ING: The US dollar is expected to rise 5% again by the end of the year under three conditions
Netherlands ING Investment Bank expects that the appreciation trend of the US dollar is expected to continue until the end of this year.
Netherlands ING Investment Bank expects that the appreciation trend of the US dollar is expected to continue until the end of this year. Not only can it maintain the current increase, but it is also not ruled out that it will appreciate further by 5%. The team of analysts at
ING released a research report, pointing out that the US dollar has three major support.
1, the hawks in the Fed will raise interest rates to fight inflation, and seem to be willing to raise the policy interest rate to a level around 4%.
2, the relative autonomy of US energy. By contrast, Europe has suffered a lot this year because it relies deeply on Russia to supply natural gas , and its economic outlook has bleaked, causing the exchange rate of the euro and pound to fall continuously.
3, the US dollar is obviously the second most secure safe haven currency at the moment.
Some people believe that the US dollar has risen too strong recently, which may have spawned some kind of square agreement similar to that of 1985 internationally, when the G5 countries (US, West Germany, , UK, France and Japan) agreements to reverse the strength of the US dollar by using joint intervention in the foreign exchange market. But ING pointed out that the prerequisite for such a deal to work is that Fed's monetary policy must shift from current tightening to easing, but it seems extremely unlikely to make such a major policy turn this year.
USD Index (DXY) climbed 0.1% intraday on the 6th to 109.652. The USD Index hit the 110
DXY USD Index rose above the 110 mark on the 5th, setting a new 20-year high, while the exchange rate of the euro and pound continued to bottom out of . Russia's suspension of natural gas supply to Germany has led to higher doubts about global economic growth and energy prices, and the flow of funds to the US dollar, making the US dollar stronger and stand out in the foreign exchange market.
DXY US dollar index rose 0.7% to 110.271 at the highest. The euro exchange rate depreciated by 0.76% to 0.9878 euros against 1 US dollar in the afternoon of the Asian session on the 5th, the first time it has fallen below 0.99 euros since December 2002; the pound exchange rate also depreciated by 0.6% to 1.1444 US dollars against 1 US dollar during the session, writing the lowest price in 37 years. Russia announced that it would close Nord Stream 1, the main natural gas pipeline leading to Germany indefinitely, and the energy shortage in Europe is even more urgent.
TwentyFour Asset Management Fund Manager Xue Neng said: Europe's outlook is not good, it began to fluctuate last week, and it is almost certain that the future will get worse.
In terms of interest rate hikes, European Central Bank has just begun to catch up with the FCC, but if Europe falls into a long-term recession, I believe this will slow down the pace of central bank hikes interest rates.
Since Russia's army in Ukraine caused the price of commodities to soar and affect Russia-Europe relations, the energy crisis in Europe has continued to deepen, which is also the main factor in the euro-dollar exchange rate falling to parity for the first time since 2002 last month. High inflation has put the European Central Bank under pressure to tighten monetary policy, and new problems with energy supply before winter will inevitably further drag down the eurozone economy.
As for the weakening of the pound, in addition to reflecting the general strengthening of the US dollar, households are also unable to pay their bills due to energy shortages. Dauting, investment director of BlueBay Asset Management, described the current challenge facing the UK economy, the scale of its current challenges may be the first to see in life.
Asian currencies are the weakest in the Korean won, depreciating by 0.7% yesterday to 1,371.9 won against 1 USD.
is the low point since April 2009. South Korea seeks to use foreign exchange reserves to prevent the depreciation of exchange rate . Data released by the Bank of South Korea on the 5th showed that South Korea's foreign exchange reserve deposits in August decreased by US$2.18 billion compared with the previous month, becoming US$436.43 billion, which is 26.7 billion less than in December last year, and is suspected to be used to depreciate the Korean won's exchange rate. yen fell to 140.66 yen intraday yesterday, with a slightly slower declining trend, and fell to 140.8 yen last Friday, a 24-year low.
Other emerging currencies, South African Rand continued its decline last Friday, declining to a two-year low on the 5th, declining 0.29% against the US dollar in the early Asian session, at 1 US dollar against the 17.35 Rand.
