United Nations data shows that as of the 16th, more than 6.2 million people left Ukraine. Among European countries, Poland , Romania and Hungary received 3.38 million, 920,000 and 610,000 Ukrainian refugees respectively, making it the three countries with the largest number of refugees within EU .
Poland's central bank governor Adam Glapinski said that recent demand from Ukrainian shoppers accounts for almost half of the country's consumer spending growth. In March, retail spending in Poland increased by 22% year-on-year.
Associate Professor Lai Xueyi, the European Research Center of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, said in an interview with First Financial reporter that Ukrainian refugees may boost consumption expenditures in EU refugee recipient countries, and the EU will also provide financial support to these recipient countries. However, due to the large number of refugees, the benefits may not be able to make up for the economic efforts.
Oxford Economics economist Mateusz Urban believes that although the influx of Ukrainian refugees into Poland will increase its fiscal burden in the short term, the boosting effect on the economy will offset the burden in the long term.
He Zhigao, an associate researcher at the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the First Financial reporter that the pros and cons of accepting Ukrainian refugees on EU countries such as Poland depends on how these refugees participate in the local labor market, especially whether they can become alternative labor forces in high-skilled labor areas such as Eastern Europe, and on the other hand, on how the EU coordinates the refugee distribution mechanism and how EU countries deal with redistribution issues such as social security.
pulls Polish consumption
Grapinsky explained that consumers from Ukraine have their own savings, and they have also received funding from governments such as Poland. They generally don’t save the money, but spend it immediately to buy the product they need most.
was driven by clothing and footwear sales. In the first quarter of this year, sales of LPP SA, the largest clothing company in Poland, increased by 45% year-on-year, and operating profit increased by 136% year-on-year. Sales of Polish footwear retailer CCC increased by 32% year-on-year, while its operating losses fell by half compared to last year. Data from
fintech company Global Payments also shows that in Romania, Ukrainian consumers are the largest foreign shopper group based on credit card payments in March. In that month, they conducted a total of 34,000 transactions and spent nearly $900,000, mainly to purchase products in supermarkets and pharmacies.
Lai Xueyi believes that Eastern European countries such as Poland are close to Ukraine. Because refugees can carry limited luggage when they escape, they should need to buy a lot of daily necessities after arriving at their first destination, which has driven local retail consumption.
consumption has always been the main driving force for economic growth in countries such as Poland. According to the government's data, in December last year, private consumption in Poland accounted for 50.4% of nominal GDP. In the past few years, this value has generally ranged from 50% to 62%.
In addition, Pawel Dobrowolski, chief economist at the Polish PFR National Investment Fund, said that most Ukrainian refugees have found jobs in Poland, which is expected to alleviate the problem of labor tension in Poland. Bloomberg quoted a survey of 300 Polish companies by market research institutions, showing that one-third of the companies have hired Ukrainian , most of which are in the hotel industry. What is the long-term effect of
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Many institutions have settled economic accounts for the EU to accept Ukrainian refugees. Vienna Institute for International Economics believes that caring for millions of Ukrainian refugees could cost EU countries 40 billion euros.
He Zhigao believes that at present, the large influx of Ukrainian refugees into the EU is not only an emergency response, but also a way for the EU to highlight its "moral commanding heights." Because Ukraine has certain historical and cultural similarities with the EU, and Eastern European countries have higher wages than Ukraine, there is a certain possibility that refugees will stay in the EU. But it is not ruled out that the situation in Ukraine will ease and they may return to their motherland. "Of course, there is another possibility that after several years of rest, Ukrainian refugees have gone to wealthier Western European countries such as Germany to seek development," he said.
Lai Xueyi said that whether refugees can stay longer also involves the issue of refugee integration, which has always plagued the EU. "In theory, countries have already had huge differences, and in practice, they are riddled with holes. At present, the number of refugees pouring into the EU by Ukraine has reached more than four million, and it is possible to continue to increase in the future. If refugees of this scale are concentrated in several countries, it will bring great challenges. This may require coordination of countries at the EU level to absorb refugees in a variety of ways," she said.
He Zhigao said that Ukrainian refugees may form a competitive situation for low-income groups in Poland and other countries and will add new expenditures to the already financially difficult government.
Lai Xueyi believes that as far as Ukrainian refugees are concerned, there are many people with strong funds and good educational backgrounds. If they finally decide to stay in EU countries, whether it is investment or employment, the EU economy will play an active role. At the same time, there are many children of Ukrainian refugees who are currently traveling to the EU. After receiving systematic education, they may enter the EU's labor market to alleviate the EU's aging problem. However, the investment in child welfare, education and medical care before this was calculated in ten years. As an investment, the possibility that these students will return to Ukraine midway or after graduation should also be considered.
Urban believes that even if a considerable proportion of refugees stay, it will only partially alleviate Poland's tight labor market. Due to the aging of Poland and the growth rate of wages is lower than the EU average, Poland's population structural problems will exist for a long time.
