On April 29, Beijing's first-level response was lifted, and people from low-risk areas will no longer be quarantined for 14 days when they enter Beijing;
On April 30, the last high-risk area in Beijing, Chaoyang, was reduced to low-risk, and the 16th district of the imperial capital was all low-risk.
The subsequent "From 0:00 on May 6, Beijing toll expressways will resume charging vehicle tolls" has fermented rapidly. In addition, with the determination of the time of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the joy of the nationwide "unsealing" swept away the haze of the epidemic in the past, and the joy of running around and telling each other.
On the same day:
There is a large OAT platform data showing that the search volume of departure flights in Beijing has increased by 5 times, car rental orders have recovered to 80% year-on-year last year, the number of visits to surrounding scenic spots soared by 199%, and the number of healthy tourists around Beijing is expected to exceed 5 million.
air ticket reservations have increased by 15 times, with Chengdu, Chongqing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Changsha, Shenzhen, Kunming, Guangzhou, Xi'an, Xiamen and Sanya becoming popular destinations, and "stocking hotels" has become a trend, and the number of coupons for high-star hotels has increased by 650%.
A retaliatory consumption seems to be coming as scheduled. What will the next trend of insurance, which has encountered the most bleak "good start" in history? Will it usher in a wave of retaliatory increase in premiums like "retaliatory consumption" and make up for the first quarter? This is extremely likely in the first quarter market data where
has been negative.
1 The first positive: premiums rebounded significantly in March, up 83 percentage points month-on-month
At the beginning of 2020, a sudden outbreak caught the insurance industry off guard. The life insurance industry, which relies severely on offline channels, is even more miserable, and the "good start" with high expectations has ended in a sad way.
In the first month of 2020, China's insurance industry's scale premium negative growth html; in the second month, the negative growth of scale premium 11 percentage points. In particular, the bank insurance channel has a cliff-like negative growth, and a large proportion of those who can decline everywhere.
line to March, this number has improved considerably. The 2.3% increase in the original premium in the first quarter was the significant increase in single-month premiums in March, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a month-on-month increase of 83%.
2, this figure was negative growth of 70 percentage points.
is especially true for giant insurance companies that almost represent the market trend. Taking the five major listed insurance companies including China Life , China Insurance, Ping An , China Taiping Insurance , and Xinhua Insurance as an example, the monthly premium in March increased by 92 percentage points month-on-month. In particular, the property insurance business achieved an increase of 11 percentage points, a month-on-month increase of 120 percentage points.
As for the year-on-year decline in life insurance premiums narrowed, 0.3%, an increase of 80 percentage points month-on-month. You should know that in the life insurance industry, premiums increased by 13 percentage points in the first two months, and negative growth of 31 percentage points in a single month in February.
2 The second positive: the three major insurance types have returned strongly, health insurance +auto insurance+agricultural insurance
first quarter premiums were 1.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year. Behind the seemingly low, it actually rebounded significantly compared with the negative growth in the first and second months.
and three major insurance types with strong growth emerged:
first. The largest growth pole is health insurance, and the performance is the most beautiful. 264.1 billion yuan of health insurance premiums, an increase of 46.9 billion yuan, an increase of 22%. Among them, the health insurance premium exceeded 100 billion yuan in March, reaching 109.8 billion yuan.
Second, auto insurance premiums have improved significantly, from negative growth to positive growth. In the first two months, the largest insurance type of property insurance, auto insurance increased by 5 percentage points, and a negative growth of 18 percentage points in February. In a single month in March, auto insurance premiums were 72.3 billion yuan, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year.
Third, agricultural insurance recovered strongly , with a total premium of 18.7 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 21 percentage points year-on-year. Especially in March, the month-on-month closed at 9.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 53%.
Overall, property insurance companies have better premium performance than life insurance companies, which may also be related to their more online expansion channels. Typical property insurance companies have health insurance premiums of more than 50 billion yuan, an increase of more than 40% year-on-year.
3 The third positive: a wave of agents encouraged by supervision is coming.
4 April 22 China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission attended the press conference of the State Council Information Office. The sentence "The development of the insurance agent team absorbs labor and provides more jobs" sets the tone of life insurance.
An internal communication data showed that the "Seven Life Insurance Firms" added a total of about 700,000 to 800,000 new labor force in the first quarter.
Lenovo's GDP figures in the first quarter tell the reality of the economic environment. The unemployed population is destined to increase. A large number of graduates, travel, sales and even migrant workers who are lingering at home... 2020 will be a big year for the increase in employees. Perhaps it is also the best window period for recruitment since the 1990s.
Under the double squeeze of premium pressure and team loss, "increase continues to increase" has become the keywords for various life insurance companies, and a war of increase in staff started on the new Long March of transformation and epidemic. In the first quarter when
was unable to expand its business, life insurance companies, especially giants, accumulated enough agent teams. Typical examples such as China Life Insurance benefit from the expansion of the agent team. In the first quarter, its total manpower in sales channels exceeded 2 million, and the average monthly effective manpower in large insurance increased by nearly 20 percentage points year-on-year.
2020 A large-scale agent increase is coming. The second quarter should be the real "good start" quarter for insurance companies.
3 month single-month premium rebound is a test of the above measures.
4 The fourth positive: the capital market rebounded, and countries rushed to introduce stimulus plans
A shares rose by 1.3%, ending the last trading day before the holiday.
In the capital market that is constantly falling, one of the biggest concerns of the insurance market is that the instability of insurance capital returns under the intensified global capital market volatility has exacerbated the operating fluctuations of insurance companies.
In fact, as the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreads overseas, the economies of various countries are facing a major impact, and many leaders of countries have begun to worry about economic recession. In order to better respond to the impact of the epidemic, many countries have launched economic stimulus policies such as monetary and fiscal policies in order to boost the economy. For example, the leaders of the G20 announced that they would work together to save the market.
Recently, the speculation of "US stocks hit a second bottom" was that the overseas capital market continued to rebound and rose in the week before the festival, and even opened high and closed high. The Dow Jones Index crossed the high point of this rebound in one fell swoop before the festival.
This is also one of the reasons for the recent rise of the domestic stock market. In fact, there is another thing that is closely related to the overall environment. After the first quarter's performance was released, it was all negative.
Especially in the recent stage when listed companies publish annual reports and first-quarter reports, they all think that due to the impact of the epidemic, many companies' first-quarter performance will be more embarrassing. In fact, the performance does not seem to be as bad as imagined, which also gives the capital market some confidence.
negative news in the second quarter and even throughout the year, can the capital market be worse than at the beginning of the epidemic?
5 The fifth positive: the support of 6.1 billion insured profits, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 2,000%
is still the same data circulating in the insurance circle. The insured profits of property insurance companies in the first quarter of 2020 reached 6.1 billion yuan, and this figure in the same period in 2019 was negative 300 million yuan.
Among them, the largest type of property insurance, the underwriting profit of auto insurance reached 9.5 billion yuan, an increase of 15%, and the underwriting profit was nearly 5 percentage points. This is the best performance of auto insurance in recent years.
During the same period, the underwriting profit of large-scale health insurance for loss-making enterprises decreased by 900 million yuan, but it still reached 1.3 billion yuan. Another big loss-making player, Credit Insurance, achieved an underwriting profit of nearly 200 million yuan, while a loss of 2 billion yuan in the same period last year.
guarantee insurance in the mine-breaking area suffered the highest loss, reaching 4.3 billion yuan, and last year it made a profit of nearly 200 million yuan. This was also explained at the State Information Office press conference on April 22: The first quarter, with guaranteed insurance payment expenditures of 16.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 50% year-on-year. Reasons: Some enterprises and individuals have decreased their income, their repayment ability has decreased, and their default rate has increased. The increase in underwriting profits of
is also the reason why property insurance's profit performance in the first quarter exceeded life insurance companies.
6 The sixth positive: the decline in commission fees and the accumulation of more ammunition
This is an interesting phenomenon: After the premium achieved positive growth of 2.3 percentage points in the first quarter, various expenses of insurance companies were restricted by the pace of business development.
1 positive and negative are all more cost space, or profit space.
In the first quarter, insurance companies' handling fees and commission expenses totaled 163.4 billion yuan, with a negative growth of nearly 11 billion yuan. Looking at the business and management expenses, a total of 124.6 billion yuan was saved, saving 2.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The two items totaled 13.2 billion yuan.
Let’s look at other more critical indicators, such as insurance compensation expenditure in the first quarter decreased by nearly 30 billion yuan year-on-year, down 9 percentage points.
, and another large cash flow expenditure, the retirement funds of life insurance companies fell by 55% year-on-year to over 100 billion yuan. These are all sprints in the second and third quarters, providing more ammunition support.
7 The seventh positive: the negative premium is thirsty for the insurance industry. From the perspective of commercial operations, the biggest negative for the insurance industry in the first quarter was not premiums and investment, but the overall negative growth rate of profit exceeded double digits.
100.2 billion yuan in the first quarter profit was 17 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Reinsurance companies, which are already small, are most troubled, with negative profits of nearly 80%, achieving only 300 million yuan in profits. The hardest hit area among them is the largest life insurance company, with negative profit growth of nearly 18 percentage points.
This is a more terrible thing that increases the premium by only 2 percentage points, and the new payment fees for insured investment funds and independent accounts this year have dropped by about 40 percentage points.
There is no premium, there is no fee, and there is no investment income without premium, explains the decline in net profit of the insurance industry in the first quarter of 2020, and also indicates the later premium craving.
Behind the above logic and performance, the ferocity in the second and third quarters is destined. A considerable number of companies do not lower their market operating goals, and it takes nine or even eight months to complete the 12-month task.
8 The eighth positive: Postscript, premium demand under the national resumption of work
Behind every large-scale public health crisis, it will stimulate the improvement of social risk awareness and public insurance awareness, and stimulate more insurance needs. The rise of
health insurance has proven this.
From the perspective of the national macroeconomic, the average operating rate of enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 99% in mid-April. A nationwide wave of resumption of work has arrived. In the caliber of "normal epidemic prevention", people's lives have returned to normal and the epidemic is "unlocked".
In addition, the most important point is: this new crown pneumonia epidemic will not change the upward development trend of the insurance industry, but will instead accelerate the process of explosive changes in the industry.
has experienced the baptism of this epidemic. The disconnected digitalization, or the lack of technological capabilities, will surely be greatly improved, and the integration of online and offline will be accelerated.
The improvement of consciousness, the arrival of the tide of resumption of work, and the acceleration of numbers all indicate a better future.
