A new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on October 10, but there is a high possibility of "stracking".
The price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it is expected that the price adjustment is "strapped" in this round of refined oil price adjustment window. According to the current oil price management Measures , if this price adjustment is "strapped", the unrevised amount will be included in the accumulated or offset during the next price adjustment.
Domestic refined oil prices are highly correlated with international crude oil prices. Recently, the crude oil futures prices in the international market have risen for five consecutive trading days mainly due to factors such as OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries' decision to cut production by 2 million barrels per day. The moving average price of international crude oil on the 10th began to rebound from the low point at the beginning of the month, and the decline was gradually narrowing compared with the moving average price on the previous 10 days.
Tonglian data shows that on October 7, the futures prices of New York WTI and London Brent crude oil were US$92.64 and US$97.92 per barrel, respectively, up US$13.15 and US$9.96 respectively compared with September 30, with an increase of 16.54% and 11.32% respectively.
Affected by this, the price of Singapore fuel oil also rose sharply, with the price of low-sulfur MOPS rising by US$59/ton, and the price of high-sulfur 380 fuel oil MOPS rising by US$24.95/ton.
In terms of fundamentals, OPEC's production cuts exceeded expectations recently, and US crude oil and refined oil inventories have declined, continuously pushing up the price of crude oil .
Specifically, in addition to OPEC's decision to reduce the agreement production by 2 million barrels per day from November 2022. Data released by the US EIA showed that changes in commercial crude oil inventories in the week ending September 30 actually decreased by 1.356 million barrels, an expected increase of 2.052 barrels, and the previous value decreased by 215,000 barrels; gasoline inventories actually decreased by 4.728 million barrels, an expected decrease of 1.334 million barrels, and the previous value decreased by 2.422 million barrels; refined oil inventories actually decreased by 3.443 million barrels, an expected decrease of 1.367 barrels, and the previous value decreased by 2.891 million barrels.
In addition to the upcoming price adjustment, the domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted 18 times since this year, including 11 ups and 7 downs. According to the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, based on the analysis and forecast of multiple institutions, the average international crude oil price in this round has dropped slightly compared with the previous round. In addition, exchange rate changes are also considered.
ZhuochuangZhuochuang Information Finished Oil Analyst Dai Tiandong told First Financial that during this pricing cycle, the domestic reference crude oil change rate gradually changed from negative to positive. The calculation results show that the closing on October 7th, the domestic reference crude oil change rate for the 9th working day was 0.19%, and gasoline and diesel are expected to increase by 10 yuan/ton. Since the adjustment range of this round of calculation has not exceeded the 50 yuan/ton adjustment red line, this round of retail price limit for refined oil will not be adjusted. The price adjustment window is 24:00 on October 10, which will be the first time that the domestic retail price limit for refined oil has been stranded since this year.
The current output cuts exceeding expectations have had a strong boosting effect on international crude oil prices. CITIC Futures chief energy analyst Gui Chenxi analyzed that if other variables are not considered, the current oil price center may exceed US$100 per barrel. The upward trend depends highly on the duration of OPEC's production cuts. If it is implemented for only two months, the impact will be relatively limited; if it continues until the whole year of next year, it will continue to push up oil prices.
In addition, in terms of diesel wholesale, Dai Tiandong mentioned that in recent days, the main units of China's main units have seen restricted sales and reluctance to sell, and international crude oil has risen for five consecutive working days, and the market is bullish, so the price of diesel in China's main units has been mostly sold at local in-place prices recently. In terms of gasoline, as terminal gasoline ends at the end of the holiday, gasoline demand may gradually slow down, and domestic gasoline prices will show a volatile trend overall. As the temperature in the north continues to fall, demand for refined oil will be curbed to a certain extent.
