The Fed's September interest rate meeting is approaching. Before the answer to the mystery of whether to raise interest rates will be revealed, the market debate will not stop, especially the uneven US economic data has further aggravated the market's fluctuations, and the time point for interest rate hikes is still in the fog.
Although the GDP growth rate is not bad and the labor market has improved further, the growth rate of wages and prices is not as high as expected. The wage growth index only maintained 2.1%, while the employment cost index unexpectedly declined in the second quarter, with core personal consumption spending hitting a four-year low of 1.24%. Some analysts said the unemployment rate has decreased, but it is expected that most of this may be offset by the Fed's downgrading its structural unemployment rate target. The Fed's path to real GDP growth, inflation, and long-term interest rate may all be slightly lowered at this meeting. Even so, the Fed's interest rate is expected to be higher than the market's forward interest rate, which the market now believes is 2%. This may be too low, but this problem may not be clearly resolved in the next few years. Therefore, no matter from the perspectives of economic data, financial market tensions, or the logic of recent speeches by Fed officials, the Federal Reserve shows no signs of interest rate hikes in September.
The hawks gave negative opinions on the dovish argument, while San Francisco Fed Chairman Williams proposed a rate hike this morning, expressing optimism about the outlook for the US economy, and the US labor market has made significant progress, which is undeniable. The United States is close to full employment. Economic data, including non-agricultural data in August, all indicate that the economy is in a good state and has good momentum. Given that the labor market is in a decrease in idleness. It is believed that output growth is stable, the unemployment rate continues to decline, and the United States is close to hikes. So far, it is exciting in terms of US economic data. Williams believes that economic data is as good as he expected, and even better than he expected, indicating that the US economy is recovering well.
Although the US released its August non-farm report mixed, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jeffrey Lacker, who supports interest rate hikes, commented that non-farm employment growth in August is reasonably strong, wages and productivity pace are consistent, and interest rate hikes seem to have been met. Now is the time to end the zero-rate era. He believes that short-term market volatility has limited impact on the US economy. Although the domestic economy has not yet reached a perfect state, it does not affect interest rate policy adjustments. Now is the time to align monetary policy with the economy. Wages have been consistent with productivity recently, and the job market no longer supports extremely low interest rates, and the conditions for the Fed's interest rate hike appear to have been met.
Technical analysis:
AUDUSD:
After oversold, the Australian dollar continued to conduct technical adjustments yesterday. The Asian market fluctuated and rebounded after the opening. After the New York session recovered 0.7000, it continued to expand its gains. Finally, the K-line closed up and the mid-to-date moving average was diverging upward, and the medium- and long-term moving averages were basically flattened. The oscillator indicator tended to run overbought zone, and the short-term tended to fluctuate.
From the perspective of cycle relationship:
1, the daily short-term moving average turns slightly, and the medium- and long-term moving average is under pressure above. At present, the upper side is facing resistance test in the 0.7070-80 area. Only after breaking through can the upward space be further opened, otherwise it will continue to fall into downward adjustment. 4H tested the 0.6920 line again yesterday to obtain support and continued to rebound, but the upper part is close to the key resistance area before the daily line. Beware of highs and falling back, and faces direction choices in the short term.
2. The hourly chart broke through 0.6950 yesterday and turned long. At present, the short-term moving average diverges upward, with the support below the medium and long-term moving average. The exchange rate is basically running between the Bollinger's middle and upper tracks, and the short-term bulls are temporarily dominant.
3. Daily oscillation adjustment, 4H faces direction choice, 1H oscillation is too high, and the directions of each cycle are different, so be cautious about oscillation reappears.
Today's upper resistance: 0.7090, 0.7140, 0.7190, today's lower support 0.7010, 0.6960, 0.6910.
Gold :
Market sentiment is cautious, gold continues to maintain narrow range fluctuations, yesterday's Asian market fluctuated and rebounded after opening, and the European session fluctuated very little. Until the New York market opened, the upper reaches the 1126 line and then fell downward. Finally, the K-line closed at the upper and lower shadow line small positive lines. From the 4H point of view, the short-term moving average gathered, the medium- and long-term moving average was under pressure, the oscillation indicator was higher, and the short-term tended to fluctuate.
From the perspective of cycle relationship:
1. The daily line rebounded slightly yesterday, but on the upper side, the resistance of MA5 first-line surged and fell. At present, the upper and lower rails of Bollinger have slightly expanded. On the upper side, the resistance test in the 1128-30 area can be continued. Otherwise, the rebound will continue to be restored, otherwise it will continue to return to the downward adjustment. At present, the Bollinger upper rails constitute the primary resistance for rebound, and the upper and lower rails are basically flat. Be careful not to surge and fall in the short term.
2. The hourly chart recovered 1121 yesterday and was more likely to be high, but on the upper side, the short-term moving average turned downward, the upper and lower tracks of Bollinger narrowed slightly, and there is a risk of technical adjustment in the short term.
3. Daily line oscillation and adjustment, 4H faces direction choices, 1H temporarily has the advantage, beware of highs falling, and be cautious about chasing highs and chasing highs.
Today's upper resistance: 1127, 1133, 1139, today's lower support 1118, 1113, 1107.
From the perspective of cycle relationship:
1. The daily line rebounded slightly yesterday, but on the upper side, the resistance of MA5 first-line surged and fell. At present, the upper and lower rails of Bollinger have slightly expanded. On the upper side, the resistance test in the 1128-30 area can be continued. Otherwise, the rebound will continue to be restored, otherwise it will continue to return to the downward adjustment. At present, the Bollinger upper rails constitute the primary resistance for rebound, and the upper and lower rails are basically flat. Be careful not to surge and fall in the short term.
2. The hourly chart recovered 1121 yesterday and was more likely to be high, but on the upper side, the short-term moving average turned downward, the upper and lower tracks of Bollinger narrowed slightly, and there is a risk of technical adjustment in the short term.
3. Daily line oscillation and adjustment, 4H faces direction choices, 1H temporarily has the advantage, beware of highs falling, and be cautious about chasing highs and chasing highs.
Today's upper resistance: 1127, 1133, 1139, today's lower support 1118, 1113, 1107.
