[Text/ Observer Network Qi Qian] OPEC+ recently announced the "major oil production cut plan" angered the United States. US media bluntly stated that this is a "direct blow" to the Biden administration: the production cut coincides with the US midterm election in November, and the continued rise in high oil prices will inevitably make the Democrats pay a political price. In fact, the Biden administration has long known this, so it tried hard to stop it before the production cut plan was announced, but it ended in failure.
The US " Wall Street Journal " recently quoted news that before the announcement of the OPEC+ decision, White House officials tried to persuade Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries to postpone production cuts by one month to reduce the impact on the US midterm elections, but were rejected by Saudi Arabia. The report described Saudi Arabia's rejection as a "resounding no".
On October 13, a statement issued by the Saudi Foreign Ministry posted this "resounding" on social platforms, supporting the authenticity of the above news.
. Regarding the accusation that the outside world believes that Saudi Arabia's production cuts are "selecting sides" in the geopolitical game, Saudi Arabia rejected all remarks without any facts and reiterated that OPEC+'s production cut plan is "purely economic considerations." The statement also pointed out that Saudi Arabia had continued to consult with the US government and still believed that "postponing the production cut plan for one month will have a negative impact on the Saudi economy."
Screenshot of the Wall Street Journal report
Has the Saudi crown prince been angry by the Biden administration?
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, high inflation and high oil prices have deeply troubled Western consumers, and have also affected the election situation between the Biden administration and the Democratic Party.
Seeing that the midterm election is approaching, in July this year, Biden lowered his posture to visit Saudi Arabia, and even met with the Saudi crown prince to "fight" and strive to convince Saudi Arabia to increase production. It is worth mentioning that the US intelligence agency once stated that the Saudi crown prince was related to the case of "dismemberment" murder of reporter Khashoggi in 2018, and Biden once publicly called Saudi Arabia a "untouchable state."
The Wall Street Journal reported on October 11 that now, Biden's "fist-bumping diplomacy" has failed.
Saudi government insiders revealed that Biden's visit in July not only did not change Saudi Arabia's determination to formulate a foreign policy independent of the United States, but also angered Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman. After Biden's visit, he told reporters that he accused the Saudi crown prince of the Khashoggi case in person at bilateral talks.
However, U.S. officials denied the statement, claiming they saw no signs that Biden's words had damaged U.S.-Saudi relations.
The Wall Street Journal also pointed out that Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman is committed to improving Saudi Arabia's economic strength, and oil revenue is the focus.
Saudi officials said that bin Salman had told his advisers that he was unwilling to make too much sacrifice for the Biden administration. In addition to energy income and Biden's speech in the Khashoggi case, another reason is that the Saudi and Biden administrations have differences on the Yemen and Iran issues.
People familiar with the matter from the United States and Saudi Arabia also mentioned an "interlude". Saudi Arabia had planned to push OPEC + to increase oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, but in August, the Saudi crown prince ordered the increase to a symbolic 100,000 barrels per day. The incident caused dissatisfaction with the Biden administration, and the White House also wrote a letter accusing Saudi Arabia of breaking its promises.
people familiar with the matter said that the email from the White House "stumed a big fuss", completely angered the Saudi crown prince and strengthened his determination to formulate an oil policy independent of the United States. Before the meeting of OPEC+ on October 5, the Saudi Crown Prince also called to support the organization to announce a "major production cut plan."
Biden and Saudi Crown Prince "fighted", picture from The Paper
The White House wants to struggle, but the reply is a loud "no"
"The Wall Street Journal quoted news that before everything was "final" on October 5, White House officials launched a "tensive and intense" lobbying campaign, trying to convince Saudi Arabia to postpone its production cut plan for one month - thereby reducing the impact on the Biden administration's midterm elections.
People familiar with the matter revealed that White House officials had a number of calls from the Saudi Crown Prince, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen also talked to the Saudi Chancellor of the Treasury.
Another person familiar with the situation claimed that another important member of OPEC, the UAE, also opposed production cuts, and those who hold the same stance are Kuwait , Iraq and Bahrain . They believe that production cuts may affect the global energy market. Before the OPEC+ meeting, UAE and U.S. officials had held talks with Saudi officials in an attempt to push for the delay of the production cut plan.
results show that the White House can be said to be "working hard in vain."
On October 5, OPEC+ held a ministerial meeting in Vienna and decided to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day from November. It is the largest oil production cut since the epidemic, equivalent to about 2% of global oil demand.
US officials bluntly said that in addition to disappointment, they were also caught off guard: because they thought OPEC+'s production cut was only 1 million barrels per day, but it doubled.
Some US media reported that the move could lead to a sharp surge in oil prices, putting further pressure on Western consumers plagued by high energy costs, and also helping Russia enrich the treasury during the "special military activities." Some media bluntly stated that this is a "direct blow" to the Biden administration. As the midterm election approaches, high oil prices will undoubtedly make Biden and the Democratic Party pay a political price.
Saudi Arabia insists that the move was for "economic reasons" and was just to ensure oil revenue. On the 11th, Saudi Foreign Minister said that OPEC+'s decision was "purely due to economic factors, not political factors."
The Wall Street Journal mentioned that oil prices have continued to fall in recent times, and there is a risk of falling below $80 per barrel. Saudi Arabia believes that if they do not take action to cut production, the oil market may collapse and oil prices may fall to $50 a barrel.
Despite this, the news still caused an uproar in the United States. The two parties, especially the Democratic Party, have "indigned" and accused Saudi Arabia of "using rising oil prices to help Russia", and have called for "revenge" or even "severe diplomatic relations." But US media and analysts believe that Biden's choice to deal with OPEC+ production cuts now "is limited and trade-offs need to be made."
Biden threatened to let Saudi Arabia taste the "consequences". Saudi Arabia hit back at
Compared with angry members of Congress, the White House is cautious. After repeatedly expressing his "disappointment", the White House announced on the 11th that Biden believes it is time to "re-examine" the US-Saudi relations and ensure that it is in the interests of the United States. Biden revealed on the same day that he would discuss with members of Congress, and then "they (i.e., Saudi Arabia) will have to - they will face some consequences for what they have done to Russia."
However, " New York Times " bluntly stated that it is not clear whether Biden's so-called "re-examination" means a shift in US-Saudi relations or whether it is to calm the pressure on domestic public opinion. The Washington Post reminds that given the importance of Saudi Arabia in the Middle East and the Arab world, any major downgrade of relations between the two countries may bring oil costs and beyond.
In addition, a U.S. official revealed to the Wall Street Journal that the first response measures of the Biden administration may include withdrawing from the Saudi-sponsored investment forum held later this month. At present, the United States has withdrawn from the Iran Working Group meeting expected to be held next week by the Gulf Arab Cooperation Council.
Saudi officials dismissed the allegations and criticized the Biden administration for opposing OPEC+ production cuts as a political strategy to stabilize votes in the midterm elections. A spokesman for the White House National Security Council denied the claim, claiming that linking U.S. opposition to the election is "absolutely wrong."
On October 13, the Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the Twitter account, clarifying its position again.
Screenshot of the statement of the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs
statement reads that the Saudi government saw the remarks against Saudi Arabia made by OPEC+ after the decision to reduce production, describing the Saudi decision as "taking a side in international conflicts, out of political motives against the United States."Saudi Arabia expressed its firm opposition to these "unrealistic" statements, and the decision on production cuts "is based on pure economic considerations and has been unanimously agreed by all member states."
It is worth noting that this statement also indirectly proves the authenticity of the above-mentioned report that "the White House once lobbyed Saudi Arabia to postpone its production cut plan."
"The Saudi government also wants to clarify one thing: given the importance of Saudi Arabia's belief in dialogue and exchange views on the oil market situation with allies and partners outside of OPEC+, the Saudi government clarified in its ongoing consultations with the US government that all economic analysis shows that postponing OPEC+'s (production cut) decision for one month will have a negative impact on the economy."
Saudi Foreign Ministry stressed at the end of the statement that Saudi Arabia regards the US-Saudi relations as a strategic relationship in the common interests of the two countries, but opposes any "stipulation, action or attempt" to try to distort Saudi Arabia's lofty goal of "protecting the global economy from volatility in the oil market."
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