Pre-market market trends
1. On October 11 (Tuesday) U.S. stock Before the market, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.21%, S&P 500 index futures fell 0.32%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.37%.
2. As of press time, Germany DAX index rose 0.05%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.65%, France CAC40 index rose 0.24%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.01%.
3. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 2.01% to US$91.78 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 1.75% to $93.15 per barrel.
Market News
Biden Export ban disrupts the market, and the global chip industry's market value evaporates US$240 billion. After the Biden administration announced a comprehensive set of semiconductor export control measures last Friday, chip-related stocks such as Japan and South Korea plummeted, causing the industry's global market value to evaporate by more than US$240 billion. TSMC, the world's largest foundry chip maker, plummeted 8.3% on Tuesday in the Taiwan stock market. The share prices of Samsung Electronics and Tokyo Electronics also fell. The news also triggered the Philadelphia Stock Exchange semiconductor index fell more than 9% for two consecutive days, and fell to its lowest level since November 2020 at the close of Monday. In addition, these restrictions are expected to have far-reaching impacts. This move will also have a chain impact on the supply chain of the entire technology industry and bring more and more challenges to technology stock . The restrictions are "bad news" for global semiconductors, Nomura Holdings analyst David Wong wrote in a note Monday.
"Mistress Mu" wrote to Feder : Stop radical rate hikes , otherwise it will aggravate the risk of deflation. Kathy Wood, CEO of ARK Investment Management, wrote a letter to the Fed, saying that the Fed's tough stance on inflation may be wrong and warned that the Fed may be increasing the risk of deflation. The Fed should learn from commodity prices rather than looking at the employment and price indexes in the previous months, and this approach to policymaking means that the biggest economic risk in the future is deflation, not inflation. Wood believes that these indicators are lagging and outdated, and in contrast, the Fed should pay more attention to some leading indicators. Wood pointed out in the letter that the prices of most commodities have peaked and are all falling year-on-year. Additionally, manufacturers and retailers over-order a lot of items in the process of dealing with supply chain bottlenecks, and today they are facing huge inventory.
Former Fed Chairman Bernanke : The situation in the United States is not as bad as it was in 2008. Former Fed Chairman Bernanke said on Monday: "In the Fed's massive interest rate hike, the U.S. economy has shown signs of cooling down, but it certainly won't fall into a terrible dilemma like it did during the 2008 financial crisis. Despite this, as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues and the surge in the US dollar puts pressure on the global economy , various markets have financial stability problems. Even if financial problems have not yet appeared, over time, if the problems that make financial situation worse, it will aggravate the problem. So I think this is something we really have to pay close attention to." It is reported that Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig won the 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics to "recognize their research on banks and financial crises", which made Bernanke the first Federal Reserve chairman to win the Nobel Prize in Economics .
CEO of Morgan Stanley warned: The United States may fall into an economic recession in the next 6-9 months, and the S&P 500 may easily fall by 20%. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned on Monday that several very serious adverse factors could put the U.S. and global economies in recession by mid-next year. Indicators that issue warning signals include the impact of out-of-control inflation, the impact of interest rate rises beyond expectations, and the unknown consequences of quantitative austerity and the Russian-Ukrainian war. Dimon points out that these are very serious things, and they may push the United States and the world into some degree of recession after 6 to 9 months, while Europe has entered a recession. When asked about your opinion on the S&P 500, Dimon said it could easily drop 20% from its current level and that the process would be more painful than the first time.Damon has said that JPMorgan Chase is preparing for the economic "hurricane" caused by the Federal Reserve and Russia-Ukraine war, and is very conservative on its balance sheet.
IMF and World Bank warns the global recession risk to rise. The president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the president of the World Bank warned that the risk of a global economy falling into a recession is rising, as slowing growth in developed economies and accelerated inflation forced the Fed to continue hikes in interest rates to increase debt pressure on developing countries. The IMF expects about one-third of the world's economy to shrink for at least two consecutive quarters this year and next, and by 2026, the lost output will reach $4 trillion. Meanwhile, World Bank President David Malpass, who spoke with Georgieva , also warned of the "real danger" of a global economy contraction next year. He said the stronger dollar is weakening the currencies of developing countries and increasing their debt to "expensive" levels.
Japan will relax border controls from October 11 to revitalize the tourism industry to boost the economy. From October 11, Japan will relax border controls, resume personal free travel and visa-free visits to Japan, and cancel the daily limit on entry. Japanese authorities hope to revitalize Japan's tourism industry in the short term to boost the economy. With the yen exchange rate against the US dollar at a 25-year low and relatively mild inflation, travel to Japan is attractive to some foreign tourists. It is expected that Japan's reopening will stimulate economic growth beyond the pre-pandemic tourism boom. Before the epidemic, Japan was at the peak of a tourism boom, with inbound tourists reaching a record 32 million in 2019. According to a recent report by Goldman Sachs economists, tourists' annual entry spending could increase by 32% to 6.6 trillion yen (about $45.4 billion) after Japan reopens its borders in 2019.
stocks messages
Apple (AAPL.US) Australian employees launched a strike on wages and benefits issues. An Australian union official said on Tuesday that the union representing Apple Australian employees voted to strike due to lack of progress in wage negotiations. An hourly strike scheduled for October 18 will cease some stores and increase labor-management relations pressure the company faces elsewhere. The union said the planned strike would involve about 150 of Apple's 4,000 employees in Australia, represented by the Retail and Fast Food Workers Union (RAFFWU), limiting most of Apple's customer service at least three of its 22 stores in the country. In Australia, Apple proposed a series of new regular salary increases and salary increases in August, triggering a round of union negotiations. In September this year, RAFFWU and two other unions found an industry arbitration institution to cooperate, hoping to have more time to negotiate. When
Adobe (ADBE.US) was sold out in the market, Mutou bought more than 20,000 shares again. As the Adobe (ADBE.US) stock price approached its mid-September low, Cathie Wood's Ark Next Generation Internet ETF bought another 23,605 shares of Adobe on Monday, after the fund bought 22,874 shares on September 19. According to data, before the recent purchase, Ark Investment Management Co., Ltd. held less than 1,200 shares of the company since mid-2021. It is understood that Adobe suffered its biggest single-day decline since 2010 a few days ago. At that time, Adobe announced its largest acquisition of all time, acquiring software design startup FiGMa for about $20 billion. After the news was announced, Adobe's stock price plummeted.
PayPal (PYPL.US) revoked the decision to fine users who spread false information $2,500. PayPal on Monday revoked a $2,500 fine for users who spread false information. This move has been strongly opposed by users. PayPal fell 6.27% as of Monday's closing. A PayPal spokesman said: "PayPal will not fine people for false information, and this wording is never intended to be written into our policies. We are sorry for the confusion caused." According to media reports last week, PayPal released a new policy that prohibits users from sending, posting or posting false information using their services.The new policy was originally scheduled to come into effect on November 3. The new policy states that customers may have to pay $2,500 in damages for each violation. Former PayPal president David Marcus slammed the policy on Twitter on Saturday, saying the new policy "goes against everything I believe."
Challenge Tesla (TSLA.US)! General Motors (GM.US) will launch its own solar and energy storage systems. GM said it plans to provide its own solar power generation and storage systems from later next year to compete with Tesla's energy storage business Powerwall. GM announced in a statement that the company will set up a new business unit, GM Energy, to partner with solar technology and energy services provider SunPower Corp. (SPWR.US), to provide solar panels and home energy storage for residential and commercial users. The plan is similar to Tesla's energy business, with the automaker making panels that charge batteries and power homes during night or during power outages. The home energy system will be launched along with the electric version of Chevrolet Silverado of universal and is expected to start production next year.
The disaster will not happen alone, and the Credit Suisse (CS.US) foreign exchange market manipulation case is about to begin. Amid bankruptcy rumors, Credit Suisse is facing another U.S. class action lawsuit . The bank is the last bank to face lawsuits among 16 banks. Credit Suisse is accused of conspiring with others to manipulate the foreign exchange market. A group of investors, including pension funds, accused Credit Suisse of using online chat rooms to manipulate currency spreads between the end of 2007 and 2013, and the selection of a jury will begin on Tuesday. The lawsuit said it was completed with traders from other international banking giants, including Citigroup (C.US), UBS Group (UBS.US) and Barclays Bank (BCS.US). For Credit Suisse, the trial comes amid a turbulent time for the company, and the bank is working to assure investors of its capital strength and liquidity ahead of its second restructuring in many years. The restructuring may involve significant cuts to the investment banking division.
Joby (JOBY.US) rose nearly 17% before the market trading and received a US$60 million equity investment in Delta Air Lines (DAL.US). Delta has announced a $60 million equity investment in Joby Aviation and has established a partnership with the air taxi startup for many years. The partnership will begin in New York and Los Angeles to provide Delta customers with sustainable “home to airport” delivery services. It is understood that the two companies will work together to integrate a service operated by Joby Aviation into Delta’s customer-facing channels, allowing passengers from New York and Los Angeles to book seats for short trips to city airports when booking Delta’s airline trips. The partnership will operate independently in the United States and the United Kingdom within five years of business launch, with the possibility of extending this period. As of press time, Joby Aviation's stock price rose nearly 17% to $4.50 before the U.S. stock market.
Important economic data and event predictions
Beijing time 20:45: European Central Bank chief economist Lian En delivered a speech.
The next day at 00:00 am Beijing time: 2022 FOMC vote committee and Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester delivered a speech at New York Economic Club . You can pay attention to whether its hawkish tone will ease.
The next day at 02:35 am Beijing time: Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech. The latest Bank of England's actions overnight failed to appease the market. The market believes that what is more critical to the UK financial market is the details of the fiscal plan announced by the Chancellor at the end of the month and the extent of interest rate hikes in November. RBC believes that because the Bank of England may lower the expectation of rate hikes, it is recommended to buy the euro against pounds .
The next day at 06:00 am Beijing time: RBA Assistant Chairman Ellis delivered a speech.
to be determined: EU holds an informal meeting of energy ministers .
To be determined: G7 holds an emergency meeting on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
To be determined: Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko visited Washington from October 11 to 16 to attend the G20 summit and IMF meeting.
Performance Forecast
Wednesday morning: Puyi Group (PUYI.US)
Wednesday before the market: Pepsi (PEP.US)
