data is a treasure
data treasure
stock trading less worries
What aspects should the market pay attention to in July?
Recently, the market in has shown a steady upward trend overall, with the three major stock indexes collectively closing up, and A-shares are leading the way among important global indexes. Regarding the July market, most brokerages are optimistic, believing that the market is expected to continue this upward trend in July. Institutional analysis and judgment of July mainly focuses on the following aspects:
First, economic expectations are revised upward, and the market is still expected.
Guotai Junan believes that since May, the economy and monetary policy, epidemic prevention and control, and regulatory policies have all turned more positive. For personal pension investment in public funds, and for ETF to be included in the interconnection, long-term incremental funds are expected to enter the market. Currently, the valuation of A-shares is at a relatively low level, with the fundamentals improving upward, and economic expectations improving. In addition, investors' awareness and concerns about risks have declined, A-shares are still in a promising position.
Shanxi Securities believes that upstream raw material prices are showing a downward trend, and the profits of mid- and downstream manufacturing enterprises and terminal consumption are expected to improve, supporting market performance from the molecular side. In addition, the domestic economic recovery trend remains unchanged. Many economic data have begun to release recovery signals, and liquidity remains abundant. As the impact of the epidemic fades, the economy gradually enters a stage of comprehensive recovery. The market risk preference will continue to improve, and the denominator is also expected to release positive signals, driving A-shares into a new round of structural bull.
The second is to focus on the two main lines of growth sector and reversal of difficulties.
Ping An Securities believes that in the context of economic structural recovery, policies are still loose, and overall liquidity is abundant, the growth sector is still expected to fluctuate upward in the medium term. First, the main line of growth and prosperity, including new energy ( photovoltaic /wind power, etc.), automobile electrification and intelligence (complete vehicles, batteries, automotive electronics, intelligent driving systems, parts, etc.). The second is the main line of the reversal of difficulties, among which scenario consumption is expected to gradually recover as the epidemic improves and the marginal easing of epidemic prevention.
Guotai Junan believes that macroeconomic and systemic risk expectations tend to stabilize, and the preference for performance certainty has declined. Marginal funds determine the style, investors with high risk preferences dominate the market, and investment style returns to the growth sector with long-term sustainable and high profit growth. In the next stage, two major investment themes are expected to continue to go beyond the limit. One is the core asset stocks that have expanded their competitive advantages under the stock economy and have undergone full adjustment in the stock price; the other is the new technology economy growth stocks such as new energy, digital economy, and independent controllable under the background of transformation.
BOC Securities believes that the domestic epidemic has eased marginally, and domestic credit is expected to stabilize marginally; expectations of overseas recession have heated up, and the impact on A-shares has weakened. Several major factors that suppress the market in the early stage are expected to be alleviated to varying degrees. The market is expected to gradually transition from the early defensive logic of killing valuations and focusing on low valuations to focusing on profit stability.
has a higher probability of rising in the second half of the year
Securities Times ·Databao statistics, based on the monthly increase and fall data analysis of the market index in the past 10 years, it was found that the probability of a single-month increase in July and December reached 60%, and the probability of rising in the whole year is relatively high.
Judging from the monthly increase and decrease data of Shenwan 31 industries in the past 10 years, in July, the rise probability of national defense and military industry, basic chemical industry, and non-ferrous metals ranked first. In the past 10 years, the average increase in in in July was 3.05%, 1.69% and 5.3% respectively.
Overall, from July to December, most of the sectors with the highest probability of rising are pro-cyclical sectors such as building materials, household appliances, chemicals, food and beverages. This has a certain relationship with the more holidays and shopping carnival weeks in the second half of the year. From October to December, due to the catalyzed by the National Day, Double Eleven, Double Twelve Shopping Festivals and Christmas, the average probability of rising food and beverage, household appliances, and pharmaceutical biological indexes ranked first.
51 brokerage institutions recommend a total of 356 gold stocks
data treasure statistics. 51 brokerage institutions in the market recommend a total of 356 gold stocks, distributed in 30 Shenwan first-level industries, with food and beverage, power equipment, and pharmaceutical and biological stocks gathered.
Judging from the number of recommended companies in stocks, 42 stocks were recommended by 3 or more brokerages. China Duty Free, Kweichow Moutai , Wuliangye were recommended by 17, 9 and 7 securities institutions respectively; Oriental Fortune , Luzhou Laojiao , Qingdao Beer , Poly Development and other stocks were recommended by more than 5 securities institutions. Judging from the performance of
, the stock prices of gold stocks recommended by 3 or more brokerages rose by an average of 20.06% in June, significantly outperforming the market. Among them, the stock prices of Changan Automobile , Tianci Materials, and Jianlang Hardware all rose by more than 50% in June. Since the beginning of this year, Binjiang Group , China Shenhua , and Shangji CNC have ranked among the top in the year, up 95.49%, 52.75% and 51.32% respectively.
9 shares were greatly increased by northbound funds
. The gold stocks recommended by institutions also received attention from foreign capital. More than half of the gold stocks recommended by 3 or more securities companies have been increased by northbound funds since July, of which 9 have increased their shareholding ratio by more than 0.1 percentage point.
Specifically, Air China received a higher increase in holdings from northbound funds, and the proportion of shares held in free-circulating shares increased by 1.03 percentage points from the end of June. Recently, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines announced that they had signed a purchase agreement with Airbus . purchased A320NEO series aircraft from it: 96, 100, and 96 respectively, and the total purchase amount will reach US$37.257 billion (approximately RMB 249.6 billion).
In addition, the shareholding ratio of northbound funds of Jianlang hardware, Xinbao shares , and Hang Seng Electronics have changed. It is worth noting that the latest number of shareholders in Xinbao Co., Ltd. is 25,000, which is the fifth consecutive period of decline in the number of shareholders in the company, with a cumulative decline of 19.66%, and the bargaining chips are showing a continuous concentrated trend.
Statement: All information content of Databao does not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky, so be cautious when investing.
Editor in charge: Xie Yilan
Databao
Databao (shujubao2015): Securities Times Intelligent Original Innovation Media.
