Cheng Mo: The Ukrainian army is as powerful as the one who has negotiated. Exclude Putin as the object of peace talks. What are the results of nuclear war
Original Cheng Mo Visional Talking 2022-10-05 16:10
Morning mist / Repost
Content summary and important tips: This account introduces the latest situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the profound impact of this war on the future international landscape. My stock trading diary moved to the "Sighted Vision" account above and posted it, click to follow. The direction of the Russian-Ukrainian war is not based on your and my will. I am just making an objective comment!
first talk about a good news that is close to many people: Russia’s defeat is determined, and US dollar index peaked. During the domestic National Day holiday, global stock markets continued to soar this week - the cumulative increase of the major indexes in two days exceeded 5%!
Spoke Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov, spokesman of the Russian Ministry of Defense, said on October 4, "With the superior tank troops in the direction of Zolotoibarka and Alessandrovka, the enemy has successfully invaded the depths of our defense. The Russian troops have occupied the prepared defense line and continue to cause large-scale fire damage to the enemy."
This is the spokesperson of the Russian lieutenant general. The second time he told the truth about the unfavorable situation on the battlefield. The last time was after the Russian army was packed with dumplings, he admitted that the Russian army had to evacuate from Leman because it might be surrounded on all sides; this time he frankly admitted that the Ukrainian army broke through the Russian position in both directions.
The changes on the battlefield of Khelson are changing rapidly. As I expected before, the Ukrainian army started a large-scale ground battle in the right bank of the Dnieper River , and is sieging and annihilation of 20,000 elite Russian troops like a destruction.
(Lieutenant General Konashenkov admitted that the Russian army was defeated)
Ukrainian President Zelensky's video speech on the evening of October 4 revealed the authoritative information that the Ukrainian army is moving forward quickly on the battlefield.
He said: "Today, we have some good news from the frontline. As part of the current national defense operations, the Ukrainian army is carrying out quite fast and powerful advancement in southern my country. This week alone, dozens of settlements have been liberated from fake referendums in Russia. In particular, according to the military report of the Khlsong region: Lyubymivka, Khreshchenivka, Zolota Balka, Bilyaivka, Ukrainka, Velyka, Mala Oleksandrivka and Davydiv Brid The settlements were liberated and stabilized from the occupiers. This is far from a complete list..."
He said: "Our warriors will not stop moving forward. It is only a matter of time before we drive the occupiers out of all our land."
Zelensky said this not only reflects the strong confidence that the Ukrainian army has fully grasped the initiative in the war on the current battlefield, but also reflects the reality that the Ukrainian army is currently stalking to capture Russian defensive fortresses on the battlefield.
(The Ukrainian army is unstoppable in the two battlefields of the north and south)
According to recent reports from the official institutions of Russia and Ukraine, the American War Institute and a large number of war correspondents, Now the Ukrainian army is really unstoppable in the two battlefields of the eastern north and south of Ukraine. Especially the Ukrainian army has launched a large-scale ground war against 20,000 Russian troops in the Khlsong area on the right bank of the Dnieper River, and is moving forward rapidly in the north and central areas. Although a large number of elite Russian aces were concentrated in the Khlsong area, there was also a situation where the Kharkov battlefield was as defeated as a month ago.
In the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian army continued to make major breakthroughs in the north and south battlefields in eastern Ukraine. Just like the Kharkov counterattack a month ago, the situation on the battlefield changed almost every hour, and the Ukrainian national flag continued to rise in the towns recovered by the Ukrainian army.
On the Kharkov - Lugansk contact line (Ukraine-Russia border-Ijum-Leman) front, the Ukrainian army quickly advanced from two directions to besiege the Russian army's next transportation and logistics center Swatowe: one is to advance southeast from Kupiansk, cut off the logistics supply line between Swatowe and Russia from the north, and cut off the Russian army's retreat route; the other is to recover the Ukrainian elite troops and quickly advance northeast in the north of Crimina, so that Swatowe and Crimina Russian troops could not take care of each other.
From the strategic map below, it can be clearly seen that the main force of the Ukrainian army that recaptured Leman has completed the three sides of the Russian army from the north, west and south. It may be possible to recover Crimina within a few days. Most notably, a Ukrainian army brigade advanced rapidly from Crimina and Swatowe, and had cut off two railway lines and highways between the two cities.
(as of the latest battle situation in the north as of today's early morning)
Although the Ukrainian army captured the Russian fortress, they implemented the tactic of rapid interspersion, division and surrounding, encircling three quarts and one, and finally gathering and annihilation, which seems a bit convincing. In fact, whether it is rapid interspersion or final attack, it depends entirely on strength and there is no possibility of taking advantage of tricks. The Ukrainian air force and artillery units have exerted a high ability to integrate air-ground coordinated combat.
Northern battlefield The Ukrainian army's next counterattack may be divided into two groups:
1 Route Ukrainian army captured Crimina , and attacked eastward without stopping, catching the rear route of the Russian army, and together with the Ukrainian army advancing from west to east and from south to north, they formed an encirclement of these two twin cities. If the nearly 10,000 Russian troops and pro-Russian armed forces who were cut off from the rear did not take the initiative to evacuate eastward, they would repeat the fate of being surrounded and annihilated like the Lehmann defenders.
Another Ukrainian army will continue to advance eastward after capturing Svatowe , and recapture Lugansk another transportation hub city Starobilsk (starobilsk). After this place is regained, the territory of Luhansk Prefecture occupied by the Russian army since February 24 will soon fall into the hands of the Ukrainian army.
briefly analyzes the latest situation and future direction of the northern battlefield of Ukraine, and then briefly talks about the situation and future direction of the southern Khlsong battlefield where the Ukrainian army began a large-scale ground attack in the past two days and made breakthrough progress.
first look at the latest battle situation picture below as of noon today in Beijing time:
(as of the early morning of today)
From the above battle situation picture, it can be seen that in just two days, the Ukrainian army advanced forward like winds swept away the residual clouds (at the two large circles above the picture above), and at the same time, the Russian position was broken through at the bottom large circle, that is, to the west of Khlsong City.
It is not clear whether the Moscow high-level officials have made the decision to abandon the Khlsong area on the right bank of the Dnieper River, but even if the evacuation order is issued within the next 24 hours, since the two sides have concentrated up to 50,000 heavy troops (20,000 Russian troops 30,000 Ukraine) and a large number of heavy equipment in this plain area of about 2,000 square kilometers, and the bridges on the Dnieper River were destroyed by Ukrainian artillery fire, all temporary pontoon bridges and ferry facilities are within the effective range of Ukrainian heavy artillery, and the hasty evacuation of 20,000 Russian troops will be a massacre.
frankly, I can't think of any better way out for these 20,000 Russian troops besides surrender. However, given that most of the Russian troops are Russian elite aces, command agencies at all levels are closely monitored by the National Security Agency agent , personally commanded by President Putin, and no officer dares to issue a surrender order. Therefore, the battle in the next week will become very cruel, and there may be a terrifying situation in which the Russian army dies more than 1,000 in a single day.
If the Ukrainian army takes over the Khlsong area on the right bank of the Dnieper River, including Khlsong City, the Russian army's most combative ace army and the middle and lower-level officers with combat experience will be reimbursed at least half. From then on, the Russian army will suffer complete defeat on all fronts of the Ukrainian battlefield.
(The arrogant Russian army has only been in dreams since then)
readers who often read my articles must remember that I clearly pointed out a few months ago that the Ukrainian army is likely to launch a large-scale counterattack in the north and south directions of Kharkov and Khlsong Prefecture. Recently I have repeatedly said that the Ukrainian army continued to launch a tentative counterattack in many places by the large-scale artillery bombardment and deployment of heavy troops in the Khlsong area on the right bank of the Dnieper River. It is definitely not the so-called so-called attacks on the east and west, but after destroying the Russian army's logistics supplies and living forces through continuous and precise artillery bombardment, carried out a large-scale ground attack by mid-October at the latest.
I must declare again that I have never listened to or eavesdropped on the decision-making meeting of the Ukrainian high-level army. Instead, I have reasonably speculated based on the deployment of troops and normal logic of both sides. The current situation is developing completely in the direction I expected, but I just happened to be right.
After introducing the thrilling latest battle situation, he said that there were two news that had a significant impact on the Russian-Ukrainian war and the future international landscape.
One is US President Biden on the phone with Ukrainian President Zelensky on October 4. Biden revealed on an international social platform that he stressed that the United States will never recognize Russia's claim to annex Ukrainian territory; reiterated that the United States continues to firmly support Ukraine. Biden also announced the immediate implementation of a new $625 million security assistance program.
Biden said Russia's annexation of Ukraine must pay a serious price and he will continue to unite the world to support Ukraine in defending its democracy.
Obviously, Due to the unprecedented victory of many people, even Biden, a hidden and cunning Western politician, couldn't help but become tough in his tone, especially his statement that Russia must pay a serious price, is actually to hold people who initiated the Russian-Ukrainian war accountable. This determines that the result will be very cruel for the Russians, especially President Putin, and at the same time increases the risk of Russia taking risks to use nuclear weapons.
(Biden strongly warns Russia not to play with fire)
consistent with President Biden's unusually toughness recently. Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a decree on October 4 to clearly rule out the possibility of negotiations with Russian President Putin .
After Moscow officially recognized the four Ukrainian regions partially controlled by the Russian army as Russian territory on September 30, the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Commission held a meeting to pass a decision aimed at ensuring Ukraine's security and restoring territorial integrity.
The most core content of this decision has four points: First, it is clear that Ukraine must completely defeat Russia on the battlefield, and will not conduct ceasefire negotiations with Russia before completely regaining all territory including Crimea ; second, after the war, those responsible for Russia will be held accountable in accordance with international law and Ukrainian domestic law; third, after the war, they will strive to join EU and NATO to lay a security structure for long-term stability in the country; fourth, they will exclude Putin as the negotiating object, and only negotiate with the new Russian leader and sign a peace agreement .
Zelensky signed a decree to make the decision of the National Security Council officially take effect, which means that the space for compromise with Russia legally and further forced Russian President Putin to a dead end. Ukraine dared to make such extremely insulting demands publicly, obviously with strong military strength as a guarantee, and they have shown this kind of strength on the battlefield.
In accordance with the latest decree signed by Zelensky, the Ukrainian government directed the Ukrainian government to formulate a multi-layer security guarantee system plan to improve Ukraine's defense potential.
(Ukrainian National Security Conference excludes Putin as the object of peace talks)
Because Russia has publicly threatened to use nuclear weapons recently, Putin emphasized that it is not a bluff. Because the media has overpropaganda for many years about the power of Russia's nuclear weapons and the harm of the nuclear bomb itself, many people are deeply afraid of the threat brought by the nuclear war .At the end of this article, I briefly repeat the possible impact of the nuclear war that I mentioned earlier. If you don’t understand these basic common sense, it is difficult to understand why Ukraine and the Western camp are so "arrogant" and completely ignore President Putin’s nuclear blackmail .
and nuclear weapons do have strong destructive power, but their actual power is infinitely exaggerated. nuclear bombs kill people first, the high temperature generated by nuclear explosions, and the other is high-intensity nuclear radiation . The reason why the two atomic bombs released by the United States in Japan caused huge damage was mainly because the high temperature ignited the wooden houses that were commonly lived in Japan at that time. Secondly, Japan's early warning system was backward at that time and no effective evacuation of personnel was carried out. The vast majority of Japanese who died from nuclear bombs died from high temperatures, while the proportion of them died from nuclear radiation in the following decades was extremely low. Nuclear radiation is not as terrible as advertised on Simplified Chinese Internet. The nuclear leak at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, which claims to be equivalent to the power of 300 Hiroshima atomic bomb explosion, only killed less than 10 people in total. There were no legendary deformed species, nor were there any so-called Russian troops entering the radiation area and causing a large number of casualties. The reports are all lies spread by Simplified Chinese Internet. On the contrary, the protected area has now become a paradise for plants and animals.
. Russia's nuclear capabilities are extremely limited and are closely monitored by the Western camp. If not all of Russia's nuclear bombs are at least 95% of them were manufactured in the former Soviet Union. If the nuclear bombs are not maintained in time, they will fail. The cost of maintaining nuclear bombs is extremely high - it requires regular replacement of ammunition for detonation and highly concentrated nuclear raw materials. It is reasonable to speculate that Russia can use very few nuclear bombs. In addition, Russia has extremely limited tools for launching and dropping nuclear bombs, and all are under the strict surveillance of Western allies led by the United States. The Western camp has far advanced nuclear retaliation methods than Russia, and has an extremely advanced, mature and missile defense system that crushes Russia, which has .
(Russia's nuclear weapons will only destroy itself)
. Once Russia presses the nuclear button , whether it is tactical nuclear weapon or strategic nuclear weapons; whether it is slaughtering Ukraine or other countries, it will immediately lead to large-scale nuclear counterattacks from the three major nuclear powers of the Western camp, the United States, Britain and France. Many people believe that Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, and the West does not necessarily take nuclear retaliation and strikes, but will only use conventional forces. This is ignorance of the current international situation. As long as Russia dares to use nuclear weapons, the Western camp will definitely seize this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to completely dismantle Russian nuclear and conventional weapons, that is, NATO sends troops into Russia and destroys the Russian regime. US President Biden clearly told Putin and informed the whole world that Russia's courage to move nuclear will immediately lead to such extremely terrible consequences.
4. Russia's brazen use of nuclear weapons will bring extremely terrible consequences, including but not limited to : (1) The Western camp, including Ukraine, is likely to die from Russian nuclear weapons, which may cause up to 500,000 to 5 million people; (2) The large-scale nuclear retaliation strike in the Western camp may cause up to millions to tens of millions of people in Russia; (3) The Russian Federation will disintegrate and split into many countries, and the territory that is currently controversial with other countries will be returned to other countries ; (4) The Russian Federation will inherit the Russian Federation after the division. The main state is no longer a nuclear-owned country, and it also loses the seat of the permanent council of the UN Security Council (it is not ruled out that the UN Security Council will expand its membership and cancel the veto of major powers); (5) Most countries split from the Russian Federation, as well as most of the CIS member states, will turn to the Western camp; (6) Order those who use nuclear weapons will either die in the nuclear retaliation attacks of the Western camp, or be arrested and sent to an international court like the "Tokyo Trial".
5. Look at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, which have been hit by the atomic bomb, you will know that will not harm the nuclear pollution of the area for more than ten, decades or hundreds of years; there will not be nuclear winter that will harm the entire human race.Compared with nature's powerful repair capabilities, the explosion of dozens or hundreds of nuclear bombs on the surface of the earth is like laying a string of Liuyang fireworks on a huge square of millions of square meters. Abandon the deep-rooted misinformation in your mind, and never listen to anti-intellectual hype without scientific basis. Don’t be too anxious at all.
below is a statistical chart of the Russian war damage situation unilaterally released by Ukraine. It has not been verified by a third party, but I have judged it based on various data and it is highly credible. This is the most important observation window to observe the intensity of the battle. Note that the Russian helicopters, tanks, , armored vehicles, and other load-bearing vehicles suffered shocking losses, while the Russian army had a low death toll. It is not ruled out that the Ukrainian army deliberately hid it for the battlefield to keep it confidential.
(Urban's military combat losses statistics released by the Ukrainian side on October 5)
Since the outbreak of the war on February 24, the Russian military (including pro-Russian armed forces) deaths reached 61,000 , including 2 lieutenant generals and 10 major generals ( Russian Army No. 20th Group). Major General Jokov, the commander of the 144th MoF Division of the Army, was seriously injured and not killed on September 24, not counting it. There were about 1,600 lieutenants to the colonel officers; I guess based on public information, there were about 22,000 officers and soldiers killed in the Ukrainian army ( Commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces revealed on August 22 that nearly 9,000 soldiers died, including more than 7,000 officers and soldiers disappeared, which is very close to my speculation at that time). More than 10,000 Ukrainian civilians were killed (Jianzhong.com said that Mariupol .11 million civilians were killed without any basis or impossible). The loss of life caused by war is really shocking!
Let us continue to pray: May God give peace and stop war; let the evil be repaid, and the good be protected.
Speak with facts·Written with conscience
Information source: 2022-10-05 WeChat official account Foresight Bi Tan
ID: yjbt-303
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