On September 15, the US ban on Huawei was about to take effect. Analytical agency Trendforce conducted a brief analysis and prediction on the global semiconductor market after losing its "Huawei order", which also triggered a lot of discussion:
mobile phone-related chips are the first to be hit:
- application processor (AP)
is full of confidence and has prepared a large amount of goods. MediaTek, which is preparing to do a big move, will be the biggest victim.
Although they have adjusted their market strategy and regard Chinese brands other than Huawei as their target market for 2021, this is very difficult because Qualcomm's mid-to-high and low-end processors integrated with 5G will be shipped on a large scale at the latest in the fourth quarter; on the other hand, in the lowest-end mobile application processor market, no one can beat the Unigroup Zhanrui, which is famous for shipment at a bargain price.
- RF chip:
The "spare tire" that Huawei found last year - Taiwan Richwave is now the main supplier of Huawei routers. They said that it is not a big problem to ship Wifi6 chips that do not contain American technology;
- fingerprint recognition chip:
mainly comes from two major domestic suppliers: Huiding Technology and Zhaoyi Innovation (acquired Siliwei).
Since their manufacturing uses commercial foundries (mainly SMIC), they cannot get rid of the restrictions of US technology and will definitely not be able to supply Huawei. In addition, the competition in this field is very fierce, and the gross profit margin is very thin (for example, the shipment price of the HSBC has dropped from the peak of 61 yuan in 2015 to around 6 yuan).
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- TDDI (touch and display driver integrated chip):
Two Taiwanese manufacturers: Lianyong Technology and Duntai Technology are sure to be unavailable, but Lianyong and Huitong are similar. Due to the wide variety of products and a large number of global customers, the financial impact is not great; but Duntai focuses on the TDDI field and is mainly working in the Chinese market. It needs to find new customers to make up for Huawei's orders, which will have a great impact.
- CMOS image sensor:
The demand for smartphones and automotive electronics markets is weak, and sales have fallen by 1.3%. In addition, the reason why neither can supply Huawei, sales in the whole market continue to be lowered to 1.5%.
- memory chip:
Since NAND and DRAM are both standard products, the theoretical impact will not be too great. However, the memory chip industry has always had rumors of overcapacity, and the future market is unpredictable. In terms of
foundry:
TSMC orders are relatively saturated and the impact will not be too great;
SMIC and Taiwan Wenmao (gallium arsenide radio frequency product) will be greatly affected, especially SMIC. In addition to the direct influence of Huawei, other design companies affected by the ban that cannot supply Huawei may also cut orders accordingly.
5G base station:
Since Huawei has begun to replace the self-developed baseband chip - Tiangang, this will not have much impact on the global market.
However, since Tiangang uses TSMC's 7nm process, it cannot continue to produce in the future. However, the previous news is that Huawei has already stocked a lot, and it is expected that by 2021, Huawei's inventory of 5G base station chips will be basically enough.
Optical Network:
All along, RF components in this field have relied heavily on US suppliers, but since last year's sanctions, Huawei has changed to Japan's Murata and Sumitomo as their main suppliers.
Most of Japan's semiconductor products are in the IDM mode, and this type of RF communication products generally use older mature processes and do not rely on advanced processes. In the past 30 years, Japan has accumulated a lot of accumulation from semiconductor equipment to raw materials, and has basically achieved self-sufficiency in mature processes. Therefore, the "de-U.S." has achieved remarkable results, and the supply chain in optical communications is basically not affected by the United States.
Last
Overall, since the ban's tentacles point to the commercial foundry that focuses on global procurement of equipment, especially advanced process processes, cannot get rid of their dependence on the United States in some links, the mobile phone-related chip field that is highly dependent on advanced processes will be greatly impacted.
Since Japan and Europe can achieve high independent supply in mature processes, such as RF components, sensors and other application-specific integrated circuits, the supply of communication equipment will not have much impact, so the United States mainly uses political means for Huawei's equipment business, such as prohibiting the use of Huawei equipment in 5G networks. However, this market is also supported by the domestic market, and the situation is much better than the mobile phone business where even chip supply has been cut off.
Before, many people thought that mobile phones were just Huawei's side business. In fact, this was not the case. Last year, consumer business accounted for more than 50% of Huawei's overall revenue. Once the ban was not relaxed, it would definitely suffer a heavy blow.
As Apple's industrial chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said on August 30: "The best situation is that Huawei's market share decreases, and the worst situation is that Huawei withdraws from the mobile phone market." All this depends on the time of sanctions, but for the entire industrial chain, there must be a strong chain reaction. After all, Huawei's mobile phone shipments are huge. It has surpassed Samsung in the second quarter of this year and became the world's number one. It is impossible to say that there is no impact. Many suppliers who expand production and stocking need to pay for the fluctuations in this market share, which will inevitably aggravate the differentiation of the industry structure.
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