10 March 11, International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest " World Economic Outlook Report ", lowering the economic growth expectations for 2023 to 2.7% , and believes that inflation will last longer than expected, while one-third of the world's economies will fall into recession.
Under the influence of multiple factors, the current global economy is facing challenges such as inflation rate reaching a historical high, economic development space shrinking, and the intensification of energy crisis, which seriously affects the development prospects of the world economy. Against this background, the pace of hiring rate hiring in European and American countries has accelerated, and the direction of the global capital market has also attracted people's attention.
Global capital market is affected by the strong US dollar and is turbulent.
Since the beginning of this year, due to frequent record highs of inflation, The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times in 6 years, and the cumulative interest rate raised has reached 300 basis points. Moreover, many outsiders believe that inflation in the United States will not fall back soon, so the possibility of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates significantly or even exceeding expectations in the future is still very high.
Affected by the Federal Reserve's move, the US dollar strengthened, and the global non-US currencies encountered a "restless decline". As of the end of September this year, the pound fell by 17.5%, and the yen reached 20.2%. Not only that, the strong dollar has also brought great turmoil to the global capital market.
(Source: Zitu.com)
Take Japan as an example only. As the world's second largest sovereign debt market, the signs of "depletion" of the Japanese bond market are constantly intensifying. 10 March 11 reported that since Japan's 1010-year treasury bond 1999html has become the benchmark treasury bond for the first time, it has seen a rare phenomenon of "zero transactions" for three consecutive trading days.
Of course, in the context of the increasingly tight global economy, it is not just Japan that is facing the problem of "capital retreat". However, globally, China's capital market is "a prosperous scene."
RMB performed well, and China became a "safe haven" of the world's capital
In the first half of this year, the overall performance of China's stock and bond markets was relatively stable. Overall, China's capital flow has reached a relatively balanced trend in this adjustment of the global capital market. At the same time, compared with other non-US currencies, the performance of the RMB is also more stable.
Therefore, in the global capital market, China appears to be more stable and full of vitality and "hope". Many overseas asset management giants have seen China's strong market space, and investors are unwilling to miss such a "excellent" investment opportunity, and have flocked to the Chinese market.
(Source: Zitu.com)
It is understood that BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, has issued 7 products in China as of August this year, and BlackRock also stated that the Chinese market is its strategic focus for its long-term development, that is, it may invest more capital in China in the future.
In addition to BlackRock, foreign institutions such as Vanda Fund, Schroder Fund, and Lianbo Fund are also making efforts to layout the Chinese market. Data shows that as of October 11, the cumulative net purchase amount of northbound funds in the past six months was as high as RMB 78.86 billion.
At the same time, China's capital market is also continuing to grow, with the number of listed companies in A-share increased from more than 2,000 to 4,947. As of the end of 2021, the total market value of A shares exceeded 90 trillion RMB , and the custodial face value of the exchange bond market reached 18.7 trillion , and the scale of China's capital market has firmly ranked second in the world, second only to the United States.
(Source: Zitu.com)
Similarly, as the international status of the RMB continues to increase, overseas investors' interest in Chinese bonds has also increased.The proportion of overseas foreign institutions' custodial bonds has been increasing year by year since 2016. As of the end of 2021, the balance of overseas institutions custodial in the Chinese bond market exceeded 4 trillion yuan for the first time, accounting for 3% .
With the continuous opening of China's capital market, some scholars believe that the future Chinese capital market may become the mainstream market to attract large-scale foreign capital, and the Chinese capital market has also become a "must option" for investors.
text | Wei Yansong Title | Huang Zixin Review | Zeng Yi
