text/Mu Duo
With polar bear "thumped" into the strategic trap set by the US imperialist empire, the superpower is currently "unprecedentedly confident". He pressed Russia into the quagmire of Ukraine with one hand, and reached into the Asia-Pacific with the other hand, and began to attack China. For example, on April 14, US National Security Advisor Sullivan openly stated that Washington will take "all possible measures" to ensure that the mainland will not "invade Taiwan". At that time, our Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian angrily criticized it, saying that "those who play with fire must burn themselves." In early May, the US State Department website quietly deleted the statements such as "Taiwan is part of China" and "The United States does not support 'Taiwan independence'".
China has denounced it as always. Zhao Lijian said that the US's attempt to "vague" and "empty" the one-China principle "will surely cause trouble." On May 23, US President Biden openly stated that if the mainland "reunites" Taiwan, the United States will "military intervention" to ensure Taiwan's security, and said that this is the United States' "commitment". This is the first time that the top US leader has broken the "strategic ambiguity" on the Taiwan issue, and it is a big gift to Japan, because Japan has repeatedly asked the United States to abandon the "strategic ambiguity" policy on Taiwan issues and clearly "assist in defense" Taiwan.
Before this, Japan has also publicly stated many times that "Taiwan's affairs are Japan's affairs." Now, with Biden's promise to "assist in defense" Taiwan, Taiwan's affairs have become "the United States and Japan's affairs", and Japan's armed intervention in Taiwan's maritime affairs is "more confident". Of course, it should be pointed out that after Biden made this statement, anonymous White House officials came out to "scrub the floor", saying that the United States' policy toward Taiwan has not changed, but in fact, the United States has indeed "emptyed" and "varnished" the one-China principle, and the "assistance to defend" Taiwan has basically been "breaked", and mainland China no longer has any illusions about this.
Against this background, according to the report of " Global Times " on May 28, the People's Liberation Army will conduct large-scale sea and air exercises in South China Sea from now on. Although it is in the South China Sea, it is actually not far from the Taiwan Strait, because according to Indian media reports, the exercise was held in the waters near Hainan, with an exercise area of about 100 square kilometers, and lasting from the 28th to June 1st. It is worth noting that on the eve of the South China Sea exercise, our Eastern Theater Command has held a three-week aircraft carrier take-off and landing drill in the eastern waters of Taiwan. According to Japanese media reports, "car-based fighter jets and helicopters take-off and landing have reached more than 300 times."
It is obvious that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is becoming increasingly complex and sensitive, and the mainland is also preparing to "get out of fire". so Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin will "order a song" for US President Biden on May 24, with the title of the song "My Motherland", and the lyrics sing "A friend comes and there is good wine. If the jackal comes, there will be a hunting gun to welcome it". The situation is so tense that it can be said that "a storm is coming and the wind is filling the building." Simply put, the United States and Japan are stepping up their collusion and preparing to work together to provoke trouble in the Taiwan Strait, first instigating "Taiwan independence" to force the mainland to take action, and then "invade China" under the name of "maintaining peace."
This is no joke, the Japanese people are much more sensitive than us. According to a report by Observer.com on 24, hundreds of Japanese people gathered in Tokyo to protest the US-Japan summit. The initiator of the rally, Toshiki Takayama said, "Now Japan is preparing to enter extraordinary action." "Japan and the United States are about to start another war to invade China" . Therefore, it is an indisputable fact that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is tense.
So will war really break out in the Taiwan Strait? We can't say one thing and say one thing, we can only talk about the facts and make sense. First of all, China does "don't want to fight". The two sides of the Taiwan Strait are a family, with more than 23 million Taiwanese compatriots opposite each other, and they are descendants of Yan and Huang. Once the fight starts, the deaths will be Chinese. If the two sides of the Taiwan Strait make enemies, it will be inevitable that the hostility of generations will be inevitable. Besides, China's current " main contradiction " is still developing. According to the plan, our current main work is to complete the "two centenary" goals. To put it bluntly, we still need to "strive for peace", take the "development dividends" and maintain "strategic determination".
Secondly, we must look at the current stage of development rationally. There is a saying that goes, "Those who travel a hundred miles apart are half ninety." What does it mean? Simply put, if the goal is to walk 100 miles, the last 10 miles is the most difficult to walk, the darkness before dawn, and only half of it has walked here. It is undeniable that in the decades of reform and opening up of , we have made great progress, but to be honest, the gap with the super country and the American empire is still relatively obvious. We cannot only compare GDP, but also military, political, geopolitical, geographical environment, resources, etc. In summary, the United States still has a very big advantage. It is not good for me to start a war at this time.
Third, the United States holds "two trump cards" and cannot be underestimated. One is the geopolitical ace. The war broke out around China. Once the cannon fired, capital rang out. The " Indo-Pacific Economic Framework " built by the United States immediately took action to "empty" China's industrial chain. There is no need to defeat China. Just like dealing with Russia, it is enough to endure China. The second is the nuclear weapons ace. The United States' nuclear weapons strength is still far beyond China. It has more than 55,000 nuclear bombs and only more than 300. The United States' nuclear submarines and strategic bombers are also stronger than China. The United States is not afraid of fighting with China's nuclear war with , because it has its own advantage, the possibility of mainland China's active nuclear war is almost zero.
So, is the crisis in the Taiwan Strait really going to turn into a war? Do you think war is a confrontation between planes and cannons? It has nothing to do with capital, it has nothing to do with information wars or public opinion wars? Western countries belong to "pirate civilization", China is "agricultural civilization", we are all thinking about "wife and children are warm-hearted", while Western countries, especially hegemonic countries like the United States, are all thinking about "turning you into mine", thinking about "calculating" how to restrict, or even dismember a certain country. In terms of thinking, we are at a disadvantage. The United States is so powerful. Who has ever seen the concept of "prosperity" in the United States?
says "beware of danger in times of peace", but as a result, I hypnotized myself. Looking at the people who have been in full swing recently, I already know that the fortress was broken from the inside, which is very terrifying. So, back to the Taiwan Strait issue, 1. The future conflict in the Taiwan Strait is a strategic trap that the United States dug for China. There is no doubt about , just like the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a strategic trap that the United States dug for Russia. So if we fight, we "fall into" the US conspiracy from the beginning. Can we fight in this situation? What is the probability of winning?
2. Who is China’s opponent? Is there only , Taiwan Army ? Of course not. must have Japanese armed forces, and even US military. If China does not fight smoothly, it may also face India's provocation and further encroachment in the west. " Strawberry Soldier " may indeed be "vulnerable", but after all, this is a cross-sea battle. After crossing the sea, it is another urban warfare. There are 2.6 million people in Taipei, Kaohsiung 1.4 million people, and Kiev is about the same population as Taipei and Kaohsiung. Putin sieges for a month and finally "withdrew". This is still a land war. The supply difficulty of cross-sea battle is much higher than that of land.
3. Can the current social form and economic development situation accept a protracted war and endure the economic development problems caused by this? Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, we must be prepared for a long-term war and we cannot bet on the "quick battle and quick decision". Putin also thought so. Everyone thought he would take Kiev in three days, but 100 days passed. Russia was deeply trapped in the quagmire of war. Recently, the age limit for recruitment has been lifted, which shows that "there is still a fight." Russia can afford it because it is vast and sparsely populated, and because it is rich in resources, we also need to import many things in addition to food, including oil and iron ore.
So overall, it is not good for us to take the initiative to fight the Taiwan Strait war. The United States and Japan are waiting for China to "take mistakes" and rush forward. China will definitely resolve the "Taiwan Strait crisis" in other ways and "avoid war" as much as possible. This is not only the conclusion drawn by our "logical reasoning", but in fact it has also been proven: Against the backdrop of the intensification of the Sino-US game and the deterioration of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, according to the message released by the National Development and Reform Commission of on May 27, "The Sino-US climate change consultation team held talks in Berlin ", "the two sides agreed to continue to promote the mechanism, concretization and pragmaticization of Sino-US climate change cooperation."
Some people may say, what is the relationship between the Sino-US climate meeting and the Taiwan Strait crisis? Thinking of like this, he doesn’t understand the “climate problem” too much.
We hold large-scale military exercises in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait to "draw the sword", and China-US hold "climate consultation meeting" in Berlin is negotiation. participants are all "experts" and "tatsense". They will not mention the Taiwan Strait or the Sino-US game, but everyone knows what the essence of the meeting is. China's strength, China's military exercises are to "add chips" to the "climate" negotiations, reduce the United States' asking price as much as possible, and "avoid war" as much as possible. Why not fight? It was said very clearly before. There is a saying that goes, "Every time you encounter major events, you will be calm." Don't be impulsive, "Impulsive is the devil."
(This article only represents the author's views and does not represent the sharp blade. It is only presented to the point of view, and it is of opinion. Welcome to communicate.)
