Editor of every business: He Jianchuan
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Source: Daoda (WeChat ID: daoda1997)
The entangled May market has just ended, and the June market ushered in a long positive line. Such a good start is really exciting!
Shanghai Composite Index rose 63.08 points in volume, closing at 2915.43 points, an increase of 2.21%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.43%. After today's sharp rise, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the half-year line suppression, but was still below the annual line. Next, how likely is the market to form a real breakthrough?
message inventory
The market has risen sharply today, and there is no news on the news side. Let’s first sort it out.
Last weekend, the Shanghai Stock Exchange stated that it would study the news of introducing a single T+0 transaction, which would have a great effect on the market's surge today.
Last night, Da Ge had analyzed that it may not be a short-term thing to launch it in the end. Regulators will be more cautious. Even if it is to launch it, it will be piloted in part now. In addition, regulators will also observe the market's reaction in recent times. If the atmosphere of hype is too fierce, it is not ruled out that it will be more cautious.
Last night we said that Science and Technology Innovation Board may become a T+0 pilot in the future, because the current limit on the rise and fall has been magnified to 20%. It is very likely to continue as a new test field, which is also an important means to stimulate market vitality.
So, today's Science and Technology Innovation Board is still very active. Stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board rose across the board today, with Lingzhi Software and Wealth Trend hitting the daily limit, and many other companies such as UCDE and Aofu Environmental Protection rose by more than 10%.
I would like to add one thing today. On the issue of T+0 testing field, if the management does not want the market to fluctuate too violently, it may choose sectors with high institutional participation. Therefore, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index component stocks , or Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index component stocks may also be the first to pilot T+0. In addition, if the cross-market pilot is considered and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is also involved, it is also possible that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index components are also possible.
Another news, Da Ge mentioned in the "Daoda Morning Review" this morning that Huawei concept stocks and chip stocks may have a turnaround. In the early stage, Huawei concept stocks suffered a certain blow due to pressure from the United States. However, over time, the possibility of peak-loop rotation emerged. According to the Securities Times, in order to save Huawei orders, TSMC has recruited new executives to lobby the United States to relax its production of Huawei orders.
Today, chips, consumer electronics and other sectors collectively rose sharply. Last year, the super bull stock of consumer electronics, Wanderer, hit the daily limit strongly today after a sharp adjustment this year, and hit a new high after the resumption of rights. In addition, let’s look at the performance of ETFs . Chip ETFs rose 5.62% today, semiconductor 50 ETFs rose 4.91%, and technology ETFs rose 3.92%.
After the market today, there is another news that is also very important. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has accepted the application for listing of SMIC Integrated Circuit Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Science and Technology Innovation Board, with a planned financing amount of 20 billion yuan. The sponsors are Haitong Securities and CICC . With this news, SMIC's concept stocks may react again tomorrow.
northbound funds
Today's stimulating market is naturally indispensable for northbound funds. The Shanghai Stock Connect net purchase was 4.6 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect net purchase was 7.3 billion yuan, with a total net inflow of more than 11.9 billion yuan. Judging from this data, it is enough to reflect the strong confidence of northbound funds in the future of A shares . Northbound funds have always been bold and dared to act, and are optimistic about A-shares. Without saying much, just spend money!
What stocks are northbound funds driving? After-market data showed that northbound funds netted Kweichow Moutai .205 billion yuan, net purchases of Hengrui Medicine 339 million yuan, Ping An of China 435 million yuan, Wuliangye .473 billion yuan, Luxshare Precision 499 million yuan, and BOE 446 million yuan.
Let me say a few more words about liquor stocks. The stocks that northbound funds bought were white horse stocks such as liquor and medicine. Today, Kweichow Moutai broke through 1,400 yuan, setting a record high, while Wuliangye rose 7%. Regarding liquor stocks, the institution's attitude is very clear, but it is optimistic.
According to the latest research report, CICC has raised the target price of Wuliangye to 181 yuan. CICC believes that the terminal sales of Wuliangye have returned to the normal level of 70% to 80%, and are showing a trend of month-on-month improvement. In addition, the research report of Great Wall Securities has raised the target price of Wuliangye to 199 yuan, which is still 25% room to close today.
About Hong Kong stocks
A-shares rose sharply today, and there is another factor, which is actually related to Hong Kong stocks. At the end of last month, A-shares weakened and adjusted because the Hong Kong stock market performed poorly. On May 22, the Hang Seng Index plummeted by 5.56% in one day, which objectively dragged down A-shares.
But today, the Hong Kong stock market ushered in a retaliatory rebound. The Hang Seng Index once soared by more than 800 points during the session, and finally rose 771.05 points, closing at 23,732.52 points, an increase of 3.36%.
It is difficult to analyze the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks and is very complicated, but we can tell if we look at the performance of a company, that is, Hong Kong Exchange (00388, HK), which is both an exchange and a listed company. Today, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's share price rose by more than 4.5% to close at HK$282.8. The historical high of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange stock price was HK$289.73 set in January 2018, and is currently approaching its historical high.
However, technically, although the Hang Seng Index rebounded strongly, the pressure is still not small, and it has not yet escaped the pressure of the trend.
sand table deduction
finally answered the question in the title of the article, how likely is the market to break through?
As the saying goes, "A positive line changes faith." Today, this long positive line is very exciting to popularity. If the volume can continue to increase tomorrow, the suppression of the Shanghai Composite Index annual line may be easily pierced like a piece of paper.
However, we can't speak too much. It's often the time when Da Ge is a little excited, the market will fall into adjustment again. The market is like this "willful".
But then again, is it really that important to suppress the Shanghai Composite Index annual line? Maybe it's just an emotional indicator. Among the main indexes, only the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite Index 50 index are still below the annual line, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Shenzhen Composite Index, SME Index , and ChiNext Index are all above the annual line. Especially the ChiNext Index, I felt that it was going to go bad before, but after two consecutive days of surge, I became optimistic again.
In fact, no matter how the market index runs in a tangled manner, there are really a lot of market opportunities. The June market is just beginning, and we have just begun to welcome the "new track" of the A-share market.
If you want to know where the future opportunities are, please follow the latest "Stock Yue Qi Tan" launched by Daodahao WeChat official account.
Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Position Reference
Date: June 1, 2020
Today's Position: 50%
Tomorrow Position Plan: 50%
1. This position is a non-real position reference set in combination with trend research and is not used as a basis for buying and selling. Please pay attention to investment risks.
2. The tracking target of this position is the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index to achieve quantitative tracking of the index and avoid the impact of the differences in individual stocks holdings.
( Zhang Daoda )
According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operational suggestions and the risk of entering the market is at your own risk.
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