On October 12, the A-share chip concept strengthened, with chip ETF (512760) rising 4.91%, with a turnover reaching 888 million. On the news side, on the one hand, there are rumors that TSMC, the leader in the foundry of semiconductor , has obtained a license to supply Huawei . On the other hand, the supply chain has reported that the SMIC N+1 process has been successfully dissipated.
TSMC did not make a positive response to whether to obtain a supply license to Huawei. The relevant spokesperson told the First Financial reporter on the 12th that "do not comment on market rumors."
It is worth noting that TSMC will hold a third-quarter financial report briefing on October 15, and the specific order changes will be announced at that time. Some institutions said that TSMC's 5nm production capacity was fully loaded in advance, and the gap left by Huawei's orders was blocked began to be covered by orders from manufacturers such as Apple.
In the industry's view, if there were no external factors, this was the first match between Huawei and Apple on the 5G track. Now, Huawei's Kirin chip has become a masterpiece, making this showdown less suspense and fair.
Apple VS Huawei
Compared with her peers, after being "late" for a year, Apple's first 5G phone is expected to be officially unveiled this week.
A week ago, Apple announced that it will hold a global new product launch conference at Apple Park at 1 a.m. Beijing time on October 14, Beijing time. This will be the second autumn launch conference held by Apple this year. At the press conference on September 16, Apple released new iPad, iPad Air and Apple Watch, but there was no iPhone 12 series, which also broke the convention that Apple released a new generation of iPhone phones in September for many years.
In the eyes of the outside world, the iPhone 12 series will inevitably become the protagonist of in this Apple new product launch conference. Regarding the "5G super cycle" brought by Apple's new flagship products, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty expects Apple to sell 220 million iPhone phones in the fiscal year starting this month, a 22% increase from the previous year, which will bring the company's annual revenue to more than one-fifth to $327.7 billion.
While Apple is brewing new products, on the morning of October 10, Huawei Mobile's official Weibo also released a message saying that the global launch conference of Huawei Mate40 series is scheduled to be held at 14:00 on October 22, Central European Summer Time. Huawei Consumer Business CEO O Yu Chengdong calls it "the most powerful Huawei Mate in history."
It is reported that Mate40 uses the Kirin 9000 series mobile phone chip, which is equipped with TSMC's 5nm process, which is also the industry's first 5nm 5G Soc with integrated 5G baseband. In the original plan, this phone will help Huawei reach the top two in the global smartphone rankings, and it is also the "trump card" facing Apple on the 5G track.
However, due to external factors, the stock volume of Mate40 is likely to face serious shortages. Huawei's rotating chairman Guo Ping told the First Financial reporter at Huawei's full connection conference that Huawei consumes hundreds of millions of mobile phone chips every year, and mobile phone reserves are still actively looking for solutions, and American manufacturers are also actively applying for licenses from the US government.
capacity gap who is covering
On July 16, TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin said at the second quarter financial report meeting that in the short term, the impact of inability to supply Huawei on the company is inevitable. TSMC is working hard to cooperate with other customers to fill the gap left by Huawei.
benefited from the scarcity of advanced process technology, and TSMC's current production capacity on 5nm has reached full production ahead of schedule.
Some institutions pointed out that TSMC's orders on 5nm are successfully gaining from the acquisition of production capacity by major customers such as AMD, Qualcomm , Apple, MediumTek . Specifically, TSMC's revenue in September increased by 24.9% year-on-year, 3.8% month-on-month, Q3 revenue increased by 21.65% year-on-month, 14.7% month-on-month, and Q1-Q3 cumulative revenue increased by 29.9% year-on-year.
CITIC Construction Investment Electronics team pointed out in the latest report that with the Q4 Apple A14 chips (the expected number of chips is 90 million), (TSMC) Q4 revenue is expected to continue to grow month-on-month. With the arrival of the peak season for consumer electronics in the second half of the year, the semiconductor demand side is expected to recover, and the demand for related components such as mobile phones, TVs, TWS headphones has been boosted, and the semiconductor industry chain ushers in gradual layout opportunities.
It is worth noting that Luo Zhenqiu, general manager of TSMC (Nanjing) Co., Ltd., said not long ago that it is expected to officially mass-produce 4nm chips next year. In addition, he revealed that 3nm chip products will be seen next year. In 2022, 3nm chips will enter mass production. TSMC's 3nm chips can be improved by another 10%-15% in performance, and power consumption can be reduced by another 25-30%.
This also means that for domestic manufacturers, including Huawei, if the supply of upstream chip manufacturing cannot be restored as soon as possible, catching up in advanced chip processes will become more challenging in the future.
