At this stage, pessimistic voices in the market account for the majority. At the three thousand points mark, after a long period of adjustment, we should not be overly pessimistic, but moderately optimistic.
At present, the adjustment of major indexes has reached its end, the valuations of major sectors are also at a low level, and the bottom signal has been clear.
After entering October, the market will usher in a turning point.
However, the market will not immediately enter a vigorous bull market.
The reason is that although the adjustment low has been seen, the comprehensive impact of various complex factors still takes time to digest, so it is difficult for the index to rise significantly in the near future.
If the index continues to rise from now on, the room for upward movement will be limited. Only by fully accumulating momentum in the bottom stage and dissipating by negative factors can one enter a real bull market.
Specifically, from October to mid-next year, market will show a trend of bottom range fluctuations.
In the fourth quarter of this year, the index is already at the bottom area, with limited risks, but there will only be one medium-term wave market. Overall, it is a period of rest and recuperation.
conservatively estimates that the high point is about the Shanghai Composite Index 3400 point line. Even if it is a little stronger, it will only reach 3610 points or 3700 points.
Therefore, you must pay attention to controlling the rhythm within half a year, and you cannot trade frequently in the short term, and you cannot hold shares for too long.
There may be a temporary high in the fourth quarter from the end of November to mid-December.
can also be said to be a slow bull market from the fourth quarter of this year to the middle of next year, and the volatility will be relatively significant.
Before mid-next year, it will be a process of accumulating strength. However, at this stage, some high-quality stocks have already entered a bull market first. Therefore, from now on, stock selection is very important.
Time is coming to mid-2023. It is expected that the economy has recovered, the impact of the epidemic has become a thing of the past, the US rate hike cycle ends, and the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war has been eliminated. Only when these situations are effectively improved can the stock market launch a strong market.
By then, the strength of the market may exceed the expectations of most people in the market, and it will be a real bull market.
Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 5,000 points again within two years, and is even expected to hit a record high of up to 7,000 points.
Many people mistakenly think that it is a bear market now, because the Shanghai Composite Index has been fluctuating around 3000 points.
Due to the severe distortion of the Shanghai Composite Index, the judgment of the medium- and long-term trend seems extremely inaccurate. Judging from the trends over the years, it is more accurate to judge based on the Shenzhen Component 100 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index .
is obvious. Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100, Shanghai Stock Exchange 3000, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and ChiNext Index have all gone out of the bull market since 2019.
is calculated at the 2021 high, the ChiNext Index rose by 202%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100 rose by 184%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 rose by 102%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose by 83%.
Among them, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100 and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index both exceeded the 2007 high in February 2021 and hit a record high, and the ChiNext index is only 13% away from the historical high. Judging from the trends of these major indexes, it is obvious that the stock market is a bull market from 2019 to 2021.
Therefore, to judge the long-term trend of the stock market, we must comprehensively analyze major indexes, especially pay attention to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indexes.
There are two wave-like divisions regarding the long-term trend of the index.
The first wave-type division takes early 2019 as the starting point of this bull market.
This bull market, which started in 2019, will last for a total of 5-6 years, and will continue until 2026, with a high of 7300-7500 points in the Shanghai Composite Index. The bull market has been half completed so far, namely the first wave of rise and the second wave of adjustment.
Big one wave: January 2019-February 2021, 2440-3731 points
Big two wave: February 2021-October 2022, 3731-2863 points
Big three wave: October 2022-First half of 2024, 2863-5200 points
Big four wave: First half of 2024-2025, 5200-3700 points
Big five wave: 2025-Mid-2026, 3700-7500 points
This wave type division is more suitable for analyzing the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index.
The second wave type division takes 2013 as the starting point of this bull market and ends around 2025. Its final high is also around 7300-7500 points in the Shanghai Composite Index.This wave-type division is based on the trends of the Shenzhen Component 100 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indexes.
Big one wave rises: June 2013-June 2015
Big two wave adjustment: June 2015-January 2019
Big three wave rises: January 2019-February 2021
Big four wave adjustment: February 2021-October 2022
Big five wave rises: October 2022-end 2024 or the first half of 2025
Among them, the first four wave adjustment in October this year finally ended for more than one and a half years, and began to enter the big five wave upward stage.
The big five waves began in October.
is divided according to this wave type, and the rise of the big five waves may lead to an extended wave, that is, the increase is greater than that of the big three waves.
No matter what wave type classification is, it will be the starting point for a new round of bull market growth starting from October 2022.
As for the market wave from the end of April to the beginning of July 2022, it can be regarded as a rebound in wave B; at the beginning of July 3424 points to the end of September 3021 points are adjustments to the C wave.
Starting from October this year, it will be the first wave upward stage of the third wave or the fifth wave. The target of
1 wave must reach at least above 3700 points. The fourth quarter of this year is the first phase of completing the 1 wave, which is the area around 3400 points mentioned above.
The middle of next year will be the 3-wave main upward wave stage of the big third wave or big fifth wave. At this time, the index will usher in a relatively smooth and sustained upward trend.
It should be noted that in the new bull market that began in the fourth quarter, the main market line will no longer be new energy, liquor and other track stocks, and most of the blue horse stocks will also have far less than the bull market from 2019 to 2021.
The new market will inevitably give birth to a new main line, and the new main line must come from the sectors that are ignored by the market at the bottom.
The stock market has reached the starting point of a new bull market. Friends should seize the rare opportunity to lay out the bottom.
