"The Taoyuan mayoral election is generally in a stalemate, and the turnout rate will be the key factor in determining the outcome. But after Lin Zhijian was forced to withdraw from the election, the DPP was at a relatively disadvantage. As long as the Kuomintang candidate Zhang Shanzheng can actively attack and defend in the remaining time, showing his charm, and the chance of winning the election is higher. On the contrary, if Zhang Shanzheng cannot urge the votes against the DPP, the DPP candidate Zheng Yunpeng will not rule out the possibility of reversal."
Regarding the direction of the Taoyuan mayoral election, Niu Xuting, an independent member of Taoyuan who has withdrawn from the Kuomintang, shared his unique observations with his personal experience of running at the grassroots level.
The Battle of Taoyuan Mayor is the most critical battle for the attack and defense of blue and green on the "nine-in-one" election in Taiwan at the end of the year, and it is also the most important indicator for evaluating the victory or defeat of blue and green on the contrary, and it will affect the future political trend of Zheng Wencan. Especially after former Hsinchu mayor Lin Zhijian switched to Taoyuan to run for election, but was forced to withdraw from the election due to the "paper plagiarism gate", the battle for Taoyuan mayors has attracted more and more attention.
Niu Xuting, who is seeking re-election of parliament, said that his overall feeling during the grassroots vote was that "the election situation is very cold". The main reason is that after the "paper plagiarism" battle, the voters seemed discouraged and had no special preferences or interests in the blue and green hour Zhang Shanzheng, Zheng Yunpeng, and the candidates of the People's Party , Lai Xiangling, and non-party Hou Yuanren Zheng Baoqing . "So, I think the turnout rate will be the key factor affecting the final result."
Taoyuan City non-party member Niu Xuting
Niu Xuting further analyzed and pointed out that Zheng Yunpeng's greatest energy is based on the current mayor Zheng Wencan. However, after experiencing Lin Zhijian's "paper plagiarism door", people further recognized that the integrity and morality of the DPP politicians had problems; after the earthquake, the ceiling of the badminton court on the 5th floor of Taoyuan Bade Sports Center fell, and the problems in the construction of public works were further exposed, and Zheng Wencan's five-star mayor's character collapsed. Under this situation, Zheng Yunpeng's candidacy is equivalent to confronting all forces opposing the DPP. It is very difficult and it is not easy to completely reverse it.
Judging from the polls, Zhang Shanzheng's support has always been stable, but this stability is not enough to make him elected. Niu Xuting believes that if Zhang Shanzheng can "actively attack and defend" in the future, highlight his personal charm by constantly throwing out topics, and urge and concentrate votes that "hate the DPP" and "oppose the DPP", then he will eventually "flew over low" and win the election very high.
But Niu Xuting also emphasized that this does not mean that Zheng Yunpeng has no chance at all. If Zhang Shanzheng cannot "active offense and defense", he will still maintain his previous "Buddhist" style of play and cannot show his charm. In addition, Lai Xiangling and Zheng Baoqing, who are also "opportunistic", share the votes, the DPP may rely on the ruling resources and basic foundation to allow Zheng Wencan to win the reversal and defend the key seat of Taoyuan City.
(Wu Shenglin, reporter of Straits Guide in Taiwan)
