Liu Qiannan
Investment consulting business certificate number: Z0014425
Shipping/container capacity
[Important information]
1. Dry bulk freight rate: BDI on the 10/13th was 1818 points, month-on-month and -66.9% year-on-year.
2. Container freight rate: SCFI container freight index on the week of 10/7 was 1922.95, which was unchanged from the week of 9/30, and -58.6% year-on-year. Among them, the Shanghai-Mexi container freight rate is US$2399/FEU, which was unchanged from the week of 9/30, and -62.3% year-on-year. Shanghai-Europe container freight rate is US$2950/TEU, which was unchanged from the week of 9/30, and -61.8% year-on-year.
3. On October 14, Mysteel counted the national imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports in 12992.70, an increase of 30.85 month-on-month; the average daily port discharge volume increased by 314.07 to 9.23. In terms of component, Australian mines fell by 5813.82, Brazil mines increased by 83.73; trade mines decreased by 7843.71, pellets increased by 10.85, refined powders decreased by 912.70, block mines decreased by 51.42, and coarse powders increased by 9548.93; 91 ships in port were 91. (Unit: 10,000 tons) Statistics the total imported iron ore inventory of 47 ports nationwide was 136.997 million tons, an increase of 408,500 tons month-on-month, and the average daily port release volume of 47 ports was 3.248,700 tons, an increase of 83,300 tons month-on-month.
4. The US CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, with an estimated 8.1%, with an previous value of 8.3%. The US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, with an estimated 0.2%, with an previous value of 0.1%.
5. Weeks 39th to 40 of 2022 (September 24th to October 7th, 2022), the number of ships waiting in line at major ports in the world decreased by 13.2% compared with the previous biweekly statistical value, the average waiting time decreased by 28.3%, and the port congestion situation was greatly alleviated.
[Traffic Outlook]
In terms of containers, airlines significantly reduced their capacity deployment after the National Day holiday on the supply side, which is expected to alleviate the decline in freight rates. The demand side was affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and global high inflation. The US CPI and PPI exceeded expectations in September, and the expectation of interest rate hikes in was further strengthened. U.S. import demand is expected to weaken significantly in the fourth quarter. The supply and demand pattern of container transportation is gradually turning to loosening, and freight rates are expected to continue to fall in the short term, but the decline has narrowed due to the support of airline suspension. In terms of dry bulk, coal-related coal-fired power reopening under the background of the European energy crisis, domestic thermal coal main production areas rebounded and supply and transportation were restricted. Japan and South Korea and other countries still have strong demand for thermal coal, but recently, the coal shipment was blocked due to rainfall, and the coal supply side was suppressed. In terms of iron ore, the domestic epidemic has caused the reduction in scrap steel usage to support the demand for iron ore, and pay attention to the future production restrictions of steel mills and the progress of future infrastructure projects. In terms of food, shipment volume is affected by the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the decline in inland water levels in the United States. Shipping is still under pressure. It is expected that the water level of the Mississippi River will not improve before the end of October. Comprehensively, dry bulk freight rates will remain fluctuated in the short term with the support of the peak season, focusing on Indonesia's rainfall and steel mill production restrictions. It is expected that the short-term freight rate will remain fluctuating, and there is still room for rebound in the fourth quarter, but the height is limited.
soybean/meal
[Foreign market situation]
CBOT soybean index rose 1.12%, closing at 1404.5 cents/pit, and the US soybean meal index rose 1.34%, closing at 409.4 USD/short ton.
[Related Information]
1. Argentina Soybeans: The government ended the preferential exchange rate mechanism for soybean exporters at the end of September. From September 29 to October 5, producers sold 375,000 tons of soybeans, lower than the 1.7 million tons sales in the previous week. As of now, Argentina grain producers have sold 69.8% of the soybean harvest in 2021/22, slightly higher than the 68.4% of the same period last year, but weekly sales slowed down;
2. Oil World: Due to the low water level of the Mississippi River, the acceleration of harvest is in sharp contrast to the continued traffic bottleneck in the United States. After dredging operations, parts of the southern Mississippi state of have reopened barges on the weekend.However, the water level is expected to drop to a new low in the near future;
3.USDA: Analysts estimate that as of the week of October 6, the US soybean export sales in 22/23 will increase by 600,000 to 1.4 million tons, and the US soybean meal export sales in 22/23 will increase by 50,000 to 300,000 tons, of which the sales in 21/22 will decrease by 5 to 00,000 tons;
4. My agricultural products : As of the week ending October 7, the actual crushing volume of soybeans in 11 oil mills was 1.5235 million tons, with a starting rate of 52.95%, of which soybean inventory was 3.7631 million tons, an increase of 33,100 tons from last week, an increase of 0.89%, a decrease of 1.6759 million tons from last year, a decrease of 30.81%. Soybean meal inventory was 341,100 tons, an increase of 9,700 tons from last week, an increase of 2.93%, and a decrease of 317,800 tons from last year, a decrease of 48.23%.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Although the expected increase in production in South America is strong, the increase in production in new US soybeans is not as expected, and the domestic market continues to be tight. Under this background, the overall unilateral bean rapeseed meal maintains a strong operating trend
2. Arbitrage: MRM01 price difference narrows
3. issue Right : Wait and see (views are for reference only, not used as a basis for trading)
Oil sector
[Foreign market impact]
Cbot US soybean oil main price change range +1.14% to 66.34 cents/pound; BMD Horse palm oil main price change range -1.88% to RM3663/ton.
[Important News]
1. Market News: India's palm oil import volume in September was 1171913 tons, higher than 994997 tons in August. India's soybean oil imports in September were 261,815 tons, up from 244,697 tons in August.
2. Research company Affin Hwang Capital said that Malaysia gross palm oil production in 2022 is expected to be 18.1 million tons, basically the same as in 2021. If heavy rainfall continues, Malaysia's palm oil production may have peaked in September 2022. .
3. Influenced by factors such as strong demand on the eve of the festival season and the expansion of palm oil discounts compared with competition, India's palm oil imports jumped to the highest in the year in September. The Indian Solvent Extractors Association said in a statement that imports in September jumped 18% month-on-month to 1.17 million tons, the highest since September last year. A trader in Mumbai from an international trading company said: "The price discount of palm oil is wider than that of soybean oil, making palm oil prices very attractive to Indian refiners who need to meet the demand of the festival season.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Oil and fats maintained a slight fluctuation yesterday. Driven by rumors of round-rotation storage, the trend of soybean oil is near weak and far strong. It is expected that round-rotation storage provides a large supply of near-rotation storage, and the increase of soybean oil near-rotation will be under pressure. It is recommended that 11 and 01 soybean oil partially take profit. 11,000 test short at highs 05 Vegetable oil.
2. Arbitrage: Layout around -800 to -1000, Y01-OI05 is set up.
affected by the sale and deposit Y01-05 temporarily leaves the market, Y11-01 takes profit when the price is high.
3. Options: Stay waiting and see.
corn/corn starch
[Important information]
1. Market news: Russia has submitted concerns about the Black Sea grain export agreement to United Nations , and is preparing to refuse to renew the agreement next month unless its requirements are met.
2. According to the latest survey data of the Mysteel corn team on 96 major corn deep processing manufacturers in 12 regions across the country, in the 41st week of 2022, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 2.065 million tons as of October 12, up 6.33% from last week.
3. According to Mysteel farmers Product statistics, in the 40 weeks of 2022 (October 6-October 12), the 126 major corn deep processing enterprises (including 69 starch, 35 alcohol and 22 amino acid enterprises) in the country consumed a total of 1.064 million tons of corn, an increase of 38,000 tons over the previous week; an increase of 4.8 tons year-on-year compared with last year, an increase of 4.77%. By enterprise type, among which corn starch processing enterprises accounted for 55.60%, a total of 592,000 tons digested, an increase of 26,000 tons over the previous week; corn alcohol enterprises accounted for 30.75%, digested 327,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons over the previous week; amino acid enterprises accounted for 13.65%, digested 145,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons over the previous week.
4. According to foreign media reports, France AgriMer, a crop office under the French Ministry of Agriculture, raised France's soft wheat export estimates to non-EU regions, which is currently estimated to be 15% higher than the previous year, but said sales will depend on Ukrainian cereal exports. FranceAgriMer said in a cereal supply and demand outlook report that France's current exports of soft wheat outside the 27 EU member states are estimated to be 10.1 million tons, up from the 10 million tons expected in July. France is the largest wheat producer in the EU. Due to the impact of drought, the country's wheat production has declined slightly, but due to the conflict in Russia and Ukraine, the export of Black Sea wheat was blocked, and the strong demand in the summer benefited France.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: US corn futures went firm on Thursday, as Russia said it might not renew the Black Sea Cereal Export Corridor Agreement, which allows Ukraine's grain exports. . Domestic corn futures prices are running strong in the short term, but there is not much room for further upward during the autumn harvest period, and the range is expected to fluctuate mainly. It is recommended that industry customers can wait for the rebound to participate in the hedging of the sell.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Wait for the rebound to sell c2301-C-2860, or sell c2301-C-2860 and sell c2301-P-2660. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
live pig
[Market Information]
1. Spot Quotation: Last night, the national live pig purchase price continued to rise, of which 27.2-27.8 yuan/kg in the Northeast region, up 0.8-1 yuan/kg, up 27.6-28.4 yuan/kg in the North China region, up 0.6-0.8 yuan/kg, up 28.2-29 yuan/kg in the East China region, up 28.2-29 yuan/kg in the North China region, up 27.6-28.4 yuan/kg in the North China region, up 0.6-0.8 yuan/kg, up 28.2-29 yuan/kg in the East China region, up 27.6-28.4 yuan/kg in the North China region, up 0.6-0.8 yuan/kg, up 28.2-29 yuan/kg in the East China region, up 27.6-28.4 yuan/kg in the North China region, up 0.6-0.8 yuan/kg, up 28.2-29 yuan/kg in the East China region, up 27.6-28.4 yuan/kg in the North China region, up 0.6-0.8 yuan/kg in the North China region, up 0.6-0.8 yuan/kg in the North China, up 28.2-29 yuan/kg in the East China region, up 27.6-28.4 yuan/kg in the North China region, up 0.6-0.8 yuan/kg in the North China, up 0.6.6-29 yuan/kg in the North China region, up 0.6-28.4 yuan/kg in the North China region, up 0.6-0.8 yuan/ , rose 1 yuan/kg, 27.2-28.6 yuan/kg in the southwest region, up 0.8-1 yuan/kg, 28.2-28.8 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan/kg;
2. Piglet sow prices: As of the week of October 8, 2022, the national price of 15 kilogram piglets was 665 yuan, up 28 yuan/head from the previous week, and the sow price was 1,781 yuan, up 1 yuan/head from the previous week;
3. EU agricultural market outlook: EU pork production will drop by 5% in 2022. Specifically, Germany, Poland , Belgium , Romanian and Italy were more affected, while Dutch and France were less affected. African swine fever (ASF) still had a serious impact on German pork production, with pork production falling by 10% year-on-year from January to June 2022; Spain's pork production growth momentum in 2022 was less than that in 2021. Due to the continued increase in investment costs and the combined impact of African swine fever, it is expected that the EU pork production will drop slightly by 0.7% in 2023;
4. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs : "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" is 129.05, up 0.28 points, and the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index is 131.09, up 0.32 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 33.80 yuan/kg, up 0.9%; beef was 78.37 yuan/kg, down 0.5%; mutton was 67.35 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; eggs were 12.10 yuan/kg, up 0.5%; white chicken 19.45 yuan/kg, up 0.9%.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The tension in domestic spot fundamentals has not been fully resolved, but we need to be wary of the impact of futures prices due to policy intervention in the near futures. It is recommended to continue to maintain the idea of a small pullback and try short with a light position;
2. Arbitrage: LH1-3 reverse the setback
3. Right: Buy LH2301-P-23500 and sell LH2301-P-22500 (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
Chicken
[Important information]
1. White Feathered Boiled Chicken: Last night, the mainstream quotation for Shandong White Feathered Broiled Chicken Peak was 4.45 yuan/jin. (My Agricultural Products Network)
2. White-feathered broiler chicken seedlings: Shandong Dachang chicken seedlings will steadily priced at 4 yuan/feather tomorrow. (My Agricultural Products Network)
3. Split products: On 10/13, the price of frozen large breasts in North China and Northeast China stabilized, at 10.4-10.8 yuan/kg. ( Zhuochuang Information )
4. Zhuochuang Information: On September 30-10/7th, this week, Zhuochuang Information monitored a total of 48.032 million birds of seedlings, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%.
5. Zhuochuang Information: The survival rate of broiler breeding in September was 94%, an increase of 2pct from August month-on-month, and the same year-on-year period last year.
6. In September, China's white-feathered broiler output was 460 million, -1.7% month-on-month and -2.3% year-on-year. From January to September 2022, the total output of white-feathered broilers was 3.604 billion, a year-on-year-on-year.
7. According to Beijing News citing Reuters , according to data from European Food Safety Bureau, European Center for Disease Prevention and Control and the EU Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory, large-scale avian influenza has occurred in Europe since June, which has affected 37 European countries, from Svalbard Islands in Norway to Ukraine, which is the largest geographical range on record. The damage caused by Europe's avian influenza epidemic, which is known as the "largest scale in history", is also huge. At present, nearly 48 million birds have been culled.
8. According to Mysteel agricultural product data statistics and market research analysis, from January to April 2022, the number of ancestral ancestry introductions in my country reached 402,900 units, an increase of 8.34% over last year; from May to July, the number of ancestry introductions in the ancestors was basically the main source of self-producing updates; from August to September, the number of ancestry introductions in the ancestors was 108,500 units, a decrease of 54.55% over last year.
[Traffic Outlook]
Supply end, it is expected that feather chicken slaughter will recover after the holiday, but considering that the amount of chicken seedlings in September is not much, it is expected that feather chicken supply in October will still be relatively small. On the demand side, the new crown epidemic problem in Shenyang, Liaoning, Yingkou , Haicheng , Jinzhou and other places recurred sporadically. The epidemic rebounded in Shandong, which suppressed transportation and terminal consumption. Considering that the consumption off-season after the holiday, it is expected that the short-term price of feather chickens will fluctuate, and there will be room for price decline after the concentrated restocking period. Looking at the entire fourth quarter, the overall price of feather chickens is still expected to be at a high level under the support of high breeding costs.
eggs
[Important information]
1. Spot: Yesterday, the price of mainstream eggs in the country rose mainly, with the average price in the main production area being 5.73 yuan/jin, up 0.07 from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales area was 6.1 yuan/jin, up 0.11 from the previous trading day. Today, the national egg price has been stable and rising, and the prices in the Beijing market have risen. The mainstream wholesale prices of Shimen, , Xinfadi, , Huilongguan, etc. are 275 yuan/44 jin, up 5 yuan from yesterday's price. As of 7 am, Dayang Road has a total of 8 vehicles arrived. There are many goods and the goods are generally sold. The mainstream wholesale prices are 280-285 yuan, which is the same as yesterday's price. The price of eggs in Shanghai is stable, with the price of ordinary powdered eggs being 265 yuan/45 jin, the same as yesterday, while the price of red eggs being 169-170 yuan/27.5 jin, the same as yesterday. Today, the prices in Liaoning and Jilin are stable, and the prices of eggs in Heilongjiang are rising; most of the mainstream prices in Shandong are raised, the prices in Henan are rising, the prices in Shanxi are rising, the prices in Hebei are rising, the prices in Hubei are rising, the prices in Jiangsu are rising, and the prices in Anhui are rising, and the prices in local eggs are high and low, and the prices of eggs continue to fluctuate and consolidate, and the goods are normal.
2. Zhuochuang data: In September 2022, the national number of laying hens on the rise was 1.184 billion, an increase of 0.2% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year, in line with expectations. In September, the monthly emergence of the sample enterprises' egg hen seedlings (accounting for 50% of the country) was 37.46 million birds, an increase of 4.3% month-on-month and a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year.
3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens in the main production areas in the country in October 7 was 13.9 million, a decrease of 3.8% from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information, the elimination chickens in key production areas across the country were monitored and counted for days. The average elimination age of elimination chickens in the week of October 13 was 527 days, an increase of 4 days from the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data: the national representative sales area of eggs in the week of October 13 was 7766 tons, an increase of 6.1% over the previous week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data: the inventory and inventory of the production link in the week of October 13 did not change much. The average weekly inventory of the production link was 1.2 days, the same as the previous week, and the average weekly inventory of the circulation link was 0.84 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week.
6. Yesterday, the price of eliminating chickens in the main production areas across the country was stable, and the average price of the main production areas of Tao chickens was 6.6 yuan/jin, the same as the price on the previous day.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: Currently, eggs maintain low inventory and high cost and peak demand season characteristics. The recent wave of price increases is largely due to the epidemic. However, the epidemic situation in various places has been slightly alleviated recently, epidemic prevention policies in various places have also been slightly relaxed, residents' enthusiasm for purchasing has declined, and spot egg prices are expected to be difficult to continue to rise. Judging from the current spot egg prices, the price of egg futures is relatively low. In addition, the price of futures in October is also relatively strong. It is recommended to continue holding long positions, but when the platform rose to 4600-4700, it is recommended to settle some long positions.
2. Arbitrage: Due to the strong spot price, it is expected that the near-month and the far-month are relatively weak. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
White sugar
[Important information]
1. In order to avoid the risk of gas and power outages that may occur in winter, French sugar manufacturers were forced to start production in advance in September. The sugar factory negotiated with the farmers who produced beets and . In the end, about 10% of the farmers agreed to pick them two to three weeks in advance. For this reason, they also need to pay more money to the farmers to make up for the farmers' losses. This coupled with rising energy prices has led to rapid increase in production costs. The sugar industry is a major energy consumer. The consumption of natural gas in a sugar factory during the production season is the sum of 100,000 households.
2. This month, China's sugar import volume increased by 500,000 tons in 2021/22, and other estimated data will not be adjusted for the time being. China's sugar production and sales ended in 2021/22. As of the end of September, the country's cumulative sugar production was 9.56 million tons, a decrease of 1.11 million tons from the previous year; the cumulative sugar sales amount was 8.67 million tons, a decrease of 950,000 tons from the previous year; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 90.7%, an acceleration of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year. The annual average price of sugar is 5,706 yuan per ton, which is within the forecast range, up 328 yuan per ton compared with the previous year, an increase of 6.1%; the annual average price of international raw sugar is 18.9 cents per pound, which is within the forecast range, up 2.3 cents per pound compared with the previous year, an increase of 13.9%.
3. The report of the Brazilian Sugar Cane Industry Association (Unica) shows that in the second half of September, the sugar production in the main production areas of Brazilian in the central and southern regions was 1.7 million tons, a decrease of 27.3% from the same period of the previous year. Unica reported that in the second half of September, ethanol production in southern and central Brazil was 1.42 billion liters, a year-on-year decrease of 28.6%. Unica reported that in the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume in southern and central Brazil was 25.29 million tons, a decrease of 29.7% from the same period last year, as heavy rains occurred in the country's major sugarcane production areas. The report shows that in the second half of September, Brazilian sugar factories used 45.4% of sugar cane to make sugar.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The rise in raw sugar has driven the increase in import costs, but the new domestic crush season has begun, demand is still weak, and the short term may still be mainly fluctuating.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: wait and see. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Cotton-Cotton Yarn
[Foreign market impact]
overnight ICE US cotton price fluctuated sharply, with the December contract falling 0.1 cents/pound (-0.12%) to 84.76 cents/pound.
[Important Information]
1. As of 24:00 on October 12, the cotton processing data for 2022 are as follows: Xinjiang has a total of 162,900 tons processed, a decrease of 57.62% from 384,400 tons in the same period last year. On the 12th, Xinjiang lint was processed 21,800 tons, while the daily processing volume was 47,800 tons in the same period last year.
2 and on the 12th, the purchase price of seed cotton in most areas of Xinjiang was in an upward stage, and the average purchase price of machine-picked cotton in some areas of northern Xinjiang has risen to 6.0 yuan/kg, a significant increase compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang has remained stable for the time being. Individual areas of hand-picked cotton rose slightly.
3. Recently, spot purchases and sales in India have been relatively light overall, and prices in many places in the north, central and southern regions have been loosened. Specifically, the current transaction price of new cotton in the northern cotton area has fallen by 500-1,000 rupees/kandi. Among them, the transaction price of new cotton in the northern areas of Pu and Rajasthan is basically between 67,500-68,500 rupees/kandi, and Haryana in the state of in 67,000-68,500 rupees/kandi.Central Gujarat S-6 new cotton (length 29mm) sold at Rs 70500-71500/kandi, quotation for length 28.5mm is 69500-70500/kandi; Maharashtra higher-grade quality new cotton is 70500-71000/kandi.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. One-sided: Currently, the average purchase price of cotton picking in the ginning factory is 5.5-6 yuan/kg. Recently, the purchase price of seed cotton has increased, and the cost of processing lint has increased. Due to the epidemic in Xinjiang, liquidity is restricted in various places, the progress of cotton processing is slow, and due to the difficulty of going out to Xinjiang, the domestic cotton inventory is low, textile factories are difficult to purchase, and spot prices have risen, which supports the recent market prices. Zhengzhou cotton prices may still strengthen slightly in the short term. However, from a medium- and long-term perspective, cotton will eventually return to supply and demand fundamentals, and the demand for cotton will also face greater pressure as the off-season approaches. You can consider building short positions at highs in the medium and long term.
2. Arbitrage: Consider that January and May are the peak period for cotton listing, while September is low and the demand is good. It is recommended to consider shorting May and September.
3. Options: wait and see. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Peanuts
[Important information]
Yesterday, the domestic peanut prices were running smoothly, and the Northeast production areas were launched sporadically. Recently, traders have basically established a small amount of inventory. Affected by price support, the overall pace of goods sales has slowed down, and they are mostly based on on-demand procurement. The arrival volume of oil plants is stable, and the overall price is relatively limited. The arrival volume of factories such as Luhua Laiyang, Zhengyang , Xinxiang remained at 200-400 tons, with a transaction price of 9500-9700 yuan/ton, and some transactions of 9900-10,000 yuan/ton were maintained at high prices. Linyi Jinsheng and Yuhuang arrived in small quantities, and the transaction price of oil and rice was 9300-9600 yuan/ton.
Peanut Oil: The domestic peanut oil market is running smoothly, and the peanut oil trading volume is limited. In terms of by-products, the price of peanut meal is relatively strong, with the quotation being between 5,400-5,500 yuan/ton. Recently, peanut oil sales have been average, and the oil factory strategy mainly maintains the idea of keeping meals, while the willingness of other factories to enter the market has increased. In terms of price, the current mainstream quotation for domestic first-class ordinary peanut oil is 17,700 yuan/ton; the market quotation for small-pressed strong-flavored peanut oil is 20,000 yuan/ton.
[Operation suggestions]
One-sided: Yesterday, the peanut market and spot stocks remained fluctuated. Judging from the overall industrial structure, the current price of peanuts is relatively high. In addition to oil factories, the acceptance of high-priced peanuts is poor, and downstream consumption is also weakening. The current stage is in the stage of long-short game. The willingness of the oil factory to acquire will directly affect the peanut market, and the capital sentiment will also affect the height of the market, which has little to do with the fundamentals of peanuts. It is recommended to keep waiting and watching for the time being.
month difference: Stay waiting and see.
futures strategy: 01 contract basis is around -550, you can choose to buy spot and sell the market for term arbitrage. However, the peanut delivery library storage capacity is expected to be saturated. Before operation, the storage capacity should be confirmed and the source of old peanuts should be locked.
(the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
