In less than a year, BYD 's attitude towards fuel vehicles has undergone a huge change.
In June 2021, in response to the news of the suspension of fuel vehicles, BYD said, "There is no such plan at present." However, in just over nine months, BYD has changed its mind, and its speed of suspension of fuel vehicles is unexpected.
At the same time, more and more car companies have released a "ban on burning" schedule, but some car companies have not yet clarified the date of completely stopping the sale or stopping production of fuel vehicles.
From the perspective of domestic car companies, only Changan , BAIC, Haima Automobile had clearly proposed to ban burning. However, at the 2021 Changan Automobile Technology Ecological Conference, Changan Automobile stated that it plans to account for 35% of the sales of new energy vehicles by 2025, and by 2030, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for 60%. FAW Group , Dongfeng Motor , SAIC Group , GAC Group , etc. have no clear 100% burn-out timetable. In addition, other well-known car companies such as Geely , Great Wall, etc. have not made clear statements. What are these car companies sticking to?
Under the general trend of rapid development of new energy vehicles, will "stop production and sale of fuel vehicles" become a trend in the development of the automobile industry? How far is it to replace fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles?
2025 becomes a critical time point for the transformation of car companies
Transformation into new energy vehicles is imminent. Under the competition of Tesla , BYD, and "Wei Xiaoli", mainstream traditional vehicle companies with huge fuel vehicles have no time to hesitate and worry, and have successively formulated their own transformation schedules.
Beijing News Beike Finance reporters found that in addition to BYD, there are currently domestic independent brands such as BAIC Group and Changan Automobile, as well as many international brands such as BMW , Volkswagen, and Honda and other international brands that have clearly announced the "ban on burning" schedule. Among them, most of the time when independent car brands stop production or sale of fuel vehicles are set in 2025, and most international car brands are around 2030.
As early as October 2017, Changan Automobile announced the "Shangri-La Plan", planning to invest more than 100 billion yuan in the new energy field in the next eight years, and will fully suspend the sale of traditional fuel vehicles by 2025.
However, at the Changan Automobile Technology Ecological Conference held in 2021, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, said that Changan Automobile plans to achieve brand sales of 3 million vehicles by 2025, of which new energy accounts for 35%; by 2030, it will become a world-class brand, with sales volume reaching 4.5 million vehicles and 60% of new energy accounts for.
Following Changan's announcement of the timetable for stopping the sale of fuel vehicles, independent car company BAIC Group announced that it would completely stop the production and sales of independent brand traditional fuel passenger cars in China by 2025. Haima Automobile plans to completely eliminate fuel vehicles by 2025.
However, for any car company, transformation cannot be achieved overnight. The confidence of "oil cut off" must be based on multiple considerations such as market sales, profit composition, brand positioning and technical support. Although 7 domestic mainstream car companies including FAW , SAIC, and Geely have not clearly stated the specific time for "burning ban", the electrification transformation is accelerating and each has set sales targets for 2025.
Great Wall Motors is the most "ambitious". In June 2021, Great Wall Motor proposed in the "2025 Strategy" released by the 8th Science and Technology Festival that by 2025, Great Wall Motor will achieve operating income of more than 600 billion yuan, with an annual global sales of 4 million vehicles, of which 80% are new energy vehicles (i.e. 3.2 million vehicles).
"To achieve this goal, we will continue to make 'large investment in R&D'. In the next five years, the cumulative R&D investment will reach 100 billion yuan." Great Wall Motor Chairman Wei Jianjun revealed that in the next five years, Great Wall Motor's R&D investment will be concentrated in new energy fields such as pure electric, hydrogen energy , hybrid, and key core technology fields such as chips, silicon carbide , etc.
Geely Auto 's "Smart Geely 2025" strategy is proposed to achieve a total sales of 3.65 million vehicles by 2025, of which the sales of new energy products will reach 900,000 vehicles, accounting for 30%. With the Zekr brand (targeted 650,000 vehicles), Geely's overall sales of new energy products will exceed 40%.
SAIC plans to achieve sales of new energy vehicles exceeding 2.7 million by 2025, accounting for no less than 32% of SAIC's complete vehicle sales. GAC's data is 25%, FAW's data is 20%, and Changan (excluding joint venture brands) is 35%.
Changan Automobile proposed that the Changan brand will achieve annual sales of 3 million vehicles in 2025, of which the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 35%, or 1.05 million vehicles. In 2030, the company plans to increase sales to 4.5 million vehicles, with the proportion of new energy sources reaching 60%.
GAC Group plans to achieve complete vehicle sales of 3.5 million vehicles by 2025, accounting for more than 25% of the sales of new energy vehicles; among which the sales of independent brands will reach 1 million vehicles, fully realizing electrification, and striving to achieve new energy vehicles to account for 50% of independent brands.
FAW Group will launch more than 50 new energy vehicle models during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, including more than 30 independent brands. The target is that the sales of new energy vehicles will account for more than 20% in 2025.
Similarly, Dongfeng Motor also plans to account for more than 20% of the company's total sales by 2025, helping to achieve the goal of " carbon peak and carbon neutrality ".
Among overseas car companies, German brand Volkswagen clearly stated that it "will withdraw from the European internal combustion engine market from 2033 to 2035." Mercedes-Benz plans to prepare for full pure electrification in markets where conditions permit by 2030; BMW plans to stop selling fuel vehicles in EU starting in 2030.
Volvo Cars is committed to becoming a pure electric luxury car company in 2030; Ford Motor will achieve full electrification of new cars sold in Europe in 2030; General Motors plans to stop selling fuel vehicles from 2035, and in the same year, it will transition its products to zero-emission cars and pure electric cars. Honda plans to stop selling fuel vehicles in 2040.
The development speed of new energy vehicles is "unthinkable".
Some industry analysts believe that behind the end of fuel vehicle production is the rapid progress of new energy vehicles in technology, market and other fields.
BYD's new energy vehicle sales continue to grow and its share continue to increase with its share.
In 2021, BYD's cumulative sales for the whole year were 740,100 vehicles, and increased by 73.34% year-on-year. Among them, new energy vehicles became the main growth force, with annual sales of 603,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 218.3%, accounting for 81.58% of the total sales of the year, while fuel vehicles sold only 136,300 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 42.54%.
From January to March 2022, BYD's new energy vehicle production and sales were 287,530 and 286,329 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 416.96% and 422.97%. The sales of new energy vehicles account for 98.27% of the total sales.
looks at the global new energy market, and BYD's sales can compete with Tesla.
At the same time, the domestic new energy vehicle market is also growing rapidly. In 2021, 2.989 million new energy passenger cars were retailed in China, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of was 14.8%, which was a significant increase from the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020.
enters 2022, and sales of new energy vehicles continue to increase significantly. Data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that in the first quarter of this year, the domestic retail volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.07 million, an increase of 146.6% year-on-year; the retail penetration rate reached 21.7%, an increase of 13.1 percentage points from the first quarter of last year.
"From the speed of industry changes last year, if it is a constant speed calculation, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country is expected to reach 35% by the end of this year." BYD founder Wang Chuanfu said that the popularization of new energy vehicles has become the general trend. In his opinion, if the development of new energy vehicles was mainly driven by policy 10 years ago; 3-5 years ago, it was driven by "policy + market" two-wheel drive, then the current market drive accounted for 70%, and the policy drive was only 30%.
China Electric Vehicles Hundred People Association Vice Chairman and Secretary-General Zhang Yongwei believes that the only direction of global automobile development is new energy, or electrification, which has become a consensus among countries and enterprises around the world. Zhang Yongwei said, "In the past, many countries had controversy and sway over this, while China's new energy vehicle industry has been growing and has continued to reach new levels. After years of development, the irreversible trend of new energy has basically been formed."
is based on the Hundred People's Association research and forecast that the annual sales of electric vehicles in China will exceed 5 million in 2022, and will reach at least 7 million in 2025. It is optimistic that 9 million to 10 million vehicles.
" takes only a few years from 1 million to 10 million vehicles, and this speed has created the world's new energy industry'. The number of new energy vehicles, growth rate and the scale of industries driven by the industry were unimaginable in the past. "Zhang Yongwei said.
"temptation" of the high market value of pure electric car companies
rides on the east wind of new energy vehicles, and the performance of new energy vehicle companies in the capital market is particularly impressive.
On October 25, 2021, the old American car rental giant Hertz placed an order for 100,000 cars on Tesla. Since then, Tesla's stock price has soared, exceeding trillions of dollars. At the close of November 1, Tesla rose 8.49%, and its market value exceeded 1.21 trillion yuan in one fell swoop USD. Following Apple , Amazon , Microsoft , Google and other companies, Tesla became the seventh listed company in the history of the US stock market with a market value of over one trillion US dollars. From
to November 5, the highest price of Tesla's stock price was US$1239.87. Judging from the closing price at that time, Tesla's market value was as high as US$1227.302 billion.
February 2022, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter raised Tesla's target share price from $1,300 to $1,350 and maintained the stock's "overweight" rating. The analyst expects Tesla's delivery volume in 2022 to be 1.58 million units, which means a 69% increase over 2021. Potter said the Tesla Model Y model is the biggest growth driver in recent times.
As of April 12, 2022, Tesla's stock price has rebounded to more than one trillion US dollars.
In August 2021, BYD's total market value exceeded 900 billion yuan for the first time. Subsequently, many institutions raised BYD's target price, and many brokerages such as CITIC Securities , Changjiang Securities , West China Securities and other brokerages all gave buy or overweight ratings.
As of December 31, 2021, BYD became the top Chinese automaker's market value list in 2021 with 780.536 billion yuan, with a total market value increasing by 47.25% year-on-year.
Tianfeng Securities said that BYD The new energy vehicle business is developing rapidly and has not yet made sufficient profits. It is suitable for price-to-sales valuation. Compared with the price-to-sales ratio of car companies such as Xiaopeng Motors and Ideal Auto , it can give BYD Auto a price-to-sales ratio of 5.5 times. It is expected that BYD's automobile business revenue in 2022 will reach 202. The growth rate is 91.2%.
Not only BYD, but also new energy vehicle companies such as Tesla, NIO , Xiaopeng , and Xiaopeng , are also leading the rise. The same is true for the stock price of
NIO . In July 2020, Tencent Holdings became the second largest shareholder of NIO. Affected by this, NIO's market value once approached US$18 billion, setting a historical high .
By October 2021, NIO's market value soared to US$28.57 billion, surpassing the old American car company Ford and becoming a landmark node for the new car-making forces.
In April 2022, NIO's market value continued to hit a new high, breaking through the 100 billion US dollar mark, and even surpassing Volkswagen, becoming the third largest company in the world's car companies, second only to Tesla and Toyota .
Ford was not only surpassed by NIO, but also by Xiaopeng. In November 2020, Xiaopeng's total market value reached US$32.19 billion, ranking 14th among global auto companies, one step away from Ford, and subsequently surpassed Ford.
Will traditional fuel vehicles withdraw from the historical stage in a short period of time?
When will fuel vehicles withdraw from the historical stage while BYD and others sounded the "ban on burning" horn? Many experts said in interviews that although new energy vehicles are rising rapidly, there is still a significant gap in current sales compared with fuel vehicles, and traditional fuel vehicles will not withdraw from the historical stage in a short period of time.
"It can be said with certainty that internal combustion engines will not withdraw from the market soon." Honorary Chairman of the Chinese Society of Automobile Engineering and Honorary Chairman of the China Automobile Talent Research Association Fu Yuwu said in an interview with Beijing News Shell Finance reporter that BYD's suspension of fuel vehicles is a case with specific historical reasons and individual factors of the enterprise, and does not mean the full withdrawal of internal combustion engines in the entire industry.
Fu Yuwu analyzed that although BYD has produced fuel vehicles in history, electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles are the main labels and revenue pillars of the company. From a general perspective, BYD's "oil cutoff" does represent the general direction of the electrification transformation of the automobile industry, representing that the industry has entered a new era. However, such transformation is also in line with BYD's consistent strategic thinking and historical accumulation, and does not represent the current choice of all car companies. "Our society still needs a large number of fuel vehicles. Although the general direction is electric vehicles to replace fuel vehicles, this is a gradual process."
In fact, my country's new energy vehicle industry planning is also divided according to stages.
In November 2020, the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" issued by the State Council shows that by 2025, the average power consumption of new pure electric passenger cars will drop to 12.0 kilowatt-hours/100 kilometers, and the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new cars. Highly autonomous vehicles will achieve commercial applications in limited areas and specific scenarios.
By 2035, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of new sales vehicles, and vehicles will be fully electrified in the public sector, fuel cell vehicle will be commercially applied, and highly autonomous vehicles will be widely used, effectively promoting the improvement of energy conservation and emission reduction levels and social operation efficiency.
"The global automobile industry is seeking an electrification transformation strategy. This is a historic major change and a major industrial reconstruction." Fu Yuwu said that now global auto companies have come up with an electrification schedule, and Chinese local enterprises also have their own layouts. However, for a considerable period of time before 2035, we still have to "walking on two legs", that is, energy-saving car and new energy vehicles walk on two legs. In the future, fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles will be an era of coexistence, coexistence and common development.
automotive industry analyst Zhang Xiang believes that "because the current new energy vehicle technology is still immature, fuel vehicles will not withdraw from the historical stage soon." He said that new energy vehicles currently have problems such as short range, poor charging experience, fast battery mileage decay in winter, and low residual value .
Zhang Hong, Secretary-General of the New Energy Vehicle Branch of the China Automobile Dealer Association, said in an interview with a reporter from Beike Finance that whether it is due to the large traffic flow during the holidays or the cold climate in the north, new energy vehicles still have problems such as few charging facilities, slow charging, and non-universal facilities and payment methods. It can be said that the growth of charging facilities for new energy vehicles has not kept up with the growth of sales of new energy vehicles. If sales of new energy vehicles still have room for growth, the problem of imbalance in supply and demand for charging facilities may be even more serious.
Chapter Hong said that if you want to solve the charging difficulties, the core is to accelerate the construction of charging facilities for new energy vehicles. For example, increase the subsidy policy for the construction of charging piles to promote charging facility manufacturers or car companies to accelerate the popularization of charging facilities; for car companies that have built their own brand charging or battery swap facilities around the expressway, they can comprehensively consider, open portals, and accept charging of vehicles from other brands to alleviate the pressure of insufficient charging facilities.
When talking about the basic pattern of future automobile power routes, Zhang Xiang believes that a diversified power pattern will usher in. He said that in addition to pure electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid , he is also optimistic about the ordinary hybrid (HEV) technology route. "In addition, like tandem HEVs, such as Nissan 's e-POWER, 48V mild hybrid, extended-range technology routes, etc., will also have a certain market share."
Previously, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Association, issued a document pointing out that considering the stability and balance of the energy structure, the development of new energy vehicles should still be steadily realized in accordance with the requirements of the "Opinions on Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization" and the "Carbon Peak Action Plan before 2030". "Radical policies to promote the development of new energy in one-size-fits-all ways should not appear, so we believe that it is a reasonable choice for the timetable for stopping fuel vehicles nationwide."
Beijing News Shell Finance reporter Zhang Bing Lin Zi Editor Xu Chao Proofreading Yang Xuli
