Since the Kerch Bridge on Crimean Peninsula was attacked by malicious attacks by Ukrainian organizations on October 8, the direction of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict began to deviate.
Russia has changed its previous strategy of suspending its attack on Ukraine's deep targets and has begun to use cruise missiles and cruise missiles to launch a large number of attacks on key infrastructure in Ukrainian cities. As the Russian military's missile continues to strike targets in the hinterland of Ukraine, the number of casualties among Ukrainian people is gradually increasing. According to , Russian Tasshe information, the Russian military's goals are mainly focused on key infrastructure related to energy, communications and command.
However, there are also reports that some guided problems or a small number of missiles intercepted by the Ukrainian army fell into civilian areas in Ukraine, causing damage to pure non-military targets such as amusement parks.
The Russian-Ukrainian war is constantly developing towards "blackization". The next stage of the war between the two sides may involve more and more civilian targets into the war.
The Western media have been very active in the past two days, and many media are hyping up the news that the so-called Russian army will use tactical nuclear weapon against key Ukraine targets.
Western media seems to be compassionate, but in fact the meaning in the report is very obvious, that is, the Russian army's strike on Ukraine's critical infrastructure is actually wasting Russian ammunition.
OK, in the eyes of Western media, who claim to be a pioneer in human rights, the value of the Ukrainian people in this war is actually to consume Russia's ammunition.
In contrast, in the Ukrainian government, the authorities in Kiev claimed that they had successfully intercepted most of Russia's air defense missiles in recent air defense operations. The Kiev authorities said that the Russian army used 75 missiles in the attack on October 10, and its side successfully intercepted 41 of them.
However, according to Kremlin news, the Russian army actually used 81 ammunition, and most of them successfully hit the target. From the actual situation, although the Ukrainian army has restored air defense capabilities in some key areas to a certain extent with the support of NATO , the degree of recovery is still very limited. It is unlikely to intercept such a large number of missiles from the Russian military.
In fact, since October 11, Zelensky has been continuously putting pressure on NATO to provide Ukraine with advanced air defense system and fighter . Otherwise, Kiev will collapse in the face of the Russian army's organized large-scale missile attack. What should be paid attention to is that the frequency of so-called "black action" between Russia and Ukraine may increase significantly in the future. Because Russia and Ukraine have similar cultural similarities and language communication, and the long-term tradition of intermarriage in eastern Ukraine and western Russia, this gives both special operations personnel considerable space for activities.
According to the Russian Tajikistan news agency, since October 8, the Russian national security department has thwarted more than once in the border areas of suspected terrorist attacks on targets in Russia. So imagine, as the grievances between the two sides continue to deepen, will the operational boundaries of special operations personnel of both sides be limited to the scope of intelligence activities? Once the agents and anti-special work war opening, similar operations such as assassination and terrorist attacks may be staged in both Russia and Ukraine at the same time.
At present, Western countries are stepping up their assessment of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. The head of the British intelligence agency pointed out that in the latest round of assessments on October 11, the UK believes that Russia's consumption of personnel and ammunition is astonishing, and said that with the help of NATO, Ukraine's defense is "becoming stronger."
Ukraine's defense is indeed very strong, and its mouth is as strong as steel. At present, more than half of the large and medium-sized cities in Ukraine have fallen into a normalized power outage.
Friends must be very concerned about the logistical supply trends between Russia and Ukraine. In fact, as far as the current situation is concerned, Russia's ammunition supply is far from over.
The hero here introduces a series of time points and related numbers.
After Russia began a special military operation against Ukraine in February this year, Moscow instructed Russia's military industry to step up the production of a batch of tanks, armored vehicles, and related equipment that were enough to arm a concise army.
Later, the military industrial sector in Russia began to gradually mobilize, and finally, after Moscow announced the implementation of a partial mobilization order a while ago, the military industrial sector achieved a comprehensive wartime production state. At present, in terms of the production of 152mm large-caliber shells, Russia can already meet the needs of the frontline with partial use of inventory.
In turn, since the United States and other NATO countries failed to adjust their military industry to wartime state, the current consumption of millions of large-caliber shells at the frontier of Russia and Ukraine has alerted many NATO countries to ammunition inventory, and due to production capacity issues, NATO has limited the number of 155mm shells to Ukraine to a certain extent.
In fact, if you are interested, you will find that on the latest Ukrainian battlefield images, the frequency of Ukrainian 105mm NATO old artillery has increased significantly. The 155mm cannon , which was previously sought after as a star weapon, did not appear much.
The current shortcomings of the Russian army lie in the production and reserve of smart ammunition. According to previous news from the Russian Tajikistan Society, although Russia has mobilized production capacity as much as possible, in August, it produced only 3-4 cruise missiles of similar models every day, which may have increased slightly at present, but production capacity is still limited.
This also determines that Russia's crackdown on critical infrastructure in Ukraine will be reduced rapidly.
At the same time, in terms of intelligent devices such as drones, Russia has established a certain amount of inventory, which can meet the consumption speed of about 100 aircraft per day on the front line, but this is obviously not enough. A weapon like a drone clearly requires hundreds or thousands of clusters to have a significant effect. Although the increase in the use of Russian drones has brought a lot of tactical troubles to the Ukrainian army, it is still a long way from changing the strategic situation of both sides.
Therefore, the hero believes that long-term air strikes will indeed put great pressure on the inventory of key models of the Russian army, but this pressure is limited. The supply of the frontier Russian army, especially the newly mobilized Russian troops, is sufficient, and it depends on whether Ukraine can withstand Russia's counterattack after the arrival of winter.
Of course, there have been some half-true news recently that the Russian army has begun to use the inventory of old tanks such as T-62 to arm the newly formed troops.
, and not telling the truth or falsehood, the hero believes that this choice is understandable. Most of the newly mobilized troops of the Russian army will form a temporary organization, and its mission is to fill the front line, so that there are enough defensive forces on both sides of thousands of kilometers, completely eliminating the possibility that the Russian army may be concentrated in the Ukrainian army to break through a little.
In this way, a large number of Russian standing troops will be liberated, re-deployed, and launch a counterattack in Ukraine's weak links.
After all, these newly mobilized troops do not need good equipment, they only need to have sufficient defense capabilities.
How can such a sensitive moment be missed by the performance of the Kiev actor team?
Zelensky complained to the Ukrainian National News Agency and other media on October 12 that according to the actual capabilities of the Russian military, Russia has the ability to prevent Ukraine from surviving this winter through conventional precision strikes.
The implication is that the Russian military's conventional missile attack has caused great damage to Ukraine's infrastructure to a large extent. If this damage continues, the result will be very obvious. Ukraine will spend a winter short of electricity and energy.
in towns Ukrainian 's wintering problem cannot be solved well and may turn into a humanitarian disaster.
Let the hero say that if Zelensky's acting skills were focused on governing the country, the situation in Ukraine might have improved a little.Russia has only so many cruise missiles inventories, and a certain amount of inventory needs to be established to fight a big battle in the future. It is impossible to continue to attack critical infrastructure in Ukraine with nearly 100 per day.
In fact, after the crackdown six months ago, various factories, energy places and communication base stations in Ukraine have been basically in a state of losing their functions. There are not many targets for the Russian army to "finish" this round of attack.
So, in the end it is a problem.
How will Ukraine’s loyal friends view the wintering issue of people in Ukraine? Since everyone has expressed their support for Ukraine many times, if Ukraine lacks energy to spend the winter, can Europe generously contribute to the energy supply to Ukraine?
Just think about it and you will know the answer to this question.
Currently, in order to solve its own energy crisis, is the Eight Immortals who show their magical powers across the sea. Those who have good relations with Russia can get at least a certain amount of Russian energy supply openly or secretly. As for those who remain unchanged, they will be honestly fetched by the Americans. In Europe, there is a trend of internal strife over energy issues.
Currently, Europe is trapped in a "financial quagmire" and a "energy melee".
First of all, from the demand side, for the current United States and Europe, the biggest impact is inflation . Public data shows that in August, the inflation rate in euro area reached 9.1% on an annualized basis, exceeding market expectations and setting a new record high. This year, Europe also suffered severe drought, with about 47% of regions facing drought risk and another 17% on a more severe alarm. Senior Economist at the Dutch International Group Eurozone pointed out that energy problems and drought weather will continue to put pressure on commodity prices in the coming months, and inflation will see little signs of relief in the short term. In order to cope with inflation and suppress demand, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates by 50 basis points on July 21 this year, which is the first time since the European debt crisis has begun to raise interest rates in 11 years. Moreover, the ECB has ended its quantitative easing policy.
In contrast, the United States began its interest rate hike process as early as March this year and began to speed up in June, July and September. In terms of inflation, in June, the United States' CPI reached 9.1%, the largest year-on-year increase since November 1981. According to some American media reports, currently, American families spend an average of $717 more per month. Such high inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to continue to use interest rate hikes to deal with it.
High inflation not only makes it unbearable for European and American people, but also for politicians in elected countries. Multiple poll results integrated with the US polling agency show that the average approval rating of Biden in is only 38%, the lowest record for successive US presidents. One of the main effects of this is the high inflation rate in the United States. European politicians also face the same situation. On August 21, German polls showed that only 25% of people supported Prime Minister Scholz, but 62% of people were dissatisfied with him, only 27% chose to support the government, and 65% of people were dissatisfied with the government, the main reason was inflation; in France, the current president Macron 's support rate also dropped to 37%; in the UK, although Boris' direct resignation was due to personal conduct, it was actually closely related to the public grievances caused by high inflation.
From the perspective of energy supply, Russia, which is in an important position in OPEC (OPEC)+, accounts for 55% of the global oil supply. Although Biden himself and leaders of some European countries have lobbyed for the increase in oil production, the results of the lobbying were not satisfactory. Just recently, with the cooler weather and the shelving of the Iran nuclear agreement, the balance of energy prices has once again tilted to Russia. Once Russia reduces its supply, oil prices will rebound, and the rise and fall of energy prices will further affect the trend of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
is attracted by the high profits of oil and gas. Oil manufacturers and even related investors from all over the world have begun to move towards investing in oil and gas production or purchasing oil and gas resources, and some have gradually injected new oil and gas into the market. Among them, Algeria , Libya , Israel, plus Qatar in the Middle East and natural gas exporters such as Norway have begun to expand production capacity to seize the market cake; even shale oil manufacturers in the United States, such as Occupy Oil and ExxonMobil, are constantly increasing production to seize the market. This market power is a catalyst that can drive oil prices to fall more than the US price limit order. If oil prices fall in the future, it is not the effect of the US price limit order, but the force of supply and demand balance formed by high profits of oil and gas.
The reality is that not only the spot price of oil and natural gas rose sharply, but was impacted by the temporary supply of natural gas in Russia. In September, the natural gas price in the European natural gas futures trading market rose by 72.5 euros, reaching 281 euros per megawatt-hour, a sharp increase of 35% from the market price on September 2. In the international market, not only energy companies participate in energy futures , but many other industries, even physical enterprises, pension institutions, and insurance companies, are also active in futures market , either hedging to ensure the stability of spot prices, or speculating in order to make profits. In this context, the surge in energy prices will directly lead to the originally stable European energy futures market jumping up and down, causing European companies that were originally at low interest rates to generate huge liquidity risks due to the impact of liquidation, and even form the domino effect .
and EU , as an alliance of 28 countries, has already suffered a lot of debt problems in its member states. Under the dual impact of energy and economics, compared with the financial crisis caused by " Lehman Brothers ", will there be a disintegration or a new question?
