consumer-related stocks. It also complies with the national policies to regulate and stimulate consumption.
The focus is on the second type of opportunity. Supported by the core driving force of technological innovation, Taojin Hong Kong stocks has a high technological content, focusing on the soft Internet, including e-commerce, new Internet applications, cloud, digital economy, etc., as well as some advanced manufacturing , which has certain competitiveness in the world.
optimistic about sector 1: vehicle optical concept - represented by Sunny Optical Technology
benefited from the advance arrival of new energy and automotive intelligence. Looking forward to 2022, we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of in-car lenses, car cameras, , lidar , display screens, HUD, and we are also optimistic about the gradual transformation of optical companies and panel companies from Tier2 to Tier1 to open up their imagination space.
In the stock market, especially in the bear market, the strong are getting stronger. Index weighted stocks and industry leading stocks may experience continuous valuation improvements. For example, Sunny Optical Technology, which led the Hang Seng Technology Index in 2021, is still optimistic.
htmlOn December 24, Sunny Optics announced that it would agree to inject RMB 1.8 billion into Chongqing Ant Consumer Finance to subscribe to 6% of the company's equity . On December 30, Sunny Optics Technology (02382.HK) won JPMorgan Chase & Co. The average price per share was HK$2466,382, and the capital involved was approximately HK$75.874 million. Today, JPMorgan Chase & Co's latest holdings was 66.0826 million shares, and the proportion of holdings rose from 5.99% to 6.02%, which can be said to be frequent positive news.
optimistic sector 2: technology e-commerce stocks - represented by Alibaba as
html On November 5, according to the latest data released by Berkshire Hathaway , the company's director and vice chairman Charlie Munger increased its holdings in Alibaba, and the number of shares increased this time was 300,000 shares (about 36 million US dollars). Coincidentally, many bigwigs also increased their positions in Tencent Alibaba. Duan Yongping and JPMorgan Chase also maintained a positive and optimistic attitude towards Pinduoduo . It is a consensus that Chinese Internet companies are underestimated. Although it has not stopped falling, from the ambiguous attitude of the bigwigs, it shows that capital has maintained a positive attitude towards the future of Chinese Internet companies. After all, e-commerce, new Internet applications, cloud and digital economy are the main themes of China's development in the future. I believe that the arrival of dawn will not be too far away.
optimistic about sector 3: hard-core technology stocks -represented by Lenovo Group
When it comes to Lenovo Group, everyone first thought of PC computers. In fact, this is not the case. In the era of digital transformation, Lenovo has done a lot of work. To talk about advanced manufacturing and hard-core technology stocks, there are many benchmark models in A-share market , CATL , Gree , Midea, etc., but there are only a handful of them in the Hong Kong stock market.
Lenovo started early in the field of intelligent manufacturing and is confident about how to achieve digitalization and intelligence in all aspects of production. In recent years, Lenovo has continuously increased its investment in the direction of industry intelligence: it continues to carry out new intelligent manufacturing practices in its own factories, and intelligent production lines such as "Mercury Line", "Nezha Line", and "Quantum Line" have been put into production one after another; based on the 3S strategy and new IT technology architecture, focusing on the "Qingtian" engine, it actively promotes the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and ecological partners to achieve digital and intelligent transformation; by carrying out the "Smart China Tour" activities, it will drive the intelligent transformation of thousands of industries, experience the future of intelligence close, use practical actions to promote the intelligent process of manufacturing industry, and realize the vision of a smart China...
2021, Lenovo is a tortuous year, failing in Science and Technology Innovation Board , and self-media stirs up the storm.
But Lenovo showed strong resilience, and the stock price rose against the trend one after another. closed up 26% in 2021, and slapped the bears in the face, and even hit a new high for a period. I think this cannot be the so-called "Own shareholders grit their teeth and save the market" , but it comes from market recognition. Lenovo Group's business lines are stable and improving, PC is the world's number one, and SSG business has become the core growth point. In the third quarter report disclosed by Lenovo, ISG also achieved break-even for the first time, and even the mobile phone business has the momentum to enter the first echelon.
Now, the digital intelligence wave is coming. As the core target of new infrastructure, Lenovo Group, a ICT company with a revenue of over 400 billion and a valuation of only 100 billion, is also time to usher in a value revaluation with the Hong Kong stock market.
2022, summarize experience and set sail from a new perspective. What will always be left for those who have confidence in him in the future.
