U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release US CPI data for September. Dow Jones 's current forecast is that CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in September, with a slight year-on-year increase to 8.1% (the previous value was 8.3%).
core CPI forecast to rise to 6.5% (present value 6.3%).
(core CPI forecast value, source investment.com)
Yesterday, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said in an interview with CNBC's Fast Money program that U.S. inflation will drop by half within half a year. That is, from the current 8% to 4%.
He made such a prediction mainly depends on the current level of oil prices (WTI oil prices are now around $87), supply chain problems continue to ease, and inferences that automobile prices begin to decline, other prices are expected to remain unchanged.
Zandi believes that the real hard part is falling from 4% to the target value of the Fed . As for CPI, the upper end of the Fed's target range may be 2.5%. Therefore, the next 150 basis points will take some time to fall back, because this will involve the service industry prices and, in turn, wages and labor markets. "It will take some time to cool down."
The Fed's long-term inflation target is focused on the personal consumption expenditure price index, namely the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, calculated and released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Research (BEA). The data range of PCE price index is wider than that of CPI, but the main body still comes from the CPI of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The current value of US PCE inflation is 6.2%.
