Source: Global Times
[Global Times Special Correspondent in the United States Zhang Sisi Global Times Reporter Fu Honglie Ding Yazhi] This weekend, JPMorgan Chase , Morgan Stanley , and Citibank will all announce their third quarter financial reports this year. As an important weather vane of the US real economy, bank stock financial reports have attracted much attention, but market expectations are not optimistic. Reuters commented that U.S. banking profits are expected to fall in the third quarter as economic slowdown and volatile markets hinder transactions. The report also said that Federal continuous hikes in is an important reason for the unsatisfactory expectations for the third quarter financial report.
US investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase will be hit hardest. According to survey data from financial data research institution Refinitiv , analysts expect JPMorgan Chase to fall by 24%, and Goldman Sachs Group's profit will plummet by 46%. " Times " expects Citigroup's profit to fall by 32%; Morgan Stanley's profit to fall by 28%; and Wells Fargo's profit to fall by 17%. Federal interest rate hiccup , deputy director of the American Research Center of Fudan University, told the reporter of " Global Times ": "More industries in the United States are facing economic downturn, which is reflected in performance as a decline in profits."
He believes that Feder rate hiccup , on the one hand, has caused consumer confidence in the US market, and on the other hand, the rate hiccup is too large, and the market uncertainty is strong, and the momentum for domestic economic growth in the United States is relatively insufficient. If the interest rate hike policy continues to advance and interest rates continue to rise, the US economy will face great problems. "Even if the Federal Reserve rate hike is over, the impact of this policy on the US economy will still exist for a long time." Song Guoyou told a reporter from the Global Times.
In addition to the Fed's interest rate hike, the strengthening of the US dollar also has an impact on the overseas business revenue of US companies. According to , the revenue of PepsiCo in the third quarter increased by 16%, but the performance growth was not driven by the increase in sales, but due to the price increase of overseas products. It is worth noting that although PepsiCo achieved the goal of performance growth through pricing strategies, its gross profit margin still declined by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. According to Goldman Sachs data, about 30% of the revenue of U.S. companies comes from overseas, and the impact of the "strong dollar" on the company may be greater than the "supply chain problem", becoming the primary factor in the failure of the performance of U.S. stock companies to meet general expectations.
On October 13, US stocks experienced a strong "fluctuation", with the amplitude of S&P 500 index close to 5%. According to statistics from research institute Bespoke, such a large fluctuation has only occurred four times in history in one day. Some analysts say that the reason for this phenomenon is partly due to the higher-than-expected national consumer price index (CPI) data released by the United States. In addition, several companies that released their financial reports earlier did not show a sharp decline, giving the market some confidence. But it is worth noting that most analysts believe that the stock market rebound is difficult to sustain. Because the curtain has just begun for the third quarter financial report season of US companies, and the banking and retail giants, which were previously full of pessimism, have not yet released relevant data. " Wall Street Journal " said on the 12th that the financial report season is approaching, and US chip stocks may usher in another cold wave.
