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The world's first economic , hegemonic , the United States, the US Treasury Secretary Connery in the Nixon era, once said this famous saying: "The US dollar is our currency, but it is your problem."
It is worth mentioning that the environment and background of the sentence was spoken:
In the 1870s, it happened that Bretton Woods system was in turmoil. The wantonly expanding currency has caused Europe to suffer from inflation .
The most intense thing is French President General Charles de Gaulle. He cursed the United States for harming neighbors and declared that the United States' balance of payments deficit is a "deficit that does not shed tears"! The US government retorted, and the then US Treasury Secretary Connery was even a little gloating and said the famous saying above confidently and arrogantly.
Later, US President Nixon closed the gold exchange window under the suggestion of Treasury Secretary John Connery , according to the plan of Deputy Secretary of the Ministry of Finance Paul Volker , and the Bretton Woods system ended.
The Western powers involved in the system were helpless, shocked and dissatisfied. Connery told the financial officials at the subsequent G10 meeting, "The US dollar is our currency, but it is your problem." From then on, the dilemma of alternating US dollar shortage/US dollar excess disappeared completely. If the Bretton Woods system has constraints and restrictions on the United States in "gold exchange", this sentence can be seen as a signal of an era: with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar has thus started a hegemony supported by the absolute advantages of the United States' military and technological advantages.
From gold dollar to petrodollar, the American Jewish capital, which has the most developed and advanced financial system and authoritative position in the world, has ushered in a half-century US dollar expansion, looted the world, and maintained long-term low inflation and high welfare in the United States economy era.
USD interest rate has become the baton for Feder to control the global flow of US dollar. Through adjustments to US dollar interest rates, domestic economic problems, inflation pressure, and financial crisis in the United States have been continuously transferred to the world for a long time, and has been tried and tested. The background and process of
have actually been written many times in my past articles, but the current content of the inflation issue in the United States that this article is about to discuss is very important, so I deliberately occupied a little space at the beginning to explain it.
USD is the world settlement currency, and the domestic economic trends of the United States are closely related to global economy .
starts every year, US CPI is one of the most important data in the first quarter. It may cause US stock to fluctuate significantly, lead to debt crisis in European countries, and may also cause large fluctuations in emerging market stock prices. Because CPI reflects the inflation situation, it is directly related to the US dollar monetary policy , further, it has key decisive significance for the formulation of US dollar interest rates.
History seems to be pressing against similar rhymes and begins to repeat itself. Many people do not realize that the global economy has reached a key point: from the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system in March 1973 to 2022, exactly 50 years later, the economic reality of the United States has also sent an important alarm signal.
The first month of the year 2022, the inflation situation in the United States was announced, surpassing the market and forecast!
China Beijing time on February 10, 2022, at 9:30 pm Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor data disclosed on time that the country's unseasonally adjusted consumer price index (CPI) rose 7.5% in the 12 months to January 2022, higher than the previous market forecast of 7.3%, and became the largest increase in 40 years since February 1982. The so-called core consumer price index after excluding the volatile food and energy components has also risen 6% from a year ago, and is the highest level since August 1982. From a monthly perspective, both CPI and core CPI rose 0.6%, higher than the market expectation of 0.4%, of which the core CPI increase is the seventh time in the past 10 months exceeding 0.5%.
Even the dullest ears could hear the sound of the tide of inflation breaking through the ice.
Image source: Internet
As the base camp of global settlement currency, capitalism The country of lighthouse, the United States, a city on the mountain of Free Will, is facing the biggest inflation dilemma in the past 40 years, that is, since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.
Even the US mainland has an inflation problem. Then the US dollar frenzy that is flocking to the world and immersed in the super-issued US dollar environment will have to face the monetary policy adjustments that the US may make in the face of inflation, which will inevitably bring about the impact and impact of the US dollar tide.
No one cares about whether the US economy is inflated or not. What everyone cares about is whether the Fed will use the baton of the global dollar to launch the US dollar tide. Once the rate hikes , the global dollar will inevitably return to the United States, which is the key. The impact and influence of
is without weapons and smoke, but it is cruel: rate hike is like a sieve, screening out entities with insufficient profit margins (and the people employed in it). After the austerity of investment, the high-profit entities are left behind, and the practitioners they need are also high-end technologies or managers who can create high profits.
This article will conduct in-depth analysis and judgment on the possibility of impact and impact on China's economic environment in the future based on the latest economic data released by the United States.
The logic of this article is as follows:
1. Why does the United States, which has monetary hegemony, experience inflation?
2. Understand the dilemma under the continuous inflation of the United States: the choice of monetary hegemony and economic depression
3. Inflation in the United States, interest rates are changing. What impacts and impacts will it bring?
is written at the end: Back to China, what are the trends in economic dimensions worth paying attention to?
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1
Why does the United States, which has currency hegemony, experience inflation?
First of all, a key judgment is, how authentic is the economic data released by the US Department of Labor this time?
There is actually no suspense about capitalist countries fabricating data. It is no longer a secret to perfection, but the CPI and inflation situation just announced can basically be determined with confidence, which is true. It can even be said that even if there is moisture, it will be adjusted to a lower level. In fact, the real inflation situation in the US domestic economy is likely to be much greater than the data given by Department of Labor :
apartment rental costs rose by 0.5% month-on-month in January 2022, the fastest growth rate in 20 years;
electricity prices soared by 4.2% month-on-month in the same period, the largest increase in 15 years, an increase of 10.7% over the same period last year;
household furniture and supplies prices rose by 1.6%, which is The largest single-month increase on record in 1967;
, driven by higher-priced eggs, cereals and dairy products, food costs increased by 0.9% in January;
, airfare prices rose by 2.3%; due to the shortage of computer chips, new car prices jumped during the epidemic, up 12.2% from a year ago;
, soaring new car prices in turn accelerated used car prices, with used car prices rising by 1.5% in January, up 41% from a year ago.
It is not uncommon to say that any country in the world has an economic problem such as inflation, but at the same time, it is very unfavorable that there will be inflation in the United States, which has the most developed financial model and the global settlement currency hegemony hegemony.
To put it bluntly, according to the actual situation of the domestic economic operation and management of the United States in the past 50 years, low inflation, high welfare, stable economic development, can be said to be the benchmark and representative of global economic development. Especially the United States is the world's largest economic scale and a developed capitalist country. Such performance is definitely not something that ordinary people can describe.
But envying is useless. The United States, which has military and technology, and omnipresent capital means and routine support, is the only one in the world, and cannot imitate or follow.
So why has there been continuous inflation in the United States since the second half of 2021 and has repeatedly refreshed and caught up with historical records?
After all, it is because of the unfinished currency over-issuance of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. governments since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020. The logic of over-issuance of
USD is also the only one, increasing treasury bonds (expanding balance sheets) externally, releasing liquidity internally, and major consumer countries, buying and buying money printed through government consumption, and buying and buying the dollar without cost has become the winning weapon for American capitalist groups to harvest globally and invest in the investment layout.
But everything has to be discussed in a certain way. There is a concept in finance called capacity overload. Simply put, it means that in any economic structure and asset environment, the total amount of money that can be accommodated is limited, especially the hard currency anchored to the exchange rate , and the corresponding total value is upper limit.
If it is difficult to understand, I will give you an example, take gold as an example. The total amount of gold is relatively fixed, and the value of gold is relatively constant. So is it always a limit to use gold as a hard channel to measure the value of any asset field?
For example, for a house, the maximum price that the market can accept is 2 kilograms of gold. When the amount of gold circulating remains unchanged, the value of the house cannot break through this limit. This is called the limit of economic capacity carrier.
exchanges gold for US dollars. Although the US dollar continues to over-issued, it does not mean that such a limit does not exist. Instead, it is because the US dollar continues to over-issued, which will continue to accumulate bubbles in the asset field and create risks.
Because the total amount and circulation of gold will not change, but the US dollar will continue to increase, the economic environment capacity is overloaded, either the US dollar will depreciate or the bubble will burst, and there is no third way.
There are certainly many dimensions of inflation in the US domestic economic environment, but there are actually only two reasons, but the most fundamental origin is that the speed of commodity generation cannot keep up with the speed of over-issuance of US dollars, that is, production and supply and demand do not match. Speaking of this, we have to mention that as the largest producer of the epidemic in the past two years, China has begun credit contraction since the second half of 2020, objectively forming capacity limitations.
printing speed has caused capacity overload in the consumption dimension. Even the speed of capital groups buying, buying, and transferring investments to the US dollar cannot keep up with the Fed's printing speed. Then the US dollar will inevitably lead to a flooding inflation in the issuing country, that is, the United States.
Another thing is that it has printed too many US dollars, which has made the US stock market, American housing, , US bonds, soar. Many Americans rely on this wave of direct financial freedom and quit their jobs. Some rely on the US dollar to make their living, squatting at home and not working, which has caused many commodities to be blocked in the docks and cannot be put on the shelves, further pushing up inflation.
January 2022, the backlog of containers in the United States (Picture source: Headline Gallery)
Therefore, the inflation data of the United States in January 2022, including inflation statistics starting from the second half of 2021, have authenticity and significance.
This is the direct result of the United States as a hegemonic currency issuance under the global epidemic, due to path dependence and forced support and stimulation of the US economy through currency over-issuance, which is not complicated.
Image source: Headline Gallery
2
The dilemma under continuous inflation in the United States: the choice of currency hegemony and economic depression
Too complicated data and economic logic are not necessary. Understanding the cause of US inflation does not mean that the American Jewish capital group did not know about this situation in advance, and it must have left a backup plan. It is completely meaningless to despise such an old capitalist power.
In fact, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the United States has been highly consistent and has carried out monetary easing with extremely efficient choices and infinite QE, and has definitely expected possible subsequent situations and changes. In the field of financial wars, the United States dares to say that it is second, but the first one has not been born yet.
There is a very important underlying logic here. In fact, the United States is not worried about its own inflation at all. Even the economic crisis caused by indulging in the free market, economic crisis is not afraid of the big financial hole. What are you afraid of just inflation?
is like the current Fed Chairman Powell has long had a "temporary" view on inflation, which shows.
The United States is not afraid of inflation. The reason why it has been deaf and dumb and ignores domestic inflation is actually an economic strategy and a conspiracy: through the continuous over-issuance of the US dollar, all countries in the US dollar settlement environment, and even the global inflation will rise. As long as it can be transferred out, what is the United States afraid of?
The United States is a consumer country. As long as the printed dollar can be bought and bought all over the world, no matter how high the inflation is, it is not a problem, and it can always be transferred. Therefore, under the pressure of inflation, other countries will have long intervened in the control, and the United States is just a TAPER that is not painful: reduce the speed of currency issuance a little, so that the domestic currency can digest it quickly.
Inflation is temporarily supported by domestic inflation in the United States and has been rising all the way.
The United States is not afraid of inflation, it is just afraid that inflation cannot be transferred, and it is just afraid that countries around the world will challenge the hegemony of the US dollar.
Until the end of 2021, the United States finally woke up and suddenly realized that domestic inflation could not move! This is why the Federal Reserve's dove turns into an eagle! Finally, we have to speed up TAPER and clarify the expectation of rate hikes in .
Judging from this performance, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the United States has tried to loot the world's wishful thinking through the super-exit dollar, but it has not worked.
From three dimensions:
First of all, inflation in Latin America has continued to be high, reaching 10.6% in 2021, and may further increase to 11.9% in 2022. However, because the US dollar has harvested many rounds in the past, the total economic volume can no longer meet the economic deficit in the United States in the past two years. It is no longer of great significance to continue to use the US dollar to push up inflation, which is also in line with the capacity overload concept mentioned above.
followed by Europe and Japan and South Korea. European inflation is not as exaggerated as the United States because of the existence of euro . The inflation rate in Europe in January was only 5.1%, which is obviously lower than the inflation in the United States. Why should the United States actively ignite the situation in Ukraine? If it does not create regional risks and crises, how can it force capital back to the United States from Europe? As for Japan and South Korea, the size is too small and you can only be a substitute, so you can't escape it.
Of course, there are also small Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, Thailand, and even India, who are actually currently in the US dollar inflation bubble.
However, the spoils brought back by launching a US dollar tide to these countries and allowing the return of US dollar capital are far from enough to fill the consumption and deficits of the United States in the past two years.
According to the original plan of the United States, the number one goal is actually China, but after 2021, it has been 2022. Looking through this way, it is obvious that the United States has already known that there is no chance. Once the civilized financial war is launched, it is obviously not feasible to cut China and make up for its own deficit this time.
So the United States has to face a dilemma:
If you want to maintain the global hard currency of the US dollar, then under the current situation of continuous high inflation, you need to pay for the over-issuance of the US dollar, but the real recovery of the domestic economy is not ideal, and if you rashly raise interest rates, the US economy will fall into a depression;
The current economic growth and stability of the United States are highly dependent on the action of over-issuance of currency, but long-term high inflation will have an impact on the dollar value, US dollar hegemony, and US dollar credit. Over time, once the reality of "the US dollar is waste paper" becomes a general consensus and expectation, the US dollar hegemony will collapse, and inflation corresponds to the US dollar credit crisis.
If you want the hegemony of the US dollar, you can exchange the economic depression. The same goes for the same. To maintain a false economic prosperity, you must accept the impact of the US dollar's credit.
Sugarcane is not as sweet as both ends, it is that simple to put it bluntly.
This is the current difficult choice between high inflation and economic sustainment.
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
3
US inflation, interest rates change, what impacts and impacts will it bring?
Of course, the high inflation in the United States cannot last for a long time. The longer the time is, the impact and impact on the US dollar credit, hegemony, and currency value, as the key tool for the world's largest hegemony, will continue to increase until it collapses and completely collapses.
So the United States will definitely take action before the limit comes, but in fact, judging from the current inflation of the US dollar in the United States, it has caused direct disturbances to global assets, capital, and funds.
This is true. The hegemony of the US dollar is really not a cover. It is the nature of capital to seek profits and avoid harm, and to pursue profits. Although it is calm on the surface, in fact, undercurrents have begun to surge in the economic environment of various countries and regions around the world, and many market conditions and changes are happening quietly.
In 2022, the risks transmitted to the global economic environment and market continue to brew in the strange calm before the storm.
In the process of thinking about US inflation, I have seen many articles analyzing the yield trend of US Treasury bonds, but this is actually not very meaningful for most ordinary individuals and investment groups, especially those in China's domestic capital, finance, and assets.
below, we will talk about the economic impact and impact of US inflation from several direct dimensions:
1. First of all, gold. Inflation continues to be high, so the US dollar capital you hold will continue to depreciate. Fortunately, over time, selling US dollar capital becomes a consistent choice.
There are so many dollars in the world, and everyone sells it. The United States is like a bank being run. There is only one way to go bankrupt. Which bank in the world can withstand the run? None of them.
If the US dollar cannot go up, then the gold that is negatively related to the US dollar will go up.
2. The consumer market in the United States will intensify the hoarding of goods as inflation continues.
This is human instinct. If you sell 100 yuan today and 101 yuan tomorrow, then won’t you continue to push up the trend of buying?
Such snap-ups are basically concentrated in the field of daily consumption, toilet paper, mineral water, etc. At the same time, when inflation dilutes purchasing power, non-limited daily necessities, such as Internet consumption, game consoles, and entertainment investment will be curbed.
durable goods market will explode, the replacement cycle will be longer, and the asset price of expands .
The changes in the US consumer market will further impact global industries and supply chains. The plunge of
mate may just be the beginning.
3, , developing countries, , emerging market countries, the economic environment will enter a high-risk stage of intensifying volatility.
4. Exchange rate, this is the key. Except for China, the currency of any country is a weak currency in front of the US dollar, including the euro!
This means that the asset market of most countries will fall into a crisis moment when they are completely obeying the US dollar monetary policy.
5, , Biden, cannot control oil prices, and the Federal Reserve cannot control inflation, which is undoubtedly a big joke.
Image source: Internet
Bulks were hyped by the US dollar and rose sharply. With the support of the industrial chain, they returned to the United States, aggravating domestic inflation. This is a typical example of flooding itself.
This is also a reflection of the decline of the United States' strength. A country's control over its own economy is reflected in these details.
But the lean camel is bigger than the horse, the economic foundation of the United States, the core capital of interest groups have not been truly damaged, so in 2022, the key is to look at the US's interest rate hike choices and specific actions under inflation.
There is no doubt that how the United States deals with and faces domestic inflation in 2022 will become the absolute " Gray Rhino " that directly affects the economic environment and direction of many countries and economies around the world in 2022.
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
at the end:
Back to China, what are the trends in the economic dimensions worth paying attention to?
As the most ideal of the United States, it is also the object of the thief who wants to transfer domestic inflation. Our motherland China faces the actual situation in the above article.
Since the second half of 2020, I have also said that the choice made by China has made many times, which is the core idea of "maintaining the exchange rate first, actively tightening to fight imported inflation". This is how reality is realized.
To put it bluntly, it is to actively choose depression, actively tighten liquidity, and even reduce economic enthusiasm, and reduce foreign exchange aggregation caused by the continuous increase of surplus (use it immediately after making money, and actively reduce US bonds).
Whether the United States is happy or not or not, China's approach is actually a comprehensive defense against the false prosperity created by the United States with excessive currency issuance and the stimulation and expansion effects of the bubble economy on China's domestic economy.
The epidemic has been hit by more than two years. China pays the bill by itself. The whole United States and the whole world fail to find someone to pay. Even if it doesn’t give up, what can we do?
This is a confrontation at the game level of major powers and a torment at the national interests level. I am afraid the process cost will be paid. In 2021, China's economy is downward, consumption is weak, and the economy is under pressure. What is happening in all industries?
The inflation situation in the United States is still continuing, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is pending, and the decisive battle between China and the United States in the financial and monetary battlefield has not officially begun. This is the most uncomfortable, most painful, and most critical stage that tests concentration. At the end of the article
, based on the understanding and understanding of this stage, we talk about some views and views on China's economic dimensions:
1. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trends not only affect the whole world, but also the key focus of China's domestic monetary policy and economic stimulus.
Although the plan of "mainly me" has been clear, from the perspective of the country, it is necessary to take into account the periphery in the global economic and trade environment, and the foreign trade carriage is crucial.
So the real shift in China's domestic economic environment includes the capital market (stock market), the asset field (real estate market), as well as the real economy, manufacturing, and all walks of life that are related to upstream and downstream. It also requires patience at key nodes.
This is the coldest moment before dawn.
2 and 2022 two important nodes, one is the US mid-term election and the other is the highest-level important meeting of China. They will be settled in the second half of 2022. In addition to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the events and corresponding signals of these two key nodes are crucial to China's future economic trend.
3. The economic game between China and the United States and the competition between great powers are actually in the deep-seated areas of the economic and interest dimensions, and 2022 will become a crucial moment of decisive battle.
Under various complex situations around the world, such as the situation in Ukraine and many unpredictable various black swan , it can actually be seen as the United States is trying hard to lead global capital to achieve the purpose of transferring inflation by provoking disputes.
Even so, it does not mean that the United States has given up its covetousness and change of its goals. This understanding is very critical.
So even if China's economy is under pressure, at most it is a strategy of tightening internally and externally. Many invisible restrictions and regulatory controls will only be tight and not loose. The traffic light is only red light but no green light. Under the background of
, short-term market forecasts for the domestic financial market are basically meaningless, and there is no stable and safe economic environment. Don’t talk about the backbone with capital that seeks profit and avoids harm;
For the domestic asset market, that is, the real estate market, all current recovery and stimulation are all for urgent needs. This is already very clear. Some unrealistic ideas and expectations can be eliminated early.
For China's domestic economy, manufacturing, entities, and business activities, it is inevitable to be tested under the pressure of depression and austerity. It is not that the country will not relax, but that the reality is impossible to let US dollar capital enter the market and cause trouble under the cost of two years of cost and economic pressure.
However, such torture and confrontation will not last for a long time. In 2022, the dark battle before dawn will inevitably lead to the final result in a torment, dark and cold environment.
Choose to be in harmony with your own country, support understanding of the challenges and threats faced by China, and overcome difficulties together with your own country. This should not be a responsibility for every Chinese, but the most basic cognition and instinct.
How can you get the fragrance of plum blossoms without a bone-breaking cold?
or above are some personal thoughts and analysis studies on US inflation at the beginning of 2022, and I will share it with you friends.
Snow-pressing plum blossoms are very red! Image source: Toutiao Gallery
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