In the early trading of the Asian market on Friday (October 14), the dollar index traded around 112.49; the US dollar fell against most currencies on Thursday, after the hotter US inflation report was higher than expected, but some investors believed that the market was overreacting to the data at the beginning; US stock rose sharply, and the three major indexes closed with gains exceeding 2%, due to technical support and investors short cover , driving the market to rebound strongly after a sharp drop earlier; after the data was released, the US dollar briefly hit a 32-year peak of 147.665 against the yen, and then reduced the gains, gold prices fell, and oil prices closed more than 2%, because of the low level of diesel inventories before winter, triggering buying and reversing the decline after crude oil and gasoline inventories were higher than expected.
Commodity closing situation: 2-month Brent crude oil futures rose 2.29% to $94.57 per barrel. U.S. crude oil rose 2.1% to $89.11 a barrel. The U.S. gold futures closed basically flat, with a settlement price of $1,677.00 per ounce.
U.S. stock closing situation: Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2.83% to 30,038.72 points; S&P 500 jumped 2.60% to 3669.91 points; Nasdaq closed up 2.23% to 10,649.15 points.
Friday prospects
Kansas Fed Chairman George delivered a speech on the U.S. economic outlook, Feder Director Cook made a speech on the economic outlook
Global market list
U.S. stocks rose sharply on Thursday, with the three major indexes rising by more than 2% at the close, driven by technical support and short cover from investors, driving the market to rebound strongly after a sharp drop earlier.
In today's sharp reversal, the S&P 500 jumped nearly 194 points from intraday lows to highs, the index's largest intraday point gain since January 24. Financial and energy stocks led the gains in each sector of the S&P 500.
After data showed that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, the market fell due to an estimated increase of 8.1%. "People may have been net shorts before the CPI report was released, and they saw that the report was negative, so they started to cover the shorts." Some strategists also pointed out that the S&P 500 index has some technical support around 3500 points. "This is due to technical factors," Lip said, adding that the recent sharp sell-off in the stock market could mean "bad news may have been digested. Entering the earnings season, what we really need is that things are not as bad as expected." The big Wall Street bank will report results on Friday, opening the third-quarter earnings season, and investors are waiting to see how the high interest rate environment affects their profits. Wobolian rose after the company's fourth-quarter earnings report was better than expected. New York Stock Exchange stocks rose and fell by 2.24:1; Nasdaq Exchange 2.10:1.
Three S&P 500 index component stocks hit a 52-week high, with 172 hitting new lows; five NASDAQ index components set new highs, with 600 hitting new lows.
precious metals
Gold prices fell Thursday as U.S. consumer prices rose higher than expected in September, solidifying bets that the Fed would stick to aggressive rate hikes . The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September after rising 0.1% in August. In the 12 months to September, CPI increased by another 8.2% after 8.3% in August. David Meger, head of metal trading at
HighRidgeFutures, said the data signaled that the Fed would raise interest rates more rapidly to fight inflation more aggressively, thus putting pressure on gold. After the data was released, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose. Rising interest rates and bond yields reduce the attractiveness of non-profit gold.
Meger said, “Before the report was released, there were some people who had been optimistic that we had seen slower consumer price growth and we were seeing obvious results as the data showed that this was not the case."U.S. interest rate futures traders have almost completely digested the Fed's fourth consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points at their Nov. 1-2 meeting, and after inflation data were released, they began to digest the possibility of a 10% increase in the next month's rate hike after inflation data was released.
Spot silver fell 0.9% to $18.87 per ounce, platinum rose 1.9% to $897.00 per ounce, and palladium fell 1.3% to $2,107.78 per ounce.
Crude Oil prices closed up about 2% higher on Thursday, as low levels of diesel inventories before winter triggered buying and reversed the decline after crude and gasoline inventories were higher than expected.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 4.9 million barrels to 106.1 million barrels in the week ended October 7, the lowest since May, while the expected decrease of 2 million barrels. This prompted investors to dislike the unexpected increase of gasoline stocks by 2 million barrels and a larger-than-expected increase in crude stocks to nearly 10 million barrels. Phil Flynn, an analyst at Chicago PriceFuturesGroup, said, “The most disturbing part of the (EIA) report is that distillate stocks are well below average. Winter is coming. The market is looking at the overall situation, not the short-term demand figures affected by the storm. ”
Many investors remain worried that rising inflation will weaken fuel demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that the global economy may fall into recession. U.S. consumer prices grew more than expected last month, and potential inflation pressures continued to increase, strengthening expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates for the fourth consecutive month by 75 basis points next month.
U.S. President Biden said U.S. gasoline prices remain too high and he will speak on cost reduction next week. Energy markets are also facing pressure from the dollar, which has rebounded widely, including low-yield currencies such as yen .
Forex
U.S. dollar against most goods The currency fell in volatile trading Thursday after a surge in early trading after a hotter U.S. inflation report was hotter than expected, but some investors believe the market was overreacting to the data at the initial level. After the data was released, the dollar briefly hit a 32-year peak of 147.665, and then narrowed its gains, with New York rising 0.2% to 147.25 yen late trading.
euro also initially fell to a two-week low against the dollar, then rebounding, up 0.7% to $0.9773. Greg Anderson, head of global foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said the current foreign exchange trend "is a manifestation of market pressure, panic about a slight deviation at a data point. The reversal of the US dollar trend is an impact. This is a super uneasy market, and a tiny flow can have an exaggerated impact. "
data shows that U.S. consumer prices grew more than expected in September, and core inflation pressure continued to rise, cementing expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points again at next month's policy meeting.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after rising 0.1% in August. Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted CPI would climb 0.2% in 12 as of September In the middle of the month, CPI rose by 8.2% after 8.3% in August. Federal funds rate futures also set the probability of 100 basis points hikes next month at 13.4%. Brian Westbury, chief economist at
FTAdvisors, said: "Although those factors that allegedly make inflation improve, inflation remains -- think of energy prices and used cars, which fell 1.1% in September. This is because overall inflation is, and has always been, a monetary phenomenon. The problem is that the Fed believes it can manage inflation by targeting short-term interest rates. We believe that the Fed needs to pay less attention to rate hikes and pay more attention to keeping the growth of money supply under continuous control. "
traders are generally still paying attention to Japan's intervention in supporting the struggling yen. Officials reiterate that they are ready to take appropriate measures to deal with excessive volatility in the currency, although it is still unclear whether they want to defend a specific level. Anderson of
BMO said, "I do think the Treasury will order another round of intervention in the coming weeks, and I think they will intervene somewhere at the 148 yen."Although this may only buy the Treasury for a few weeks. ”
USD versus the Swiss franc also rose earlier, the highest since May 2019. The US dollar rose 0.2% to 0.9995 Swiss francs in late trading; the Australian dollar fell briefly to a two-and-a-half low of $0.6170 before rebounding to $0.6291, up 0.3%. Meanwhile, the pound rose sharply against the US dollar, after reports that the UK government may make changes in its fiscal plans.
GBP New York was late trading at $1.1306, up 1.9%. The pound rose to a five-week high against the euro. The euro closed. At £0.8641, down 1.1%.
Sky News reported on Thursday that the UK government is discussing changes to the fiscal plan announced last month and looking at what parts of the tax cuts may be abandoned, which will put Prime Minister Trass in another policy reversal.
Market News
ECB hawk officials hope to start in early 2023 balance sheet reduction
ECB hawk officials tend to Let the assets held by the central bank automatically expire (that will not be reinvested by that time), rather than selling assets on the balance sheet. Central bank hawkish officials hope to start shrinking their balance sheet at the beginning of 2023, hoping to implement quantitative tightening (QT) in the form of back-end operation, and continue to focus on interest rates.
The Italian central bank lowers its economic growth expectations for 2023
0 Local time, the Italian central bank issued an announcement that due to high uncertainty in the economic situation, it will lower it by 202 Italy's economic growth in three years is expected to be 1 percentage point, from 1.3% growth in July to 0.3%. The Italian central bank said that if Russia's energy supply cuts and slowing trade occurs, it is expected that the Italian economy may experience a negative growth of 1.5% in 2023 and will not rebound until 2024.
Gazprom: Repair of the "North Stream" will take more than one year
Gazprom CEO Miller said on the 13th local time that most pipelines may need to be replaced in order to repair the damaged pipeline of the "North Stream" , the repair work will last for more than a year. Miller said that large sections of pipelines are full of seawater.
North Stock Exchange listed companies have increased to 117, which will further expand the coverage of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises
On October 14, Haineng Technology was listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange. As a result, the total number of listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange increased to 117. At the 11 months since the opening of the market, the Beijing Stock Exchange has entered the "high-quality expansion" lane. 19 companies have been listed since July. Zhou Guihua, chairman of the Beijing Stock Exchange, proposed to promote the Beijing Stock Exchange The high-quality expansion of the institute includes: implementing the integrated "process reengineering" of enterprise cultivation, listing access, daily supervision, and listing review, improving the quality and efficiency of audits, allowing high-quality enterprises to go public faster and develop better; strengthening the quality control of issuance and listing review, and better playing the role of the Listing Committee in check; enhancing industry inclusiveness and expanding the market's coverage of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises. (Securities Daily)
In order to avoid the peak of energy consumption in winter, French sugar factories started construction ahead of schedule
In order to avoid the risk of gas and power outages that may occur in winter, French sugar manufacturers were forced to 9 In advance production began in the month. Sugar factory negotiated with beet producers, and finally about 10% of farmers agreed to pick two to three weeks in advance. For this reason, they also need to pay more money to farmers to make up for the losses of farmers. This coupled with the rising energy prices, the production cost has increased rapidly. The sugar industry is a major energy consumer. A sugar factory consumes natural gas during the production season, which is the sum of 100,000 households. (CCTV)
The sixth railway union in the United States accepts the labor agreement supported by Biden and
to the United States National Fire Protection The majority of rail workers represented by the team members and the NFCO voted to accept the labor agreement, which was mediated by U.S. President Biden last month, with 58.7% of voters agreeing. Five unions have agreed to accept the agreement. NFCO Chairman Dean Devita said in a statement that despite accepting the labor agreement, many NCFO members were “disappointed by the terms”, with sick leave and leave policies being important issues. There are also five other unions that have been reported to end the vote in mid-November, after one union rejected the temporary agreement.
Saudi confirmed that the US government demanded that crude oil production should not be reduced in the midterm election month
Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed on the 13th that the US government had asked Saudi Arabia and other major oil-producing countries to postpone the plan to start a significant reduction in crude oil production in November this year by one month. According to the Associated Press interpretation, the Biden administration has proposed to Saudi Arabia to postpone the reduction of crude oil production for one month, with the aim of reducing the risk of oil prices soaring before the US Congress midterm elections in November, so as to facilitate the Democratic election situation. Saudi Arabia rejected the US demand "bright" of its refusal. US President Biden said on the 11th that Saudi Arabia's approach has "consequences." (CCTV News)
Americans will pay the biggest price for insulation this winter
According to the latest data from EIA, the average electricity bill for households in the United States this winter is expected to be $1,359, which will be the highest level since at least 1997. While the surge in electricity prices is mostly driven by high gas costs, households relying on oil for heating — the Northeast, for example — will take a bigger hit, with an average electricity bill reaching $2,354.
This prospect emerges as diesel and gas shortages make it difficult for families around the world to overwinter. In Europe, the Ukrainian war has exacerbated an already tense gas market, and governments are developing contingency plans to keep energy supply. Higher energy costs are exacerbating historic inflationary pressures, and consumers have already paid more for everything from gasoline to groceries.
In the United States, diesel supply is at its lowest season on record, while gas stocks are 6% below the five-year average. Energy tightening will mainly affect , northeastern United States, where natural gas pipeline capacity is limited and diesel is relied on heating.
The agency said that both natural gas and distillate oil (including heating oil) prices will rise nearly 30% this winter. Although increased U.S. production may increase gas inventory, distillate production is expected to remain at last year's level.
Polish begins to repair the "Friendship" oil pipeline
On October 13th local time, Polish Petroleum Pipeline Operations Company (PERN) said in a statement that the company's technical department has begun to repair the "Friendship" oil pipeline, "the goal is to restore the operation of the main pipeline as soon as possible and fully realize crude oil pumping." The statement stated that between the evening of the 12th and the early morning of the 13th, the oil in the damaged pipeline has been cleaned up, creating safe conditions for the repair of the pipeline. At the same time, an investigation into the cause of the incident is still underway, and the technical department has found a leak point. The preliminary investigation results show that "there is no sign of third-party intervention." (CCTV News)
This article is from Huitong.com
