There is a slang phrase in the United States: No pain, no gain. Translated, if you don’t suffer, you will get nothing.
In investment, fund managers will inevitably encounter pain, but the difference is how they choose in pain.
The entire April of 2022 may be the most painful time for Shanghai fund managers. Many fund managers are either blocked in the company or blocked at home. On the other hand, the market also responded too violently to the impact of the epidemic, and fell unilaterally for almost two months. This has caused those fund managers in Shanghai to suffer both physical and psychological torture. The freezing point of the
market reached its peak on April 26, 2022. That day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 2886.43 points, and after breaking through 3000 points, a rapid decline occurred. Many people say that the big bear market is coming.
That night, Xu Zhibiao of Cathay Fund was also very anxious. What he was worried about was not that the market had fallen, but that the market had fallen to an absolutely undervalued position and was worried that the fund holders would redeem it at the bottom. He wrote a letter overnight "A fund manager of a growth stock has something to say in the darkest moment."
In the letter, Xu Zhibiao admitted that this month was the most uncomfortable month since he officially managed the portfolio. For Xu Zhibiao, who has a low turnover rate, a group of growth stocks in which he holds in have grown by more than 50% in the first quarter, it is still impossible to avoid the drop in caused by market sentiment.
In this letter, Xu Zhibiao made an objective review of whether he could avoid such a big drop and how he should deal with it. He pointed out a key information: "From the perspective of growth style, the current valuation of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 is only 15.6 times and 24 times. CSI 500 Index has reached the lowest level since 2010. CSI 1000 Index has also been in the valuation quantile of 6% since 2010, so we believe that the current growth style is significantly undervalued."
is simply translated, and growth stocks represented by CSI 500 are the lowest valuation quantiles since 2010. After experiencing a decline of more than 30% at the beginning of the year in the small and medium-sized growth style, Xu Zhibiao told the entire market: Now is the best opportunity to buy growth stocks in 12 years. At this darkest moment, Xu Zhibiao chose to resist.
The market bottomed out and rebounded on April 27. What led the market was the high-quality growth stocks that were mistakenly killed by panic in the early stage. This may not be a coincidence. Xu Zhibiao's letter from the bottom has also become a good story in the market this year.
Turn the time back to the Spring Festival in 2021. One noon on the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, Cheng Zhou from Guotai Fund and a common friend and couple had lunch at Daning International . Under the New Year atmosphere, the surroundings are filled with joy.
However, Cheng Zhou's face was a little "depressed". He smiled bitterly and told me that this year was the worst start for him for so many years in the industry.
Because he did not buy the "core assets" that the market was sought after at the time, Cheng Zhou's net value lagged behind at the beginning of 2021, while the "Mao Index" on the other side was rising.
Cheng Zhou has never been a person who "butt determines the head". He used objective and rational analysis to tell me that no matter how to calculate this batch of "core assets" stocks, they are too expensive. Cheng Zhou told me that when he bought Moutai in 2016, no one paid much attention to Moutai, but was paying attention to the " asset securitization " story of various small stocks. At that time, the location of buying Moutai stocks was very comfortable. Today's Moutai has not changed much from the fundamentals when he bought it back then, but its valuation has been many times higher.
Cheng Zhou told me that there are a group of small and medium-sized companies on the market, and their performance growth rate is not worse than those of the "Mao Index", but their valuations are much cheaper.
I asked Chengzhou, didn’t you say that companies under 20 billion won’t watch it? Cheng Zhou shook his head and didn't think so. He thinks that what reflects the company's value is fundamentals and corresponding valuations, which have nothing to do with various labels or market value.
Coincidentally, that day was the highest point of the "Mao Index" and the lowest point of Chengzhou's relative returns in 2021. After the Spring Festival, the market growth stocks represented by the "Mao Index" have seen a temporary high, and Chengzhou is optimistic about small and medium-sized growth stocks to rebound.
That year, the value of Cathay Juxin managed by Chengzhou increased by 21.66%, ranking 325 out of 2125 balanced funds, ranking relatively in the top 15% of the total market (data source: Tiantian Fund Network ).
From these two short stories, we see that both fund managers of Cathay Fund choose to stick to their value in pain. When they have the ultimate market style, they have some "unsociable" but through independent judgment of value, they have become unique "scenery" in the market.
"Independent and objective, not follow the crowd" Cathay Fund's active equity
"Independent and objective, not follow the crowd" is an important feature of Cathay Fund's active equity. When it comes to "not following the crowd", we have to mention fund manager Zheng Youwei.
In the fifth season of the late night casino of Cathay Fund, Zheng Youwei had a wonderful sharing on the root of the stock market's " herd effect ":
Risk aversion is human instinct. As early as the primitive era, they faced the risk of going out to hunt. If you don't go out to hunt, you will be at risk of starvation. If you go out to hunt, you will face the risk of being eaten by wild animals. In such a risk game, what the primitive people finally thought of was a group of people going out to hunt, which greatly reduced the risk of being eaten.
This is the root cause of the "herd effect" being injected into our genes. Even in modern society, this gene from instinct has not changed. In the long river of time, the herd effect becomes an instinctive reaction of human beings to seek a sense of security.
can explain the "herd effect" in such a low-level way because Zheng Youwei studied in a university and has a professional understanding of the origin and evolution of species. This also makes Zheng Youwei better at controlling his emotions than other fund managers.
Cheng Zhou, Xu Zhibiao, and Zheng Youwei are all incompatible with the popular "grouping" in their positions. Whether it is the bull market for consumer liquor in 2020 or the bull market for new energy electric vehicles in 2021, they always maintain a balanced combination and insist on laying out some unpopular industries that are ignored by the market. The three of them will never perform particularly well at a certain stage, but they all have excellent medium and long-term performance.
Chengzhou: A reverse trader who follows the trend
Many people know that Chengzhou's investment has a certain reverse thinking. When many stocks are at the bottom, Chengzhou is buying. But if we disassemble Cheng Zhou's long-term performance, we will find that he has not performed particularly poorly in any year and is particularly headwind. This is because Cheng Zhou has a strong overall view and his investment portfolio will not "reverse the times and the general trend".
Take Cathay Juxin, which has the longest management time in Chengzhou, as an example. In the past 8 complete years, only the big bear market in 2018 has suffered losses, and the relative rankings of each year will not be too behind. I once wrote in an article that an excellent fund manager can reach a high lower limit during the wind. Cheng Zhou is a fund manager with a high and low limit.
Figure: Cathay Juxin historical performance
Data source: Tiantian Fund Network (Note: The platform adopts the latest similar rankings, and is segmented downward according to the asset dimension based on the original first-level classification)
is implemented in specific operations. Chengzhou will be somewhat reversed with the market in stages, but this reverse is in line with the changes in fundamentals.
The two operations of Cheng Zhou in 2014 and 2015 were deeper.
All of 2014, Chengzhou's heavy holdings in undervalued financial real estate were "badged" by small-cap stocks in the market for 10 months, and finally saw a collective valuation repair in the last month. In just one month, Chengzhou's ranking quickly rose from the last 50% to the top 10% at the end of the year. By 2015, Cheng Zhou was also a little behind in the beginning. That year was the craziest half year for TMTh. When it was at the top of the market, Cheng Zhou found that there was no stock to buy, so he chose to lower his position at the top of the market at the craziest time.
two reverse operations seem to be in conflict with market sentiment, and behind them are both in line with the background of the times.The liquidity easing in 2014 corresponds to the rise in market valuation levels, and Da Finance and Real Estate should benefit first. In 2015, the off-market leverage was reduced, and liquidity deteriorated, combined with the extremely high valuation bubble, holding cash is the best choice.
In the past few years, Cheng Zhou’s memory of reverse trading was a heavy holding of raw materials in the fourth quarter of 2018. As the first fund manager in the market to hold heavy investment in raw materials, Cheng Zhou did not have any medical background. He just felt that the fundamentals of the raw materials were very good and did not wear "tinted glasses" to see. Many fund managers in pharmaceutical majors miss raw materials because they put their inherent labels and regard them as a low-end manufacturing. A batch of raw materials purchased from Chengzhou at the bottom increased by several times.
Chengzhou's combination has always been particularly balanced, with industry scattered + stocks scattered. He mentioned that this is related to his "cowardly and cautious" personality. No industry or individual stock can bring 100% certainty. Cheng Zhou does not want to do his investment portfolio too extreme, and pursues more high Sharp ratios to achieve better risk-adjusted returns.
As a veteran of the Golden Bull Award, Cheng Zhou has a golden investment sentence that is well known to the market: "I think everything needs to have a price, and there is no priceless treasure in the world." His favorite book is "Cycle" by Hodward Max. The back and forth swing of pendulum is the never-changing law of the capital market.
Xu Zhibiao: A growth stock player who believes that the average return is
Xu Zhibiao is a fund manager who is easy to impress people. He is very brave to express his true thoughts in his heart, and he will not have an ambiguous view every time he broadcasts or interviews.
Xu Zhibiao’s specialness is that he is one of the few growth stock players who believe in the return of the mean. The return of the mean is not only to dare to be optimistic when the market is low, but also to know how to avoid when the market is high.
As a pharmaceutical fund manager, Xu Zhibiao once looked down on the pharmaceutical industry at a high level in a live broadcast. As early as a live broadcast in June 2021, Xu Zhibiao said this:
"The pharmaceutical industry is my old business. I was originally a pharmaceutical researcher and now I also manage a pharmaceutical theme fund Cathay Pharmaceutical Health. But recently I think if I hold a pharmaceutical theme fund, I might be more cautious. Why? I have always been thinking against the trend. Many companies that have set new highs in recent times may have had a larger bubble. Not only PE, but PS may be at a dozen times the level. So I think in this, it should be said that the risks are relatively high." Looking back, Xu Zhibiao's combination did not buy CXOs with a high valuation at the time, and the pharmaceutical industry also started from that position and entered a year-long bear market. Take Cathay Health, which Xu Zhibiao has been managing for the longest time, as an example. In the past four years, it only suffered losses in 2018, and the relative returns performance in each year is in the top 50%. Xu Zhibiao's other representative work is a full-market fund established at the end of 2019. Cathay Research Selection holds two years, and its net value has reached 1.9311 (data deadline: July 14, 2022).
Figure: Cathay Big Health historical performance
Data source: Tiantian Fund Network (Note: The platform adopts the latest similar rankings, and is segmented downward according to the asset dimension based on the original first-level classification)
Xu Zhibiao's investment framework has a cross summary: "The denominator determines the buying and selling, and the numerator determines the direction."
denominator comes from risk premium index. As a risk asset, stocks provide sufficiently attractive implicit rate of return from the perspective of major assets. Buffett once said in a speech that stocks are expensive or cheap, and should be compared with risk-free returns. Xu Zhibiao used the denominator to judge the bull and bear direction of the equity market.
molecules come from the macro cycle. When the economy is good, you should buy pro-cyclical industries, and when the economy is bad, you should buy counter-cyclical industries. The direction corresponds to the configuration of the meso-level industry.
After setting the trading and direction, it will implement bottom-up stock selection, which is also the main source of Xu Zhibiao's excess returns. Looking at Xu Zhibiao's combination, the concentration of individual stocks is very high and has distinct bottom-up characteristics.
Looking at Xu Zhibiao's investment framework in a subdivision, you will find two characteristics: balanced and moderate reverse.
Regarding balance, Xu Zhibiao also mentioned in a public interview that "the combination will accommodate some stocks that do not rise or even fall in the short term, rather than betting on one direction, not buying new energy or buying medicines all. If you do this, what is the difference between it and ETF?" Judging from the historical holding industry of Cathay Health, Xu Zhibiao should have a very wide range of stock selection.
Regarding moderate reverse, Xu Zhibiao often buys it earlier than others and sells it earlier than others. In the third quarter of 2019, Xu Zhibiao bought new energy vehicles in large quantities, which was earlier than many fund managers who looked at new energy backgrounds. However, when the entire market was optimistic about Hengrui , Xu Zhibiao did not hold a position.
Xu Zhibiao mentioned many times that he believes in the mean regression. But Xu Zhibiao is also an optimistic person. Combining it together means his investment philosophy: optimism corresponds to positive growth in the future; mean regression corresponds to bubbles that avoid high valuations.
Zheng Youwei: All-weather "football coach"
Zheng Youwei's investment has two characteristics: 1) All-weather; 2) The combination management method of football team formation. all-weather capability is Zheng Youwei's investment goal, portfolio management method, and how Zheng Youwei can achieve his goals.
Zheng Youwei's all-weather, you can perceive it from the following picture: Zheng Youwei's advantage selection of Cathay Jiangyuan, which was managed by the end of the second quarter of 2019, has achieved positive returns for 9 consecutive quarters. has positive returns in 12 full quarters of historical management, and one of the negative returns in one quarter was only adjusted by -0.48%.
Figure: Cathay Jiangyuan Advantage Selected Quarterly Performance
Data Source: Tiantian Fund Network
In the overseas asset management industry, how to manage portfolios is a profound and profound knowledge. Zheng Youwei's characteristics also lie in the ability of portfolio management. He achieved all-weather goal through a 441 combination lineup.
40% of the bottom position is the defender, achieving a bottom-line yield of 15%. This part mainly comes from mature industries with stable business models, stable demand and relatively good supply structure.
40% position is a forward, pursuing the profit elasticity of the combination, and is the main source of opening up excess returns. This part is a rotational asset with relatively high prosperity and usually pays more attention to the expansion of the demand side.
10% of the position is goalkeeper, mainly some unpopular stocks that are ignored by the market. On the basis of maintaining the integrity of the portfolio, it achieves "surprising" results.
In addition to the 441 combination management system, Zheng Youwei also has a strict stop-profit and stop-loss mechanism. Once the stock's valuation quantile reaches a historically high position, Zheng Youwei will take profit. Regarding stop loss, Zheng Youwei has stricter stop loss discipline. If the stock trend is lower than expected within half a year, he will decisively replace it.
Because A-share market fluctuates greatly, it either rises or falls too much. Zheng Youwei's portfolio management methods and trading discipline have helped him achieve "all-weather" performance in the past few years.
The selection of Cathay Jiangyuan Advantages, which has been managed by Zheng Youwei for the longest time, is ranked among the top 20% of the market every year since 2019; all products managed by Zheng Youwei have positive returns in their employment (data deadline: July 15, 2022).
Data source: Tiantian Fund Network; Data deadline: July 14, 2022
Zheng Youwei loves fishing, but has a different understanding of fishing. He believes that fishing requires patience and not to be determined in one place. When it comes to investment, Zheng Youwei has stronger flexibility.
does not bet on the track, and the balanced investment of Cathay Fund
Cheng Zhou, Xu Zhibiao, and Zheng Youwei seem to have different investment styles and portfolios, but there are similarities at the bottom of the investment philosophy, which also represents the active equity style of Cathay Fund.
Commonality 1: Believe in mean regression. They believe in the regression of mean value in their bones. Cheng Zhou and Xu Zhibiao both mentioned the average regression of the market in public live broadcasts or interviews. Zheng Youwei's stop-profit and stop-loss trading strategy also has mean regression.
Commonality 2: No betting on the track, a balanced combination construction method. They do not pursue outstanding short-term performance, but their medium- and long-term performance is very good.
These three fund managers also have a deep "mark" of Cathay Pacific. Cheng Zhou is an old employee who has worked at Cathay Pacific for 18 years. He once joked that he was still a young man when he joined Cathay Pacific, but now he is a middle-aged uncle. Xu Zhibiao was also a researcher who joined the Cathay Pacific industry. After a brief job at ABC Bank, he returned to a new chapter in Cathay Pacific's investment career. Zheng Youwei started investing in public funds from Cathay Pacific and is currently in charge of Cathay Pacific research.
does not bet on the track and balanced investment is also what Cathay Fund has always advocated.
track investment has been the mainstream investment method for A shares in the past few years. Most of the fund managers 10 years ago were all-weather style, while most of the fund managers 10 years later were segmented track style.
explores the deep reasons behind the investigation, there are two main reasons: 1) Today, the number of funds has reached tens of thousands, and only if the "label" is clear enough and the product is extreme enough can it be recognized; 2) If you bet on the track in the short term, it will bring extremely high returns and the scale will expand rapidly.
track investment sometimes reflects "agent risk". When managers are at the track, they can quickly expand their scale and earn management fees, and when the track vent passes, the biggest loss is the holder. "Agent risk" corresponds to the mismatch between the risk and return of the holder and the manager.
The investment style of the active equity team of Cathay Fund is "not betting on the track, balanced investment". We hope to "strive investors to a more stable base-holding experience in this way." We believe that behind this investment style is based on the interests of holders and strive to maximize the fund investment returns of holders.
We know that when selling funds, there is a line of words "Past returns do not represent the future." But many ordinary holders do not understand the true meaning of this sentence.
Suppose you see a fund that has obtained a 40% return in the past year, and you usually think that the fund's return can be repeated. But if the fund's income mainly comes from beta in a certain track, once the beta goes down, it may lead to a large adjustment in the net value of the product, which will eventually make the holder lose money.
In comparison, fund manager Alpha's abilities will be more stable than industry betas. Through more balanced allocation, the source of fund yield is mainly the alpha of fund managers' stock selection, so the net value fluctuations in the product will be lower in competition-type products, making it easier for holders to make money.
There is no track that is eternally upward and non-volatility in the market (if there is, active fund managers will be replaced by index funds on a single track).
Cathay Fund emphasizes that "not betting on the track, balanced investment" is a correct value. Doing so will inevitably lead to certain loss of the management scale brought about by short-term performance explosion, but in a long run, asset management company , which truly puts the interests of holders first, can gain long-term trust.
In fact, we have seen that Cathay Pacific Fund has been in the "difficult to do" stage at the bottom of the market many times, issuing products:
Cathay Internet+ issued after the "stock market crash" in 2015, with a yield of 242.70% since its establishment (data end: June 30, 2022; data source: Cathay Internet+ Stock Fund 2022 Quarterly Report).
Cathay Health, issued after the "circuit break" in 2016, has a yield of 289.12% since its establishment (data ends: June 30, 2022; data source: Cathay Health Stock Fund 2022 Quarterly Report).
Cathay Value Preferred, issued at the bottom of the market in 2018, has a yield of 231.37% since its establishment (data ends: June 30, 2022; data source: Cathay Value Preferred Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund 2022 Quarterly Report).
The products issued in the sluggish market of these products are not large in the initial scale, but they have truly brought generous returns to holders.
does not pursue the short-term extreme, but needs to be stable for a long time
0 The establishment of Cathay Pacific Fund is a milestone in the history of China's capital market development. In October 1997, the " Interim Measures for the Management of Securities Investment Funds " was issued, paving the way for the establishment of public funds.On March 5, 1998, Cathay Fund was established as the first fund company in Chinese history. At that time, a total of 10 fund companies were established in 1998 and 1999, and they were collectively called "Old Ten".
The establishment of the "Old Ten" fund companies is the first batch of institutional investors in the A-share market in the true sense, and has also promoted the market to transform from the "manager era" in that year to the subsequent fundamental investment model. After that, institutional investors continued to grow, pushing the A-share market to gradually mature, developing into the second largest capital market in the world today, and attracting a large number of overseas investors.
, which has been established for more than 20 years, has always adhered to a culture of steady development. Internally, Cathay Fund does not encourage the extreme investment, and externally, Cathay Fund does not create a top-notch culture. Within Cathay Fund, there are many long-term running players with moderate management scale, outstanding long-term excess returns, and able to maintain the lower limit during the headwind period.
In the assessment of fund managers, Cathay Fund is also a well-known loose culture in the industry:
First of all, fund managers have a lot of freedom to invest.
Secondly, Cathay Fund uses long-term performance to evaluate fund managers and will not be laid off because of poor short-term performance of fund managers.
In the inheritance of the investment system, Cathay Fund adopts the model of old fund managers leading newcomers. For example, a group of new fund managers promoted by Cathay Pacific this year have learned investment by co-managing products with old fund managers. In this way, senior fund managers pass on their understanding of investment.
, which pursues balanced investment, is a "clear stream of the asset management industry today."
, the asset management industry needs long-term trust
, In the asset management industry, many people will blindly pursue short-term scale expansion, but ignore a fundamental problem: the asset side and the responsible side are matched. If the asset expansion cannot be taken over with the ability to exceed returns, then today's assets will become future liabilities.
In history, we have seen many such cases. The fund's scale was 100 million when it was 1 yuan, and when it was 3 yuan, it became 10 billion. In the end, Beta peaked from 3 yuan to 2 yuan. Even though the corresponding net value starting point of this fund still rose by 100%, most customers came in at high levels, and the loss ratio was much greater than profit.
Short-term assets will become long-term liabilities one day, seriously affecting the company's long-term reputation. The core of the asset management industry is trust in external operations. Building trust is a long process. It's like a snowball, the more powerful it gets behind it. On the contrary, it only takes a moment to destroy trust.
From the investment system of three fund managers of Cathay Fund, Cheng Zhou, Xu Zhibiao and Zheng Youwei, it can also reflect the long-term values of Cathay Fund: insist on doing the right and difficult things constantly, not betting on short-term explosive power, but strive to achieve long-term outstanding performance.
Just a few days ago, the list of the 17th China Fund Industry Star Fund Awards hosted by Securities Times , Morningstar Information, Shanghai Securities and China Galaxy Securities , and China Galaxy Securities provided data support and research support was grandly announced. Cathay Fund won the Top Ten Star Fund Company Award in 2021, as well as its two products, Cathay Jiangyuan Advantages (Note: This product is managed by Zheng Youwei) and Cathay Juxin Value Advantages (Note: This product is managed by Chengzhou) respectively won the three-year continuous return flexible allocation hybrid star fund award and the seven-year continuous return flexible allocation hybrid star fund award.
This also proves again that if you do the right thing for a long time, you will definitely get the reward you deserve in the end!
Risk warning: The views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or commitment. The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. Cathay Juxin Value Advantage Mixed A was established on 2013.12.17, 2017-2021 Growth rate/performance benchmark (%): 13.46/17.32, -25.78/-19.66, 60.25/29.43, 66.75/22.61, 21.06/-3.12. Cathay Health Stock was established on 2016.02.03, 2017-2021 Growth Rate/Sales Benchmark (%): 23.54/2.83, -23.45/-27.80, 81.60/16.06, 55.59/18.38, 20.51/0.34.Guotai Jiangyuan Advantage was established on March 19, 2018, with growth rate/performance benchmark (%) from 2018 to 2021: -31.48/-10.60, 48.86/19.92, 85.10/15.20, 31.58/0.30. The above funds are stock and mixed, with expected returns and expected risks higher than those of money market and bonds. Investors should read the fund legal documents carefully before purchasing. my country's fund operation time is short, and the fund's past performance does not represent future performance. Funds are risky and investments should be cautious.
There is a slang phrase in the United States: No pain, no gain. Translated, if you don’t suffer, you will get nothing.
In investment, fund managers will inevitably encounter pain, but the difference is how they choose in pain.
The entire April of 2022 may be the most painful time for Shanghai fund managers. Many fund managers are either blocked in the company or blocked at home. On the other hand, the market also responded too violently to the impact of the epidemic, and fell unilaterally for almost two months. This has caused those fund managers in Shanghai to suffer both physical and psychological torture. The freezing point of the
market reached its peak on April 26, 2022. That day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 2886.43 points, and after breaking through 3000 points, a rapid decline occurred. Many people say that the big bear market is coming.
That night, Xu Zhibiao of Cathay Fund was also very anxious. What he was worried about was not that the market had fallen, but that the market had fallen to an absolutely undervalued position and was worried that the fund holders would redeem it at the bottom. He wrote a letter overnight "A fund manager of a growth stock has something to say in the darkest moment."
In the letter, Xu Zhibiao admitted that this month was the most uncomfortable month since he officially managed the portfolio. For Xu Zhibiao, who has a low turnover rate, a group of growth stocks in which he holds in have grown by more than 50% in the first quarter, it is still impossible to avoid the drop in caused by market sentiment.
In this letter, Xu Zhibiao made an objective review of whether he could avoid such a big drop and how he should deal with it. He pointed out a key information: "From the perspective of growth style, the current valuation of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 is only 15.6 times and 24 times. CSI 500 Index has reached the lowest level since 2010. CSI 1000 Index has also been in the valuation quantile of 6% since 2010, so we believe that the current growth style is significantly undervalued."
is simply translated, and growth stocks represented by CSI 500 are the lowest valuation quantiles since 2010. After experiencing a decline of more than 30% at the beginning of the year in the small and medium-sized growth style, Xu Zhibiao told the entire market: Now is the best opportunity to buy growth stocks in 12 years. At this darkest moment, Xu Zhibiao chose to resist.
The market bottomed out and rebounded on April 27. What led the market was the high-quality growth stocks that were mistakenly killed by panic in the early stage. This may not be a coincidence. Xu Zhibiao's letter from the bottom has also become a good story in the market this year.
Turn the time back to the Spring Festival in 2021. One noon on the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, Cheng Zhou from Guotai Fund and a common friend and couple had lunch at Daning International . Under the New Year atmosphere, the surroundings are filled with joy.
However, Cheng Zhou's face was a little "depressed". He smiled bitterly and told me that this year was the worst start for him for so many years in the industry.
Because he did not buy the "core assets" that the market was sought after at the time, Cheng Zhou's net value lagged behind at the beginning of 2021, while the "Mao Index" on the other side was rising.
Cheng Zhou has never been a person who "butt determines the head". He used objective and rational analysis to tell me that no matter how to calculate this batch of "core assets" stocks, they are too expensive. Cheng Zhou told me that when he bought Moutai in 2016, no one paid much attention to Moutai, but was paying attention to the " asset securitization " story of various small stocks. At that time, the location of buying Moutai stocks was very comfortable. Today's Moutai has not changed much from the fundamentals when he bought it back then, but its valuation has been many times higher.
Cheng Zhou told me that there are a group of small and medium-sized companies on the market, and their performance growth rate is not worse than those of the "Mao Index", but their valuations are much cheaper.
I asked Chengzhou, didn’t you say that companies under 20 billion won’t watch it? Cheng Zhou shook his head and didn't think so. He thinks that what reflects the company's value is fundamentals and corresponding valuations, which have nothing to do with various labels or market value.
Coincidentally, that day was the highest point of the "Mao Index" and the lowest point of Chengzhou's relative returns in 2021. After the Spring Festival, the market growth stocks represented by the "Mao Index" have seen a temporary high, and Chengzhou is optimistic about small and medium-sized growth stocks to rebound.
That year, the value of Cathay Juxin managed by Chengzhou increased by 21.66%, ranking 325 out of 2125 balanced funds, ranking relatively in the top 15% of the total market (data source: Tiantian Fund Network ).
From these two short stories, we see that both fund managers of Cathay Fund choose to stick to their value in pain. When they have the ultimate market style, they have some "unsociable" but through independent judgment of value, they have become unique "scenery" in the market.
"Independent and objective, not follow the crowd" Cathay Fund's active equity
"Independent and objective, not follow the crowd" is an important feature of Cathay Fund's active equity. When it comes to "not following the crowd", we have to mention fund manager Zheng Youwei.
In the fifth season of the late night casino of Cathay Fund, Zheng Youwei had a wonderful sharing on the root of the stock market's " herd effect ":
Risk aversion is human instinct. As early as the primitive era, they faced the risk of going out to hunt. If you don't go out to hunt, you will be at risk of starvation. If you go out to hunt, you will face the risk of being eaten by wild animals. In such a risk game, what the primitive people finally thought of was a group of people going out to hunt, which greatly reduced the risk of being eaten.
This is the root cause of the "herd effect" being injected into our genes. Even in modern society, this gene from instinct has not changed. In the long river of time, the herd effect becomes an instinctive reaction of human beings to seek a sense of security.
can explain the "herd effect" in such a low-level way because Zheng Youwei studied in a university and has a professional understanding of the origin and evolution of species. This also makes Zheng Youwei better at controlling his emotions than other fund managers.
Cheng Zhou, Xu Zhibiao, and Zheng Youwei are all incompatible with the popular "grouping" in their positions. Whether it is the bull market for consumer liquor in 2020 or the bull market for new energy electric vehicles in 2021, they always maintain a balanced combination and insist on laying out some unpopular industries that are ignored by the market. The three of them will never perform particularly well at a certain stage, but they all have excellent medium and long-term performance.
Chengzhou: A reverse trader who follows the trend
Many people know that Chengzhou's investment has a certain reverse thinking. When many stocks are at the bottom, Chengzhou is buying. But if we disassemble Cheng Zhou's long-term performance, we will find that he has not performed particularly poorly in any year and is particularly headwind. This is because Cheng Zhou has a strong overall view and his investment portfolio will not "reverse the times and the general trend".
Take Cathay Juxin, which has the longest management time in Chengzhou, as an example. In the past 8 complete years, only the big bear market in 2018 has suffered losses, and the relative rankings of each year will not be too behind. I once wrote in an article that an excellent fund manager can reach a high lower limit during the wind. Cheng Zhou is a fund manager with a high and low limit.
Figure: Cathay Juxin historical performance
Data source: Tiantian Fund Network (Note: The platform adopts the latest similar rankings, and is segmented downward according to the asset dimension based on the original first-level classification)
is implemented in specific operations. Chengzhou will be somewhat reversed with the market in stages, but this reverse is in line with the changes in fundamentals.
The two operations of Cheng Zhou in 2014 and 2015 were deeper.
All of 2014, Chengzhou's heavy holdings in undervalued financial real estate were "badged" by small-cap stocks in the market for 10 months, and finally saw a collective valuation repair in the last month. In just one month, Chengzhou's ranking quickly rose from the last 50% to the top 10% at the end of the year. By 2015, Cheng Zhou was also a little behind in the beginning. That year was the craziest half year for TMTh. When it was at the top of the market, Cheng Zhou found that there was no stock to buy, so he chose to lower his position at the top of the market at the craziest time.
two reverse operations seem to be in conflict with market sentiment, and behind them are both in line with the background of the times.The liquidity easing in 2014 corresponds to the rise in market valuation levels, and Da Finance and Real Estate should benefit first. In 2015, the off-market leverage was reduced, and liquidity deteriorated, combined with the extremely high valuation bubble, holding cash is the best choice.
In the past few years, Cheng Zhou’s memory of reverse trading was a heavy holding of raw materials in the fourth quarter of 2018. As the first fund manager in the market to hold heavy investment in raw materials, Cheng Zhou did not have any medical background. He just felt that the fundamentals of the raw materials were very good and did not wear "tinted glasses" to see. Many fund managers in pharmaceutical majors miss raw materials because they put their inherent labels and regard them as a low-end manufacturing. A batch of raw materials purchased from Chengzhou at the bottom increased by several times.
Chengzhou's combination has always been particularly balanced, with industry scattered + stocks scattered. He mentioned that this is related to his "cowardly and cautious" personality. No industry or individual stock can bring 100% certainty. Cheng Zhou does not want to do his investment portfolio too extreme, and pursues more high Sharp ratios to achieve better risk-adjusted returns.
As a veteran of the Golden Bull Award, Cheng Zhou has a golden investment sentence that is well known to the market: "I think everything needs to have a price, and there is no priceless treasure in the world." His favorite book is "Cycle" by Hodward Max. The back and forth swing of pendulum is the never-changing law of the capital market.
Xu Zhibiao: A growth stock player who believes that the average return is
Xu Zhibiao is a fund manager who is easy to impress people. He is very brave to express his true thoughts in his heart, and he will not have an ambiguous view every time he broadcasts or interviews.
Xu Zhibiao’s specialness is that he is one of the few growth stock players who believe in the return of the mean. The return of the mean is not only to dare to be optimistic when the market is low, but also to know how to avoid when the market is high.
As a pharmaceutical fund manager, Xu Zhibiao once looked down on the pharmaceutical industry at a high level in a live broadcast. As early as a live broadcast in June 2021, Xu Zhibiao said this:
"The pharmaceutical industry is my old business. I was originally a pharmaceutical researcher and now I also manage a pharmaceutical theme fund Cathay Pharmaceutical Health. But recently I think if I hold a pharmaceutical theme fund, I might be more cautious. Why? I have always been thinking against the trend. Many companies that have set new highs in recent times may have had a larger bubble. Not only PE, but PS may be at a dozen times the level. So I think in this, it should be said that the risks are relatively high." Looking back, Xu Zhibiao's combination did not buy CXOs with a high valuation at the time, and the pharmaceutical industry also started from that position and entered a year-long bear market. Take Cathay Health, which Xu Zhibiao has been managing for the longest time, as an example. In the past four years, it only suffered losses in 2018, and the relative returns performance in each year is in the top 50%. Xu Zhibiao's other representative work is a full-market fund established at the end of 2019. Cathay Research Selection holds two years, and its net value has reached 1.9311 (data deadline: July 14, 2022).
Figure: Cathay Big Health historical performance
Data source: Tiantian Fund Network (Note: The platform adopts the latest similar rankings, and is segmented downward according to the asset dimension based on the original first-level classification)
Xu Zhibiao's investment framework has a cross summary: "The denominator determines the buying and selling, and the numerator determines the direction."
denominator comes from risk premium index. As a risk asset, stocks provide sufficiently attractive implicit rate of return from the perspective of major assets. Buffett once said in a speech that stocks are expensive or cheap, and should be compared with risk-free returns. Xu Zhibiao used the denominator to judge the bull and bear direction of the equity market.
molecules come from the macro cycle. When the economy is good, you should buy pro-cyclical industries, and when the economy is bad, you should buy counter-cyclical industries. The direction corresponds to the configuration of the meso-level industry.
After setting the trading and direction, it will implement bottom-up stock selection, which is also the main source of Xu Zhibiao's excess returns. Looking at Xu Zhibiao's combination, the concentration of individual stocks is very high and has distinct bottom-up characteristics.
Looking at Xu Zhibiao's investment framework in a subdivision, you will find two characteristics: balanced and moderate reverse.
Regarding balance, Xu Zhibiao also mentioned in a public interview that "the combination will accommodate some stocks that do not rise or even fall in the short term, rather than betting on one direction, not buying new energy or buying medicines all. If you do this, what is the difference between it and ETF?" Judging from the historical holding industry of Cathay Health, Xu Zhibiao should have a very wide range of stock selection.
Regarding moderate reverse, Xu Zhibiao often buys it earlier than others and sells it earlier than others. In the third quarter of 2019, Xu Zhibiao bought new energy vehicles in large quantities, which was earlier than many fund managers who looked at new energy backgrounds. However, when the entire market was optimistic about Hengrui , Xu Zhibiao did not hold a position.
Xu Zhibiao mentioned many times that he believes in the mean regression. But Xu Zhibiao is also an optimistic person. Combining it together means his investment philosophy: optimism corresponds to positive growth in the future; mean regression corresponds to bubbles that avoid high valuations.
Zheng Youwei: All-weather "football coach"
Zheng Youwei's investment has two characteristics: 1) All-weather; 2) The combination management method of football team formation. all-weather capability is Zheng Youwei's investment goal, portfolio management method, and how Zheng Youwei can achieve his goals.
Zheng Youwei's all-weather, you can perceive it from the following picture: Zheng Youwei's advantage selection of Cathay Jiangyuan, which was managed by the end of the second quarter of 2019, has achieved positive returns for 9 consecutive quarters. has positive returns in 12 full quarters of historical management, and one of the negative returns in one quarter was only adjusted by -0.48%.
Figure: Cathay Jiangyuan Advantage Selected Quarterly Performance
Data Source: Tiantian Fund Network
In the overseas asset management industry, how to manage portfolios is a profound and profound knowledge. Zheng Youwei's characteristics also lie in the ability of portfolio management. He achieved all-weather goal through a 441 combination lineup.
40% of the bottom position is the defender, achieving a bottom-line yield of 15%. This part mainly comes from mature industries with stable business models, stable demand and relatively good supply structure.
40% position is a forward, pursuing the profit elasticity of the combination, and is the main source of opening up excess returns. This part is a rotational asset with relatively high prosperity and usually pays more attention to the expansion of the demand side.
10% of the position is goalkeeper, mainly some unpopular stocks that are ignored by the market. On the basis of maintaining the integrity of the portfolio, it achieves "surprising" results.
In addition to the 441 combination management system, Zheng Youwei also has a strict stop-profit and stop-loss mechanism. Once the stock's valuation quantile reaches a historically high position, Zheng Youwei will take profit. Regarding stop loss, Zheng Youwei has stricter stop loss discipline. If the stock trend is lower than expected within half a year, he will decisively replace it.
Because A-share market fluctuates greatly, it either rises or falls too much. Zheng Youwei's portfolio management methods and trading discipline have helped him achieve "all-weather" performance in the past few years.
The selection of Cathay Jiangyuan Advantages, which has been managed by Zheng Youwei for the longest time, is ranked among the top 20% of the market every year since 2019; all products managed by Zheng Youwei have positive returns in their employment (data deadline: July 15, 2022).
Data source: Tiantian Fund Network; Data deadline: July 14, 2022
Zheng Youwei loves fishing, but has a different understanding of fishing. He believes that fishing requires patience and not to be determined in one place. When it comes to investment, Zheng Youwei has stronger flexibility.
does not bet on the track, and the balanced investment of Cathay Fund
Cheng Zhou, Xu Zhibiao, and Zheng Youwei seem to have different investment styles and portfolios, but there are similarities at the bottom of the investment philosophy, which also represents the active equity style of Cathay Fund.
Commonality 1: Believe in mean regression. They believe in the regression of mean value in their bones. Cheng Zhou and Xu Zhibiao both mentioned the average regression of the market in public live broadcasts or interviews. Zheng Youwei's stop-profit and stop-loss trading strategy also has mean regression.
Commonality 2: No betting on the track, a balanced combination construction method. They do not pursue outstanding short-term performance, but their medium- and long-term performance is very good.
These three fund managers also have a deep "mark" of Cathay Pacific. Cheng Zhou is an old employee who has worked at Cathay Pacific for 18 years. He once joked that he was still a young man when he joined Cathay Pacific, but now he is a middle-aged uncle. Xu Zhibiao was also a researcher who joined the Cathay Pacific industry. After a brief job at ABC Bank, he returned to a new chapter in Cathay Pacific's investment career. Zheng Youwei started investing in public funds from Cathay Pacific and is currently in charge of Cathay Pacific research.
does not bet on the track and balanced investment is also what Cathay Fund has always advocated.
track investment has been the mainstream investment method for A shares in the past few years. Most of the fund managers 10 years ago were all-weather style, while most of the fund managers 10 years later were segmented track style.
explores the deep reasons behind the investigation, there are two main reasons: 1) Today, the number of funds has reached tens of thousands, and only if the "label" is clear enough and the product is extreme enough can it be recognized; 2) If you bet on the track in the short term, it will bring extremely high returns and the scale will expand rapidly.
track investment sometimes reflects "agent risk". When managers are at the track, they can quickly expand their scale and earn management fees, and when the track vent passes, the biggest loss is the holder. "Agent risk" corresponds to the mismatch between the risk and return of the holder and the manager.
The investment style of the active equity team of Cathay Fund is "not betting on the track, balanced investment". We hope to "strive investors to a more stable base-holding experience in this way." We believe that behind this investment style is based on the interests of holders and strive to maximize the fund investment returns of holders.
We know that when selling funds, there is a line of words "Past returns do not represent the future." But many ordinary holders do not understand the true meaning of this sentence.
Suppose you see a fund that has obtained a 40% return in the past year, and you usually think that the fund's return can be repeated. But if the fund's income mainly comes from beta in a certain track, once the beta goes down, it may lead to a large adjustment in the net value of the product, which will eventually make the holder lose money.
In comparison, fund manager Alpha's abilities will be more stable than industry betas. Through more balanced allocation, the source of fund yield is mainly the alpha of fund managers' stock selection, so the net value fluctuations in the product will be lower in competition-type products, making it easier for holders to make money.
There is no track that is eternally upward and non-volatility in the market (if there is, active fund managers will be replaced by index funds on a single track).
Cathay Fund emphasizes that "not betting on the track, balanced investment" is a correct value. Doing so will inevitably lead to certain loss of the management scale brought about by short-term performance explosion, but in a long run, asset management company , which truly puts the interests of holders first, can gain long-term trust.
In fact, we have seen that Cathay Pacific Fund has been in the "difficult to do" stage at the bottom of the market many times, issuing products:
Cathay Internet+ issued after the "stock market crash" in 2015, with a yield of 242.70% since its establishment (data end: June 30, 2022; data source: Cathay Internet+ Stock Fund 2022 Quarterly Report).
Cathay Health, issued after the "circuit break" in 2016, has a yield of 289.12% since its establishment (data ends: June 30, 2022; data source: Cathay Health Stock Fund 2022 Quarterly Report).
Cathay Value Preferred, issued at the bottom of the market in 2018, has a yield of 231.37% since its establishment (data ends: June 30, 2022; data source: Cathay Value Preferred Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund 2022 Quarterly Report).
The products issued in the sluggish market of these products are not large in the initial scale, but they have truly brought generous returns to holders.
does not pursue the short-term extreme, but needs to be stable for a long time
0 The establishment of Cathay Pacific Fund is a milestone in the history of China's capital market development. In October 1997, the " Interim Measures for the Management of Securities Investment Funds " was issued, paving the way for the establishment of public funds.On March 5, 1998, Cathay Fund was established as the first fund company in Chinese history. At that time, a total of 10 fund companies were established in 1998 and 1999, and they were collectively called "Old Ten".
The establishment of the "Old Ten" fund companies is the first batch of institutional investors in the A-share market in the true sense, and has also promoted the market to transform from the "manager era" in that year to the subsequent fundamental investment model. After that, institutional investors continued to grow, pushing the A-share market to gradually mature, developing into the second largest capital market in the world today, and attracting a large number of overseas investors.
, which has been established for more than 20 years, has always adhered to a culture of steady development. Internally, Cathay Fund does not encourage the extreme investment, and externally, Cathay Fund does not create a top-notch culture. Within Cathay Fund, there are many long-term running players with moderate management scale, outstanding long-term excess returns, and able to maintain the lower limit during the headwind period.
In the assessment of fund managers, Cathay Fund is also a well-known loose culture in the industry:
First of all, fund managers have a lot of freedom to invest.
Secondly, Cathay Fund uses long-term performance to evaluate fund managers and will not be laid off because of poor short-term performance of fund managers.
In the inheritance of the investment system, Cathay Fund adopts the model of old fund managers leading newcomers. For example, a group of new fund managers promoted by Cathay Pacific this year have learned investment by co-managing products with old fund managers. In this way, senior fund managers pass on their understanding of investment.
, which pursues balanced investment, is a "clear stream of the asset management industry today."
, the asset management industry needs long-term trust
, In the asset management industry, many people will blindly pursue short-term scale expansion, but ignore a fundamental problem: the asset side and the responsible side are matched. If the asset expansion cannot be taken over with the ability to exceed returns, then today's assets will become future liabilities.
In history, we have seen many such cases. The fund's scale was 100 million when it was 1 yuan, and when it was 3 yuan, it became 10 billion. In the end, Beta peaked from 3 yuan to 2 yuan. Even though the corresponding net value starting point of this fund still rose by 100%, most customers came in at high levels, and the loss ratio was much greater than profit.
Short-term assets will become long-term liabilities one day, seriously affecting the company's long-term reputation. The core of the asset management industry is trust in external operations. Building trust is a long process. It's like a snowball, the more powerful it gets behind it. On the contrary, it only takes a moment to destroy trust.
From the investment system of three fund managers of Cathay Fund, Cheng Zhou, Xu Zhibiao and Zheng Youwei, it can also reflect the long-term values of Cathay Fund: insist on doing the right and difficult things constantly, not betting on short-term explosive power, but strive to achieve long-term outstanding performance.
Just a few days ago, the list of the 17th China Fund Industry Star Fund Awards hosted by Securities Times , Morningstar Information, Shanghai Securities and China Galaxy Securities , and China Galaxy Securities provided data support and research support was grandly announced. Cathay Fund won the Top Ten Star Fund Company Award in 2021, as well as its two products, Cathay Jiangyuan Advantages (Note: This product is managed by Zheng Youwei) and Cathay Juxin Value Advantages (Note: This product is managed by Chengzhou) respectively won the three-year continuous return flexible allocation hybrid star fund award and the seven-year continuous return flexible allocation hybrid star fund award.
This also proves again that if you do the right thing for a long time, you will definitely get the reward you deserve in the end!
Risk warning: The views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or commitment. The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. Cathay Juxin Value Advantage Mixed A was established on 2013.12.17, 2017-2021 Growth rate/performance benchmark (%): 13.46/17.32, -25.78/-19.66, 60.25/29.43, 66.75/22.61, 21.06/-3.12. Cathay Health Stock was established on 2016.02.03, 2017-2021 Growth Rate/Sales Benchmark (%): 23.54/2.83, -23.45/-27.80, 81.60/16.06, 55.59/18.38, 20.51/0.34.Guotai Jiangyuan Advantage was established on March 19, 2018, with growth rate/performance benchmark (%) from 2018 to 2021: -31.48/-10.60, 48.86/19.92, 85.10/15.20, 31.58/0.30. The above funds are stock and mixed, with expected returns and expected risks higher than those of money market and bonds. Investors should read the fund legal documents carefully before purchasing. my country's fund operation time is short, and the fund's past performance does not represent future performance. Funds are risky and investments should be cautious.
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