US media said that on February 4, local time, the country's Supreme Court confirmed the death sentence of an Iranian man who acted as a spy for US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). State media said he shared details of Iran's nuclear program with the US intelligence agency.
According to the Associated Press on February 4, Iranian judicial organ spokesman Wu Ram Hussein Ismaili said the spy is named Amir Rahinpur and he will be executed soon. Ismaili did not elaborate on what Rahinpur was accused of doing or his age and background.
However, a report by the Islamic Republic of Iran reported that Rahimpur received compensation from the CIA to share details of Iran's nuclear program with the agency. The report said: "He kept in touch with the intelligence agency and tried to provide this US agency with some intelligence about Iran's nuclear program, making a lot of money."
So, what level of Iran's nuclear capabilities are at? Iran has the ability to create nuclear weapon ?
article | Li Baolin Editor of "International Relations Research" of the Institute of International Social Sciences of Shanghai Institute of Social Sciences
Editor | Pu Haiyan Outlook Think Tank
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1 It is difficult to have nuclear tests that will not be discovered.
Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard General Soleimani died in Iraq attack, Iran fired more than a dozen missiles at several U.S. military bases in Iraq in retaliation.
Soon after, two shallow earthquakes of more than 4 o'clock occurred in Iran, and the center of the first 4.9-magnitude earthquake was about 64 kilometers away from the Iran Busher Nuclear Power Plant. Reminding Iran's vow of revenge after Soleimani was attacked and killed, these two earthquakes aroused more associations from the international community.
Iran's nuclear intentions and specific behaviors have always been highly concerned by the international community. Iran's attitude of not developing nuclear weapons has also been suspected by the United States and Israel. Judging from the experiences that have been suffered and the pressures that are being under, Iran seems to have enough reason to develop nuclear weapons.
During the Iran-Iran War, Iran was attacked by biological and chemical weapons, with heavy casualties. It is rumored that this is also the main reason why Iran restarted its nuclear program that has been stagnant since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1984. Iran's national security has always been threatened by the United States, the most powerful country in the world, and its old enemy Israel is a country with de facto nuclear weapons.
(On September 22, 2014, Iran held a military parade to commemorate the 34th anniversary of the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War and display a variety of new weapons and equipment during the military parade.)
Iran's nuclear activities also have many suspicious points. Iran has secretly carried out activities related to nuclear weapons, such as uranium enrichment and conversion experiments, plutonium separation experiments, importing various uranium mixtures, and obtaining information and documents related to the development of nuclear weapons from underground channels. These activities are the main contents that the International Atomic Energy Agency has tried to verify since 2003, and are also the main areas of the struggle between Iran and the United States.
A report released by the U.S. intelligence agency in 2007 that assesses Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities believed that Iran had been working hard to develop nuclear weapons until the fall of 2003. In 2011, the International Atomic Energy Agency also hinted in its report that for the first time Iran had engaged in activities involving nuclear weapons research and development. Israeli Prime Minister in 2018 Netanyahu persuaded Trump to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement. Iran once had a secret nuclear plan.
However, the earthquake this time is likely to be a natural phenomenon rather than a nuclear-related activity. Earthquakes are only one of the many manifestations of nuclear tests, as well as other manifestations such as water sound around the experimental site and the concentration of radioactive nuclear elements. Since the signing of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1995, an international monitoring system for these performances has also been established, so it is difficult to have nuclear tests that will not be discovered.
And, compared with the North Korean that once developed nuclear weapons through secret ways and achieved success, Iran is a relatively open country, which makes it difficult for it to implement its secret nuclear program. What triggered the Iranian nuclear issue in 2002 was the disclosure of its opposition National Resistance Commission's disclosure of Iran's secret nuclear activities; in 2007, an Iranian nuclear scientist was poisoned to death, and then several scientists were assassinated; in 2010, the Bushel nuclear power plant, which Iran planned to load fuel and generate electricity, was damaged by computer viruses. These incidents all illustrate to some extent the difficulty of Iran in implementing a secret nuclear program.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has conducted verification of Iran's nuclear facilities in 2003, especially since the signing of the Iranian comprehensive nuclear agreement in 2015, the agency's comprehensive verification and Iran's implementation of the agreement have also greatly reduced the possibility of Iran's secret development of nuclear weapons. Of course, it should be clear that the nuclear weapons program is highly confidential to the country, and the outside world can only infer through the exposed information.
2 How far is Iran's technical capabilities from nuclear weapons?
If the United States and other countries’ arguments are true, that is, Iran has plans to develop nuclear weapons, then from the public information, how far is the technical capabilities Iran has from developing nuclear weapons?
fissile material is the basis for manufacturing nuclear weapons and is also the most difficult substance to obtain. These materials can be obtained by establishing a nuclear fuel circulation system, and the number and advancedness of the centrifuge are at its core.
Iran's nuclear infrastructure mainly includes uranium enrichment facilities in Natanz and Fordo, the Arak heavy water factory, and the Busher nuclear reactor, with about 19,000 centrifuges. In 2010, Iran announced that the experimental fuel enrichment facility in Natanz had produced enriched uranium with a concentration of 20%. This is the highest concentration of nuclear material that Iran has so far. According to the latest report of the US Congressional Research Service Center on the current status of Iran's nuclear program in 2019, as of January 2014, if the low-concentration uranium 235 with a concentration of 5%, it will theoretically be able to produce the high-concentration uranium 235 required to make 8 nuclear weapons; if the low-concentration uranium 235 uranium 235 uranium 20% with a concentration of uranium hexafluoride and further enrich, it will be enough to produce a nuclear weapon.
(On April 9, 2019, Iranian President Rouhani watched the nuclear facility at Tehran .)
However, the comprehensive Iran nuclear agreement signed by Iran with the United States and other six countries in 2015 restricted Iran's centrifuges, enriched uranium quantity and abundance. The number of centrifuges in Iran will be reduced to 5,060, and it cannot be replaced with higher-level centrifuges within 10 years; the abundance of enriched uranium that Iran has in the next 15 years shall not exceed 3.67%, and the total amount shall not exceed 300 kilograms. The agreement almost eliminates the possibility that Iran will obtain the required materials through formal channels to develop nuclear weapons by 2031.
If this agreement fails midway, most judgments are that at the current level, it will take one year for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, which is consistent with the judgment made by the United States. 2013, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said at a Senate hearing that if the Iranian government made a decision to create nuclear weapons, it would take them a year. In 2018, the U.S. Department of Defense released a nuclear situation assessment report that Iran also believes that it has the technical ability to develop nuclear weapons and has the ability to obtain the weapon within one year of making a decision to develop nuclear weapons.
However, there are different opinions. The latest 2019 report of the US Congress Research Service Center believes that although Iran has enough enriched uranium, it has not yet obtained all the technology and materials to make nuclear weapons.
3 Abolishing the agreement is not in line with Iran's interests
After Soleimani was killed, Iran announced that it would suspend the implementation of the last limit of the Iran nuclear agreement, namely the limit on the number of centrifuges.
This is not the first time Iran has proposed to suspend the performance of its obligations related to the agreement.
In response to the unilateral tearing down the Iran nuclear comprehensive agreement in the United States, Iran has repeatedly proposed to suspend the implementation of some clauses of the Iran nuclear comprehensive agreement since May 2019, breaking through some restrictions on Iran by the agreement, such as restrictions on enriched uranium and heavy water reserves, uranium enrichment abundance restrictions, emerging centrifuge research and development restrictions, and injection of uranium gas into more than 1,000 centrifuges.
In fact, the comprehensive Iran nuclear agreement is in the national interests of Iran. Although the agreement restricts Iran's nuclear activities, it reserves its right to use nuclear energy peacefully. Given the dual-use characteristics of nuclear technology , theoretically speaking, this right reserves an opportunity for Iran to develop nuclear weapons in the future. Moreover, Iran has exchanged the most current benefit it wants to get through the agreement, which is the lifting of sanctions imposed on Iran by the international community. After the signing of the
agreement, Iran actively fulfilled its agreement commitments. In 2017, the International Atomic Energy Agency's verification report stated that Iran fully fulfilled its treaty obligations, such as the total number of centrifuges and uranium enrichment abundance did not exceed the agreed upper limit, the stock of enriched uranium with a concentration of 3.67% was only 88.4 kilograms, and the inventory of heavy water at 110 tons did not exceed the upper limit of 130 tons. This shows Iran has a strong desire to maintain the agreement. Moreover, the reduction in fissile materials also means that Iran will have more time to develop nuclear weapons to obtain materials, which in turn weakens Iran's ability to bargain.
(International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Noya Amano visited Iran on July 29, 2017. Noya Amano said that Iran fulfilled its commitment to the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue. The first one in the picture above is Noya Amano and the first one in the right is Iranian President Rouhani)
Therefore, the abolition of the agreement is not in Iran's interests. Iran's suspension of implementation of the agreement is a struggle strategy, aiming to gain bargaining chips for future negotiations and put pressure on Western countries to gain economic benefits. This time, in order to retaliate against the US assassination of Soleimani, part of Iran's obligation to suspend the implementation of the agreement was emotional catharsis, and also to obtain bargaining chips.
tear up the agreement, restored comprehensive sanctions on Iran, determined that Iran had an attempt to develop nuclear weapons and clearly stated that it would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons - the strength of the Trump administration's government is undoubtedly revealed on the Iran nuclear issue.
Facing the United States, which is pressing step by step, Iran is passive on the issue of the comprehensive nuclear agreement. If Iran continues to suspend its performance of more treaty obligations, not only will the agreement be in name only, but Iran may also face stricter sanctions. If negotiations with the United States, even if the United States allows Iran to retain the right to use nuclear technology peacefully, the development of Iran's missiles is likely to be bound and Iran will be unacceptable. Therefore, there is a possibility that both parties to will negotiate on this issue, but it is more difficult to achieve results, and the greater possibility is to continue the status since 2018.
Judging from the conflict between the United States and Iraq caused by Soleimani's death and the way both sides handle the matter, both the United States and Iraq are trying to avoid large-scale head-on conflicts, which can be predicted that the struggle between the United States and Iraq over the Iran nuclear issue will also remain within a controllable range.
In fact, although the Iran nuclear issue is an issue that cannot be avoided in US-Iran relations, to a certain extent, this issue is just an episode in the tensions between the United States and Iran caused by Soleimani's death. The focus of the struggle between the two countries in the future is more likely to focus on the competition for the future order arrangements of the Middle East.
