points to follow the blue words, don’t get lost~
Source: Securities China
Source: TuChong Creative
Stimulated by the news of "OPEC+" large-scale production cuts, international oil prices have risen continuously recently, and have been " five consecutive positive " during China's National Day holiday.
International banks are collectively bullish on the future market of oil prices, and returning to more than $100 per barrel has almost become a consensus. Goldman Sachs' latest report gave a "very optimistic" rating. Overseas energy stocks performed strongly, with Occupy Oil, which is heavily in stocks with Buffett , rising by 14% in October.
Crude oil has "five consecutive positive"
International crude oil has risen for five consecutive trading days this week. Wind data shows that as of the close of October 7 local time, the New York Stock Exchange WTI crude oil futures contract rose 5.37% on the day to US$93.2 per barrel; the ICE Berkeley crude oil futures contract rose 4.27% to US$98.45 per barrel, both achieving "five consecutive positives" in the daily line.
The "OPEC+" ministerial meeting held on October 5 local time decided to reduce the average daily oil output by 2 million barrels from November. This is the largest production cut of "OPEC+" since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020. According to media reports, Russian Vice Prime Minister Novak also said that Russia may cut oil production to offset the impact of the West imposed price caps on Russian oil.
International banks collectively sang many
Goldman Sachs immediately gave an analysis report and gave a "very optimistic" rating for crude oil.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that there are two major reasons for "OPEC+" to announce production cuts: first, they recognize that macro concerns are intensifying and positive measures are needed to stabilize the market; second, they believe that the world lacks idle production capacity, and oil prices need to be higher (especially relative to other energy prices) to stimulate appropriate investment. The idle production capacity in the oil market has been at an extremely low level for a long time, and higher prices are still a long-term solution to growth. The crude oil market will face huge deficits in the coming months.
Goldman Sachs believes that if this production cut continues until December 23 next year, oil prices will increase by $25 per barrel compared with its previous forecast of "2023 Brent crude oil 107.5 per barrel". If inventory is completely exhausted, prices may soar further, eventually destroying demand. In its view, this result may be an unsustainable benefit. Therefore, Goldman Sachs expects that cuts may only be temporary until some form of political easing allows a substantial rebound in quotas. Currently, Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year to $10 per barrel respectively to $110 and $115 per barrel, while acknowledging that price risks may be higher.
JPMorgan Chase also said that crude oil price needs to climb to a "significantly higher" level before drilling companies can significantly increase spending to increase supply. Although the global energy crisis is mainly powered by supply, major oil-producing countries are still reluctant to invest in long-term projects at current prices, said christan Malek, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase. At the same time, "OPEC+" has agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day. Malek said U.S. shale oil producers are "accustomed to returning cash and gaining more favor from Wall Street ", which limits the prospect of increasing capital expenditures at current price levels.
Bank of the US Global Commodity and derivatives research director Francisco Blanch said that if US President Biden uses strategic oil reserves to curb the soaring energy prices, it may strengthen the influence of "OPEC+" on the global oil market. Blanch said that after OPEC+ decided to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, there are few remaining options for White House to curb higher oil prices and its impact on consumers. One of the options — selling or lending more strategic reserves of oil — could backfire on the U.S. in the long run. Given the extremely tense situation in the world today, this is not a good idea. The United States consumes oil reserves and will hand over its own destiny more to the hands of "OPEC+", and ultimately "it will only hand over more and more market control."
energy stocks rose sharply, and the stock god bet right again
On October 6th local time, US stocks energy stocks rose collectively. Wind data shows that as of the close, Occupy Oil rose by more than 4%, ExxonMobil and Schlumberger rose by more than 2%, and Chevron and ConocoPhillips rose by more than 1%. On October 7, due to the overall sharp drop in US stocks, energy stocks adjusted, but were still significantly stronger than the market.
Among them, Occupy Petroleum performed particularly strongly, with a cumulative increase in the five trading days since October and the present has reached 13.59%.
Occupy Petroleum and Chevron are both stock god Buffett's love stocks. On September 28, according to the information submitted by Berkshire Hathaway to US Securities and Exchange Commission , between September 26 and September 28, Berkshire spent US$353 million, or approximately RMB 2.511 billion, and purchased 59.8519 million shares of Occupy Oil, with a trading price ranging from US$57.91 to US$61.38. According to relevant records of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Buffett has increased his stake in Occupy Oil many times since the beginning of this year. According to the current shareholding ratio, Buffett's Berkshire company's stake in Occupy Oil has risen to about 27%. In addition, Buffett also holds a heavy holding of another leading stock in the crude oil industry - Chevron, which is Berkshire's fourth largest holding.
On October 7, Beijing time, petrochemical stocks such as Hong Kong stocks "China Petroleum Co., Ltd." performed significantly better than the general trend, which made all parties also have some expectations for the post-holiday market of A shares energy stocks.
Editor: Ye Shuyun
Proofreading: Zhao Yan
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