▲Bloomberg related reports
Recently, the United States' hegemony suffered a serious blow in front of oil. Bloomberg quoted the latest news of the OPEC+ 33rd ministerial meeting. Representatives of relevant member states reached an agreement to reduce crude oil production by 2 million barrels per day. As soon as the news came out, it was a bolt from the blue for the already worried Biden administration. CNN even quoted unknown officials, claimed that White House was in "spasm and panic" .
1. The American daydream is completely bankrupt
1. The dream of destroying the Russian economy is broken
. Faced with global oil production cuts, Russia has ushered in new vitality behind the panic of the United States. Recently, two natural gas pipelines, " Beixi-1" and " Beixi-2", exploded one after another. According to Pavel Zavalny, chairman of the Russian State Duma Energy Commission and chairman of the Russian Natural Gas Association, in an interview, although pipeline repair can be repaired through the production of caisson and lifting the pipeline, it will take a long time. is conservatively estimated to take half a year to a year, and there is no rapid maintenance plan for .
▲The "North Stream" pipeline leak site
. This conservative maintenance is the most optimistic assessment of the "North Stream" pipeline. According to the preliminary investigation report submitted by Denmark and Sweden to UN Security Council , the explosion was caused by an underwater explosion equivalent to hundreds of kilograms of explosives. The conclusion is that has evidence that the explosion deliberately triggered . Although it was not mentioned in the report of the explosion planner, all stakeholders knew that the incident was planned and implemented by the United States, and the purpose was very straightforward. The first thing was to take the opportunity to obtain economic benefits. After the
explosion, European countries can no longer obtain the natural gas provided by Russia through these two pipelines. Given the arrival of the cold winter, they can only increase the overseas purchase volume, which provides an opportunity for the United States to further increase the price of natural gas for sale and make profits from it. However, obtaining economic benefits can be considered an open conspiracy, while the economic restrictions on Russia behind it are a complete conspiracy. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States has manipulated the West to launch crazy economic sanctions on Russia, trying to drag down the Russian economy and thus destroy the entire country. However, after more than half a year of sanctions, the United States has to admit that it has not met expectations. As for the reasons behind it, it may be related to the rising energy prices.
▲Russian fossil fuel export estimated revenue
Although Russian energy exports to the West have decreased on the surface, by transiting third parties, the foreign exchange earned by Russian energy sales increased instead of decline. According to statistics released by the Energy and Clean Air Research Center in September, Russia has obtained 158 billion euros through fossil fuels from February to August, and its military expenditure to Ukraine was 100 billion euros during the same period, which basically achieved a balance of revenue and expenditure, which caused the despicable move of the United States to bomb the pipeline. But if you can blow up the pipeline, I can increase the price. Even if the "North Stream" can no longer supply gas this winter, Russia's natural gas revenue will also decrease. However, as OPEC+ reaches a production cut agreement, global oil prices will rise again.
According to the latest estimate given by the Russian Ministry of Finance, , in view of the rising oil prices, an additional 305.6 billion rubles will be added in October alone, about 5.06 billion US dollars of , which allows Russia's foreign exchange income to continue to maintain a stable balance. As for the United States' attempt to use limited Russia's energy output, reduce foreign exchange income, and quickly destroy the Russian economy, the Biden administration is really dumb and cannot say even if there is any pain.
2. The idea of stabilizing the country's economy failed
▲CPI changes in the United States
Although the current inflation upward trend in the United States has declined in recent times, this does not mean that the economy has escaped from the predicament. This short-term decline is actually related to Fed multiple times interest rate hikes led to the strong US dollar. However, although this economic strategy can be effective in the short term, in the long run, it is difficult to ensure that the United States will not have a financial crisis again. For this reason, will be more cautious about economic means such as interest rate hikes in the next period of time.
The impact of oil on the US economy is more than that. Combined with the Statistics Society, global oil prices have doubled in total since 1970-2020, and the US economy has experienced recession without exception. Theoretically, due to the surge in oil prices, demand will inevitably be suppressed. At the same time, due to uncertainty about economic expectations, both consumption and investment will be more cautious. In the case of high inflation, a series of monetary tightening policies such as interest rate hikes adopted by the Federal Reserve will once again promote the economic contraction. If this continues, an economic recession will inevitably be inevitable, but if the recession is relatively flat, it will be good news for the United States. If it is a rapid recession, the economic crisis will surely repeat itself again.
▲The ratio of the US dollar in the global foreign exchange reserves
2008 The negative impact of the US financial crisis on the world has not been completely eliminated. The crisis is about to appear again after ten years. The interval is so short and happening so frequently, and the dominance of the US dollar has been greatly shaken. Since entered 2022, many countries around the world have begun to de-dollarize , which is a very negative signal for the US dollar. If Biden completely loses control of this economic situation, it will be like pushing it to dominoes to accelerate the de-dollarization of more countries. By then, after , the US dollar will lose its currency overlord, the U.S. influence will also degrade .
It can be seen that the current Biden administration is extremely sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. After all, this is one of the few life-saving straws to stabilize its economy. It is understood that due to the possible sharp drop in oil prices due to increased oil production or stable production, it is reported that the White House has made a commitment to OPEC+ , emphasizing that if OPEC + does not decide to reduce production for the time being, the United States will repurchase as much as 200 million barrels of oil to supplement its strategic oil reserves . But in the face of this promise, OPEC+ resolutely took the reverse operation, and Biden's idea of trying to stabilize his country's economy was basically disappointed.
3. The attempt to save the midterm election is ruined
▲The midterm election is about to start
Is Biden stabilizing the economy for the United States and for the American people? It is certain that there may be some considerations, but in addition to this, Biden attaches more importance to his own interests and the interests of the Democratic Party he lives in. stabilizes oil prices and ensures relative stability of the economy, and more in an attempt to maintain the upcoming midterm elections . But now, the probability of such an attempt being ruined is extremely high.
There are less than five weeks left for the midterm elections on November 8. Five weeks later, the Democrats and Republican will decide their lives and deaths. At that time, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate will be re-elected, and 36 states will also hold gubernatorial elections. It can be said that the midterm election is not only related to the two parties' competition for local votes in the 2024 election, but also to control the US Congress. However, judging from the election forecasts of all parties, the Democrats are not optimistic.
▲Psaki bluntly stated the Democratic Party crisis
0 At the end of September, former US White House spokesperson Psaki bluntly stated in an interview with NBC that "The Democratic Party does not have any advantage in the US economic issues and is very vulnerable to attacks. If this election is a referendum against Biden, then the Democrats will be doomed to fail" . It can be said that Biden's previous messy operations in the economic field have already given the Republican Party the initiative. Now, with the failure of the United States' pressure on OPEC+ and global oil prices will usher in a new round of highs, the situation will be even more unfavorable to Democrats.
. Once the midterm election fails, all Biden's policy policies are likely to be obstructed by Republicans in the remaining two years. Not to mention what he can do, it is a blessing for Biden to be able to leave office smoothly. According to the latest poll released by Reuters and Ipsos, Biden's support rate continued to decline after a brief increase, and has now dropped to 40%, close to the previous lowest level. It can be seen that the American people are not satisfied with Biden's governance. As for the 2024 presidential election, there should be no extravagant expectations, and this negative impact will also affect the entire Democratic Party. At a critical period of the US midterm elections, OPEC+'s decision made a solid blow to the Democrats.
2. The decline of the United States has become an indisputable fact
▲Biden Middle East has found oil?
In order to prevent OPEC+ from reducing production, the United States has also put in a hard work. In addition to the promise to purchase 200 million barrels of oil mentioned above, it also sent a luxury delegation to lobby. Citing CNN, has communicated and contacted many times in the past month. In addition to the US global energy security adviser and energy envoy Amos Hochstein, coordinator of North Africa and former presidential envoy Bret McGerk visited Saudi for communication and contact on energy issues. US Treasury Secretary Yellen has also been asked to personally explain the situation to the Treasury Secretary of some Gulf countries. And don’t forget that in mid-July, Biden just finished his trip to the Middle East, including a two-day “fuel-finding” trip in Saudi Arabia. But the result of hard work is ashamed.
In fact, as early as early September, the finance ministers of G7 jointly issued a statement claiming that they had agreed to implement price caps on Russian oil and oil products. According to this requirement, the relevant product price will only be allowed to be transported and sold when it is equal to or lower than the preset price. This statement is no different from forced buying and selling. Although it appears to be coming to Russia, once the plan is implemented, all oil exporters around the world will face "robbery" in the future. It is precisely because of the recognition of this potential crisis that OPEC+ directly speaks with actions and uses production cuts to fight against the hegemony of the US. This kind of hard work is not common in the past.
OPEC+ A meeting made Biden's previous efforts burn. No wonder there was a statement of "spasm and panic". The failure of this effort also indirectly reflects the United States' hegemonic thinking and the practice of issuing orders are difficult to work in today's globalization, and the essence behind it is the decline of the United States. Today, OPEC will dare to fight the United States. Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, more "OPEC" will sprout like mushrooms after a rain. By then, the whole world will witness the decline of an empire and a hegemony, and send two words "blessings" - deserve it.
