Due to the joint effects of the Ukrainian crisis, the shadow of the further deterioration of the energy crisis is covering Europe, and the government and the people are uneasy.
German Vice Premier and Minister of Economic and Climate Protection Habek has visited Qatar and Norwegian in recent days, "looking for gas" everywhere, but no solution to replace Russian Natural gas has been found so far. Germany is facing the "painful reality" that Russia will not restore gas supply.
After the surge in electricity and natural gas prices, firewood in the German market was sold out, and some residents began to collect branches, as if they had returned to the era of burning wood for heating overnight.
UK is also in a mess. This winter, primary and secondary schools in the UK will lower the heating temperature and students must wear a few more sweaters. Some British people began to stock up on charcoal to keep warm in winter. The mayor of London lamented that Britain is afraid it will experience a "national disaster".
Just as Europe was in a state of confusion, Ukraine launched a counterattack.
In fact, Ukraine has been promoting a "big counterattack" many times since May. In July, Ukrainian Defense Minister Leznikov also made a "olong incident". He just said that " Ukrainian President has ordered the army to formulate a combat plan to retake the southern region", and urgently ignited his own rumors, claiming that "the English is not good, and there is no counterattack, it is all a misunderstanding."
This made the American media so anxious that they wrote an article "increasing". " Washington Post " said that the United States spent "billions of dollars" of military aid, but did not see the actions of the frontline of Khlsong; "Politician News Network" twice issued a question on "where is Ukraine's counterattack."
After receiving multiple rounds of US military aid "blood transfusion", on August 29 local time, the Southern Theater Command of Ukraine officially announced a counterattack in the Khlsong area in southern Ukraine, and stated that it had broken through the first line of defense of the Russian army.
Zelensky also made a harsh statement: If the Russian army wants to survive, run away quickly.
At the same time, Russian media interviewed local officials and received a reply that the counterattack was real and the effect was not.
Russian Ministry of Defense spokesman Konashenkov said that the Ukrainian army tried to launch an attack in the south, losing more than 1,200 soldiers within a day and night.
29, Ukraine, municipal service personnel walked through the house destroyed after the attack on missile . Source: Visual China
A "frustrated counterattack" and a "breakthrough of the defense line". For a moment, true and false are difficult to distinguish between true and false. But Chang'an Street Governor found that at present there are at least three aspects that are certain:
first, Ukraine's counterattack began, but progress was slow.
Khlsong region is the only Ukrainian capital occupied by the Russian army. The reason why Ukraine chose to start a counterattack here is because if the victory is successful, it will have strong symbolic significance. It can not only boost morale, but also prove to the West that "sponsorship" is not given in vain.
Russia and Ukraine are in a strong sense of fighting, and they both have the potential to do so. The Ukrainian army continued to use the tactics of front-line artillery suppression and rear guerrilla.
A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Southern Operations Command said on the 30th that under the continuous and precise strikes of the Ukrainian armed forces on targets such as bridges, the heavy equipment of the Russian army is now unable to pass through the main transportation road of the Dnieper River. The Russian army continued to try to build pontoon bridges and other methods, but it was still under Ukrainian firepower.
In Zaporijiya, Ukraine, a group of "guerrillas" sneaked into the dark alley to install explosives to identify Russian targets for Ukrainian artillery strikes. At the same time, they are also responsible for blowing up the railway and assassinating Russian officials.
Russian army is not to be outdone. Russian Ministry of Defense spokesman Konashenkov reported on the 30th that the Russian army successfully collapsed the Ukrainian offensive on the Nikolaev Krivoyrog line and in several other directions in the past 24 hours. Russian air defense system also shot down two Su-25 fighters and five drones on Ukraine.
battlefield data map. Source: Russian Satellite News Agency
Although progress is slow, Ukraine's counterattack will not end in the short term.
Marcos, professor of political economy at São Paulo State University in Brazil, said the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will not end before the U.S. midterm elections because the Biden administration is facing a series of structural problems including inflation . As long as the war is still there, all the failures in governance can be attributed to the excuse of external conflict.
As former US Senator Richard Black said: "We don't care how many Ukrainians die, how many women, children, civilians, and soldiers will die. It's like a wonderful football game, we want to win."
Second, this war of attrition is about who can last longer. The United States and the West do not have the hope of Ukraine winning at all.
While Ukraine is promoting the "counterattack results" , the New York Times quoted sources as saying that the US Department of Defense admitted that Ukraine's military potential is not enough to achieve "significant success" in the southern direction , and Pentagon is still cautious about Ukraine's current military capabilities .
Retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis also said on Fox News, "Ukraine will not gain the upper hand in the conflict, which is clear."
The US VOX News Network even directly concluded that no matter how the Ukrainians try, they are likely to not succeed. "Observation is usually more difficult than defense. The military rule of thumb is that an attacker needs a 3:1 army advantage to have a chance of success, and also needs joint troops to fight. Ukraine does not have such advantages and capabilities."
The US Capitol Hill newspaper issued a message on the 29th to remind Zelensky that if Ukraine wants to survive, the battle must end. The only reasonable approach is to conduct a ceasefire negotiation.
Russian media: The People's Republic of Donetsk was liberated within one month. Source: Russian Satellite News Agency
In this war of attrition, who can persist for longer may be the most important thing.
For Ukraine, whether the West will continue to support and how long it will last is the biggest question mark.
As the American magazine National Interest, if the energy crisis in Europe cannot be resolved for a long time, it may be elected to be the next government that is "pro-Russia". Without the full support of Europe, the United States will also "experience difficulties" in aid to Ukraine; on the contrary, if the US aid to Ukraine drops sharply or ends, it is even more doubtful whether Europe can independently support the Ukraine battle.
At present, Ukraine may be able to fight some counterattacks in the local area, but it is difficult to achieve a strategic counterattack. Russia also has difficulty continuing to expand its occupation. Even if they sit at the negotiating table in the future, neither side will be able to get everything it originally wanted.
3. The United States and the West have been preparing for Ukraine's failure since the beginning of the war, but they just dare not think about it.
The Washington Post reported in March that Western countries' plans to support Ukraine's resistance have been formed, but they have been reluctant to discuss the details of the plans, because the premise of these plans is that Russia has achieved military victory, and the first step of the plan is how to support Ukraine's "government in exile."
Ukraine has survived 188 days with the assistance of the West, and Zelensky's account book is getting thicker and thicker.
htmlOn the 130th, Zelensky said in a speech to the "French Enterprise Movement" (MEDEF) that it would take about 600 billion to 800 billion US dollars to restore everything.
He also pointed out that it is difficult to say the exact amount at the moment, because the military operation has not yet ended and it is not clear how much it will cost.
But you need money as early as possible. Last month, Ukraine held an "International Conference on Reconstruction" on Switzerland . Ukrainian Prime Minister Smegal claimed at the meeting that if Ukraine returns to its previous level, Western countries will need to spend at least $750 billion. This is approximately equal to the US military spending for the whole year of 2021.
In order to impress Western countries, Ukraine also raised the "bank of democracy", emphasizing that reconstruction of Ukraine is not a regional or national project, but a collective project of a "democratic world".
For this reason, he clearly listed the timetable for Western countries to provide "reconstruction funds": the first batch of funds are humanitarian projects, used to maintain basic order; the second batch of funds should be in place within three years to ensure education and medical care; all funds are available within ten years, and Ukraine should become a "green and modern" country.
Shmegal also carefully drew the "responsibility map" and arranged the Western countries clearly: Austria needs to be responsible for rebuilding the Zaporozhe region; the United States and Turkey are responsible for rebuilding the Kharkov ; Chernigov is independently responsible for Germany; Canada and Ireland can't escape...
Western countries help to rebuild Ukraine's "responsibility map". Source: EU Dynamics (EurActiv)
However, only the UK and EU responded, and other countries remained silent. But the support from the UK and Europe is conditional. Ukraine not only needs to ensure transparency in the use of funds, but also strive to fight corruption with all its might, and the standards are not in the hands of Ukraine.
As for whether the United States will pay for Ukraine, ask Afghanistan and you will know the answer.
