I believe everyone has seen the strength of the US dollar in the past period of time. This is reflected in the appreciation of the US dollar against the global mainstream currencies. The US dollar has appreciated by more than 25% against the Japanese yen, and the US dollar has ap

I believe everyone has seen the strength of the US dollar in the past period of time. This is reflected in the appreciation of the US dollar against the global mainstream currencies. The US dollar has appreciated by more than 25% against the Japanese yen, and the US dollar has appreciated by more than 20% against the Korean won and . The value of the US dollar has exceeded the euro. By the end of this year, it is very likely that the value of the US dollar will exceed the pound.

even the US dollar has appreciated strongly against the RMB for a period of time. Today, it has entered the 7th era. In a sense, the strength of the US dollar is the strength of the US economy and the crazy harvest of the world by the US. But on the other hand, is the strength of the US dollar really a good thing for the US economy?

Why has the US dollar been strong in recent months? This is because the Federal Reserve Fed is raising interest rates in . Since last year, due to the influence of the large-scale hike of Biden and the large-scale printing policy, the United States has ushered in a shocking inflation . To this day, the United States' CPI index is still as high as 8% and 9%, which is not seen in the past 40 years.

to calm inflation and lower prices. The Federal Reserve has begun a rate hike model. In just a few months, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times in a row, especially in the last three times, each time it has increased 75 basis points. After continuous operations, the United States has exceeded 4% today. The United States' 3 benchmark interest rate has exceeded 6% in 30 years, which is a very high number.

Today, the interest rate for buying a house in my country is only a few 3% of the loan, which is lower than the benchmark deposit rate of in the United States. Therefore, the US dollar is of course strong at such a high interest rate. However, under the continuous interest rate of the Federal Reserve, the inflation in the United States has not been greatly alleviated. The United States will encounter multiple rounds of crises due to the strong US dollar in the future, and the first thing to be affected is the US debt crisis.

We know that Americans live on debt. A typical American never saves money. They eat the food in the first place. They consume first and then repay the debt. Therefore, most Americans bear quite heavy debts, not only individuals but also countries. According to the announcement of relevant U.S. departments, the total amount of U.S. Treasury bonds has exceeded US$31.1 trillion today, and will soon reach the latest U.S. debt ceiling of 31.4 trillion US dollars. U.S. bond has soared rapidly in recent years at a snowball speed, and the upper limit of U.S. bonds has also been soaring.

In theory, Americans also know that it is not good to borrow money in a crazy way, so just like ordinary people have a credit limit on credit cards, the US Congress has also set a debt ceiling in order to prevent the US government from spending money randomly. If the US government wants to develop the economy, you can borrow money, but I set a total upper limit for you. You cannot borrow unlimitedly. If you borrow unlimitedly, the country's economy will collapse, so I look at you with the debt ceiling.

However, since the US economy has been dependent on debt in recent years, the US government has continuously asked the US Congress to adjust the debt ceiling. 20 years ago in 2002, the US Congress stipulated that the debt ceiling was about 6 trillion US dollars, and if it exceeds this number, it cannot be borrowed.

However, the US government can always find various reasons to raise the debt ceiling, and often threaten Congress that if you don’t raise it, the US government will have to close down. If I don’t have money, I can’t even pay the employees’ wages. So who will bear this political responsibility? It is up to Congress, so the US government can succeed every time.

In the past 20 years, this debt ceiling has been pulled 22 times in a row like a rubber band, adjusted 22 times, so it has been adjusted to $31.4 trillion today. However, it is obvious that it will take less than a month or two. The debt ceiling has been touched again. The US government needs to negotiate with Congress to raise the upper limit, so many people in the United States will propose that you still set the debt ceiling. It will be adjusted at least once a year in the past 20 years, and the adjustment will be higher. You might as well just withdraw the debt online like issuing an unlimited credit card.

But there are many people who say that there is this upper limit, at least the government needs to calculate carefully when spending money. If you really remove this upper limit, then the US government’s debt borrowing will be even more crazy. However, the recent soaring US benchmark interest rates may become the last straw that broke the camel's back. In the past, we often said that the US government was not worried about borrowing. Why? Because the US government has the best credit in the world, the US dollar is printed by others, and they can borrow new debts to repay old debts at any time, which is nothing more than pushing the debt higher and higher.

But the problem is that you not only have to pay back the principal of the old debt, but also pay back the interest on the old debt. Is it possible that one day the US government cannot even pay back the interest and borrow more money to repay the interest? This sign has appeared. Because the benchmark interest rate continues to rise, the Treasury bond interest rate will also be pushed up. Therefore, because the interest rate increases, the interest rate that the US government has to pay is increasing continuously .

Do you know that in August, the US central government's interest expenditure alone paid over US$80 billion in repayment of all Treasury bonds. Economists predict that according to the current high interest rate status, the US government's interest on Treasury bonds to be repaid in one year will exceed US$1 trillion, which is also normal. If you think the total amount of US Treasury bonds exceeds US$31 trillion, just based on the interest rate of about 3%, it will have to be close to US$1 trillion. Moreover, the interest rate of many newly borrowed bonds is far more than 3%. Now the benchmark interest rate is above 4%. You have to pay back US$1 trillion in interest alone. What does this mean?

As we all know, the US military expenditure is unique in the world. The US military expenditure is basically the same as that of all other countries in the world. But even so, the US military expenditure is only 700 to 800 billion US dollars a year, but the US government only needs to pay the interest on national debts of more than 1 trillion US dollars. This snowball must be getting bigger and bigger.

I think many friends with loan experience know that in the past few years, we cracked down on various campus loans and bare bank loans. Many young people said that I just bought a tube of lipstick and bought a mobile phone to borrow hundreds or thousands of dollars from the online loan. Why is my snowball getting bigger and bigger? When one day I want to repay the loan, I found that my loan had already rolled to hundreds of thousands. I kept borrowing new debts to repay old debts, and your interest was constantly pushing up. The snowball's rolling speed must be getting faster and faster.

Especially now, the United States is still facing the problem of the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes. Of course, the US dollar is printed by you. At any time, as long as you don't have enough money, you can continue to borrow debts and raise the debt ceiling, and then print the US dollar to repay the debt. But the problem is that if this continues, the balloon will always be blown up. If one day the US government's fiscal revenue per year is less than the interest on the Treasury bonds it had to repay that year, do you think the credit of the US dollar still exists?

In fact, the crisis facing the United States is far more than the government bonds and manufacturing industry. Trump After taking office, he clamored that manufacturing industry would return to the United States. Yes, as a businessman, he also accurately saw the problem of the United States, that is, the hollowing out of manufacturing industry. The United States, which once started with industry, is facing the relocation of a large number of production lines today, so Trump has given domestic companies huge discounts, hoping to return to the United States.

The current Russian-Ukrainian war is obviously also beneficial to the return of manufacturing to the United States. Compared with Europe and the United States, it has a more stable political environment, especially the United States has cheaper energy. After the success of the shale oil revolution today, the United States has long been self-sufficient in energy issues. The price of U.S. natural gas is only about one-something that of Europe. So due to energy issues and the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war, a large number of manufacturing industries are moving out of Europe today.Part of

has come to my country and part of it has gone to the United States. This is of course a great thing for the United States. It has imposed sanctions on Russia and harvested Europe, making it possible for the US manufacturing industry to usher in great development. After all, it can pick all the fruits of Europe, but the question is, under the strong US dollar, is it possible for the US manufacturing industry to revitalize?

Friends who do import and export trade know that when a country's currency continues to appreciate, this is a devastating blow to the country's exports. Previously, when the RMB continued to depreciate, we talked to you that the depreciation of the RMB certainly costs us more money on imports, but this is more or less a favorable factor for my country's exports.

You think our export products are denominated in US dollars, but the domestic pricing we received in the end is still in RMB. When the RMB continues to depreciate against the US dollar, this is equivalent to our export products being sold at a lower price and having greater competitiveness in the international market.

During the Trump era, trade frictions with my country were stifled by my country's trade exports. The trick he used was to increase tariffs. However, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in the past two months has actually eliminated this tariff invisibly. But on the other hand, when the US dollar continues to appreciate against the global mainstream currencies, think about the US export industry What kind of dilemma will the US manufacturing industry face?

The US dollar has been constantly appreciating against the euro, pound, pound, yen and Korean won in half a year. Many ordinary American consumers are so happy. They travel to Europe and travel to Japan and South Korea. The prices are like 20% off, 70% off, and 60% off. However, American manufacturing bosses are unhappy. What should I do if the US dollar appreciates so high? I still sell goods at the original US dollar price, which is equivalent to the price of the Japanese, Korean and European people. This price soared by 20% and has no price competitiveness at all.

If you lower the price, what industrial products can now have a profit of more than 20%. Therefore, the continuous strong US dollar has seriously stifled the competitiveness of the US manufacturing industry in price, which means that for a large number of European manufacturing companies, they are also facing a dilemma.

On the surface, if all manufacturing industries are moved to the United States, you can get cheaper energy, and the cost is low enough. You really can't develop in Europe. Such a high energy price is insufficient. If you can't guarantee civilian use, how can there be an extra energy guarantee industry?

But after arriving in the United States, the US dollar has risen like this. The Federal Reserve has said that it will raise interest rates many times this year. This product is not as competitive as you can at all. So we see that many European manufacturing companies have not chosen to go to the United States recently, but have come to China.

As our program said in the past, many policies in the United States have been too rough and fast in the past two years. When Biden first came to power, the new crown epidemic hit the economy severely, so it is necessary to stimulate the development of the US economy and to send money to print money. However, tens of trillions of dollars were printed at once to raise inflation. Now we need to flatten prices and stabilize inflation, so we need to raise interest rates. However, the benchmark interest rate was increased to more than 4%, making the strong US dollar a drag on the global economy.

There was a saying in ancient my country that governing a big country is like cooking small fresh food. What does it mean? Your policy should not turn too quickly, and it should not be implemented too hard. It should be like stewing fish, stewing it on low heat and adjusting it slowly to achieve results. But when the cooking oil comes up all of a sudden, not only does the fish look bad and the fish skin is muddy, but it cannot get in the taste.