Recently, as the index dives , gold stocks have become active, and investors are also asking, is the gold opportunity coming? Everyone knows that last year, Yuming successfully seized several opportunities for gold stocks, and reminds everyone this year that there are not many opportunities for gold stocks, and it is a sideways tug-of-war process. Because 2016 is a frequent time for black swans, gold has many great opportunities; but in 2017 it is different. There is no such black swan event , so it can only trade sideways . So is there a chance for gold in 2018? When can gold stocks be laid out at the time and location? will do an analysis today.
Summary of gold and gold stock trends in 2017
as shown in the figure. This is the trend of US gold in the past two years. On November 9, 2016, the day when Trump won, US gold rose sharply, once touching US$1,338/ounce (note that this position has become an important resistance zone for US gold), and then it started a negative decline and fell to US$1,123/ounce. After entered 2017, its center of gravity began to gradually increase, but due to the continued impact of US interest rate hikes, it has been a volatile trend throughout the year. There have been a rebound of US$1,200/ounce, and a surge of US$1,358/ounce. But overall, it is still tug-of-war with US$1,270/ounce as the center axis, with an amplitude of about US$50 up and down . Why is there a tug-of-war trend? The pace of the Fed's interest rate hike is an important factor. This article will be explained in detail later, leaving a foreshadowing here. Before
, Yuming put forward a point of view, that is, starting from the first quarter of 2018, gold is expected to become a new investment target again. The basis for the name of Jade is . European and American stock markets have been bull market for several years, and their risks are also increasing, including the chain reaction caused by Trump's tax reform and the Fed's continued interest rate hikes, so the demand for funds to hedge is increasing . At the same time, technically, with the expectation of interest rate hike in December, US gold has been plunging continuously, which also paves the way for a low point next year. With the Federal Reserve hike this year and the UK hike, it means that the global loose monetary policy has come to an end. The liquidity carnival situation is difficult to reappear in 2018. In addition, European and American stock markets have been bull market for eight years, and investors' concerns are also heating up. In the past few years, BRICS countries such as China, Russia, and India have always been keen on reserve gold, because in the face of the financial crisis, hard currency such as gold can always have a better resistance effect. As shown in the figure, this is the latest gold reserve data released in December 2017. And recently, EU countries such as Germany have also joined the ranks. In fact, the report of World Gold Council (WGC) in the fourth quarter of this year showed that Germans invested $7 billion in the gold product market in 2016, while this momentum continued to grow in 2017, and there is still more room for growth in 2018. Germany's unstable economic history is one of the fundamental reasons for the country's investment in gold appreciation (in the past hundred years, Germany has eight different currencies). From this perspective, after the complex outlook for European and American stock markets in 2018, the role of gold hedging will be strengthened.
