According to TrendForce, although the first quarter of 2022 is a traditional off-season, it is supported by the demand for deferred order shipments and commercial machine models. Laptop panel shipments have increased by 5.5% compared with the same period in 2021. However, the sudden outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict at the end of February has made the original inflation problem even worse. In the second quarter, due to the impact of epidemic control, ODMs assembly capacity declined, factory inventory rose, terminal demand was hit by the overall economic environment, and the rise in inventory amounts made the brand further reduce panel purchases. As the timing enters the third quarter, the market continues to suffer from weak terminal demand caused by high inflation and interest rate hikes, resulting in the inventory of whole machines at the channel end and the inventory of whole machines and panels in the channel. Affected by the active reduction of inventory of channels and brands, laptop panel orders are facing a significant downward revision. It is estimated that the third quarter of laptop panel shipments will drop by 13.4%, about 45.1 million pieces, even lower than the 49.9 million pieces in the same period before the epidemic in 2019.
TrendForce further stated that the shipment of laptop panels in July was 15.6 million, a year-on-year decrease of 34.8%, which was also lower than the 16.3 million before the epidemic in July 2019; while the monitor panels were shipped in July, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, which was also slightly lower than the 11.8 million in July 2019, indicating that this wave of customer inventory adjustments is quite drastically.
However, the monitor panel was supported by branded back order in the second quarter, and the epidemic control had little impact on the assembly capacity of the monitor, so the recession of terminal demand and inventory problems did not ferment until the third quarter. With the brand actively selling inventory, monitor panel shipments will decline sharply in the third quarter, with estimated shipments falling to 31.3 million pieces, a quarterly decrease of 27.7%, lower than the 36.7 million pieces in the same period before the epidemic.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, TrendForce believes that channels and brands are still actively locking in the hope of reducing the inventory of the entire machine and panel to a reasonable level by the end of this year. Therefore, the demand for IT panels in the fourth quarter will remain conservative. It is estimated that the shipment of laptop panels in the fourth quarter will be about 40.8 million pieces, an annual decrease of 45.6% and a quarterly decrease of 9.4%; the display panels will be about 29 million pieces, an annual decrease of 40.4% and a quarterly decrease of 7.2%.
