Preface: Understanding risks is the first lesson of investment. Any investment, or even any behavior, has potential risks. Understanding risks is to better deal with the uncertain future of investment.
wind data shows that the default amount from 2018 to 2021 is between 100 and 200 billion yuan, and the default data is between 100 and 300. This year, the number of defaults is 153, and the amount of defaults is 70.904 billion yuan.
default types are divided into: failure to redeemed principal and interest, failure to redeemed reselling payment and interest on time, failure to redeemed principal and extension. The first three types of
are substantial defaults. If the extension is better than the default, that is, if there is no money for the time being, I still want to pay back the money. Of course, whether I can afford to pay back the money in the end is another story.
For us bond investors, the first choice is to try not to step on the mine, and the second choice is to deal with it after stepping on the mine.
Everyone wants perfect lightning protection. But to be honest: except for bond funds that only allocate pure interest rate bonds (the issuers of interest rate bonds are usually states and institutions with national credit backgrounds, such as treasury bonds, treasury bonds, etc., which have almost no default risk), no bond fund dares to guarantee that they will not step on the mine.
First of all, bond funds that have already stepped on the mine should not be allocated in the short term. The reason is very simple. Generally, the same fund company shares a bond bank, which means that there is still a certain probability that it will step on the mine.
So can the bond funds of this fund company never be allocated? This is not necessarily true. There is a saying that only after experiencing it can you understand it. Better learn from historical bond default experience, and also help to avoid lightning in the future.
Secondly, analyze some commonalities of bond funds that have already occurred or are suspected of bond defaults. When these characteristics appear, we must be vigilant. Just in case, you can choose to evacuate and wait and see first. The content of
, Sunshine in previous articles "Twelve hours of bond funds on August 21丨 See debt funds stepping on the thunder again? There have been relevant arguments in "Attached Lightning Prevention Tips", and we will focus on the conclusion.
The 15 pure bond funds that have increased by more than 3-1% this year have suspected of stepping on the mine (data as of August 21) have the following characteristics (the sample data is limited and the personal subjectivity of the views is strong, for auxiliary reference only).
1. During the reporting period, a single investor holds a fund share of 20%, and a huge redemption occurs.
2. Bond funds have experienced continuous declines against the market.
3. The scale of bond funds is less than 100 million.
4. The proportion of bonds with heavy bonds accounted for more than 50%.
5. Changes in fund managers.
6. The fund management scale of fund companies is less than 100 billion.
1, 2, 5 are abnormal situations, 3, 6 are reflected in the management capabilities of the fund company, and 4 are the losses that will be relatively large once the default is default. In addition, the same fund company has broken into the mines in the short term. Paying attention to these 7 points can reduce the probability of holding bond funds to a certain extent.
So how to deal with the debt fund after default?
also refers to the situation in the past. It can be found that most bond funds will continue to decline. On the one hand, it is the continuity of bond defaults, and on the other hand, the collective redemption of investors is likely to cause bond funds to fluctuate.
A small number of bond funds resume normal net value growth.
A very small number of bond funds have seen a significant increase in the short term, and it is highly likely that the default type is the extension mentioned above.
So when pure bond funds experience a drop of 1% or more in a single day, clearing up positions is a high probability of the correct choice. The bets that stay is too strong and is not suitable for low-risk investors.
Speaking of this, do you still dare to invest in bond funds?
In fact, the probability of a bond fund stepping on the mine is relatively low. There are 42 bond funds with negative growth this year, which means that with bond funds suspected of defaulting on the bond, the probability of a stepping on the mine is 0.25% (data as of August 21).
However, investment is not a competition of luck, but a competition of logic.You must have both good expectations and worst plans.
Simply put, on the one hand, you should disperse 's holdings , and do not only hold 1 bond fund. Secondly, be prepared for losses. Generally, the general decline range of the single-day general bond funds fall between 1% and 10%, so see if you can accept it.
That’s all for today’s sharing. Sunshine was also quite confused before writing. Investors generally like to share high returns. Those who raise risks are not generally welcomed by investors, and fund managers and other parties do not like it.
However, Sunshine always believes that appropriate risk warnings are a kind of responsibility to readers and friends and a part of the platform's good ecology.
Risk warning: The content is only for personal opinions and no investment advice is made. Funds are risky, so be cautious when investing.
