semiconductor inventory is very risky! Foreign capital issued TSMC rating first shot
TSMC (2330) fundamentals have grown. After the foreign investment circle sang a lot, the latest report stated that it was worried that the adjustment of semiconductor inventory will impact TSMC 's performance declined in the first quarter of next year, and took the lead in lowering the investment rating to "hold", and adjusted the target price to 400 yuan, and the first shot of the king's rating was reduced! The negative impact and the weakness of Asian stocks, TSMC fell 2% in the early trading today, dragging the market to break through the monthly line by 12,750 points.
analysis report uses "The last giant that has not been defeated yet?" as the main benchmark for TSMC , directly pointing out that the industrial inventory risks are difficult for even the power king to escape unscathed. Semiconductor industry analysts pointed out that the previous wave of Intel major orders is expected to be favorable for outsourcing, which will boost TSMC and TSMC have a strong rise, but Yamato Capital expects that Intel orders will be officially issued to TSMC in 2022. In contrast, the risk of semiconductor inventory adjustment will appear from the end of the year to next year, and the prospect can be said to be "long long but hollow."
Experts pointed out that Intel will use TSMC nanometers in the next year to produce its own flagship CPU chip called Meteor Lake. Related orders can additionally drive TSMC's annual revenue to increase by 6%, about US$2.6 billion. In addition, if Intel is fully outsourcing, the potential revenue will reach US$13 billion, which is equivalent to 30% of the revenue of TSMC in 2020. Yamato’s target price of TSMC in these two situations is estimated to be 440 yuan and 520 yuan respectively.
Experts analyzed that Intel orders have not arrived yet, TSMC will face the risk of semiconductor inventory adjustment first. The foreign investment circle has previously discussed Huawei's ban, which may lead to a decline in smart phone sales and a rise in industrial inventory, but most people believe that TSMC's advanced process is leading and should not be affected too much.
Experts believe that although TSMC will not show inventory adjustment impacts like other semiconductor manufacturers in the fourth quarter, the impact will only emerge a little later. The outlook for TSMC in the first quarter of next year may be lower than the forecast. However, in the subsequent growth of TSMC 5G and HPC orders in will still regain growth momentum. To this end, Yamato will upcome the forecast of TSMC per share for this year's pure profit forecast of 5%, and downcome the forecast of 5% next year.
financial experts' latest estimate of TSMC 2020-2022 pure profit per share is 18.9 yuan, 18.5 yuan, and 21.7 yuan, and will turn from growth to "recession" in 2021. I am still optimistic about TSMC in the long term, but now the stock price has risen to around 450 yuan, which fully reflects that Intel is more favorable and not much higher than the upper level; the investment rating is downgraded.
