Reporter of the Economic Business: Yang Jian Reporter of the Economic Business Business: Peng Shuiping
National Day holiday ends, and A-shares will open tomorrow. During the holiday, the peripheral markets soar, especially the US stocks market rose first and then fell, and finally "had a loneliness." What impact will this situation in the external market have on A-shares that are about to open?
Many securities companies have sent bullish signals, among which Everbright Securities believes that the bottoming out in October is accumulating momentum, and the market is expected to see the turning point in the fourth quarter; Guojin Securities also spoke out: the market bottomed out for the second time, and the market ushered in the turning point .
From the news perspective, the non-farm employment data in the United States in September was stronger than expected, causing the US stock market to "double-killing stocks and bonds". In addition, OPEC lowered total oil production by 2 million barrels per day, which also poured cold water on the US stock market's efforts to fight inflation. In addition, the implementation of the digital RMB cross-border payment settlement project participated by the five major banks in has also become a hot topic for the holiday .
Image source: Photo Network-401005182
(I) The U.S. non-farm employment data in September was stronger than expected. OPEC lowered its total oil output by 2 million barrels per day
NO.1 power semiconductor sales are expected to grow by 11% in 2022, and are expected to reach US$24.5 billion in 2022, setting a record high for the sixth consecutive time, mainly because its average sales price has increased the highest in the semiconductor field in more than a decade.
NO.2 The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September non-agricultural data , with 263,000 new non-agricultural employment, and the unemployment rate of fell by 0.2% to 3.5%, significantly better than the market expectation 3.7% ; 263,000 new non-agricultural employment, significantly better than the market expectation 250,000. The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in September was 52, with an expected value of 51.8, and the previous value of 51.8.
NO.3 OPEC's 45th Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee Meeting and the 33rd Ministerial Meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries were recently held. It was decided that from November, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries will reduce the total oil output by 2 million barrels per day, which is the largest production cut since "OPEC+" agreed to significantly reduce production at the beginning of the new crown epidemic in 2020.
NO.4 The world's second largest DRAM factory SK Hynix will cut capital expenditures of 70 to 80% of in 2023. After Micron and Kioxia cut nearly 30% of capital expenditures in 2023, SK Hynix is currently the semiconductor manufacturer with the largest correction in capital expenditures. In the industry's view, there has been a clear oversupply in the field of memory chips. The market will go through a long stage of digesting inventory in the future.
NO.5 According to CCTV reports, the Russian business consulting website quoted Moscow Exchange data. On October 3, the Moscow Exchange completed a total of 64,900 T+1 RMB/rouble transactions, with a transaction amount of 70.3 billion rubles, and 29,500 US dollars/rouble transactions on the same day, with a transaction amount of 68.2 billion rubles. RMB trading volume surpassed the US dollar for the first time on the Moscow Exchange, becoming the largest foreign currency trading volume on the exchange.
NO.6 China Automobile Industry Association According to the weekly data of key enterprises, the sales of automobiles in September 2022 were 2.519 million units, a month-on-month increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 21.3% ; from January to September 2022, the sales of automobiles were 19.379 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. Tesla car delivery volume in the third quarter was 343,800, and the market estimate was 357,900. In September, BYD's new energy vehicle sales were 201,259 vehicles, compared with 71,099 vehicles in the same period last year; in September, Ideal Auto delivered a total of 11,531 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 62.5%, and in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 26,524 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%; in September, Leapmotor delivered 11,039 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of more than 200%.
NO.7 The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Strengthening the Construction of High-skilled Talent Teams in the New Era" proposed that by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the scale of skilled talents will continue to grow, the quality will steadily improve, the structure will continue to be optimized, and the income will increase steadily. The proportion of skilled talents in employment will reach more than 30%, the proportion of high-skilled talents in skilled talents will reach 1/3, and the proportion of high-skilled talents in eastern provinces will reach 35%; the efforts to cultivate urgently needed high-skilled talents. Implement a high-skilled leading talent cultivation plan based on the demand for high-skilled talents in major national strategies, major projects, major projects and key industries.Support manufacturing enterprises to implement manufacturing skills foundation projects around transformation and upgrading and industrial base reconstruction projects.
NO.8 The State Council issued a reply on agreeing to temporarily adjust the implementation of relevant administrative regulations in Tianjin, Shanghai, Hainan and Chongqing, and agreed to temporarily adjust the implementation of the relevant provisions of the " Travel Agency Regulations " and " Interim Regulations on Registration and Management of Private Non-Enterprise Units" in relevant provinces and cities from now until April 8, 2024. Foreign-invested travel agencies established and qualifying in Shanghai and Chongqing are allowed to engage in outbound tourism business except Taiwan; is relaxed in Tianjin, Hainan Province, and Chongqing, private non-enterprise units that donate foreign funds to organize non-profit nursing homes.
NO.9 The Central Bank International Department released the article "Deeply promote high-quality opening of the financial industry and actively participate in global economic and financial governance" . It stated that in the next step, the People's Bank of China will continue to deepen the high-quality opening of the financial industry in accordance with the requirements of building a new development pattern of "dual circulation", benchmark and high standards, form a systematic and institutional open situation, build a solid and solid financial security network, and safeguard the road of opening up. At the same time, the People's Bank of China will continue to constructively participate in global economic and financial governance and international financial cooperation, and make due contributions to global financial stability.
(II) Sentimental fermentation in sectors: The digital RMB cross-border payment settlement project participated by the five major state-owned banks was implemented
NO.1On October 5, Global Banking Financial Telecommunications Association (SWIFT) announced its experimental results for cross-border payments on its official website Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) . After an eight-month trial of different technologies and currencies, the agency formulated the global central bank digital currency (CBDC) network planning . It is reported that in addition to France and the German Central Bank participating in this trial, there are HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank , UBS Group, Wells Fargo , a total of 14 central bank and global commercial banks, aiming to study how central bank digital currencies are used internationally, and even converted into fiat currencies when needed. According to CCTV reports, Russian business consulting website cited data from the Moscow Exchange. On October 3, the RMB trading volume exceeded the US dollar for the first time on the Moscow Exchange, becoming the largest foreign currency trading volume on the exchange.
Comment: Currently, about 90% of the world's central bank are exploring or studying central bank digital currencies, aiming to improve the efficiency of the current payment system; we also hope to explore actively responding to the regulatory challenges brought by cryptocurrencies. Recently, good news has also been heard in the cross-border payment field of central bank digital currency. The digital RMB cross-border payment and settlement project, the multilateral central bank digital currency bridge, participated by the five state-owned banks of "Industrial, Peasants and China Establishment of Diplomacy" - was officially launched in recently. This time, 20 commercial banks from 4 places successfully completed the multi-scenario payment and settlement business for customers based on cross-border trade for the first time on the platform. concept stock includes Changliang Technology, Tianyang Technology, Zhongke Jiangnan, Zhongke Jincai , Shenzhou Information and other .
NO.2 On October 1, on Tesla's 2022 AI Day, Tesla's first mass-produced humanoid robot, Optimus, was unveiled on . It can carry items, water flowers, etc. As the robot achieves mass production in the future, the selling price will be around 20,000 US dollars after the cost drops. In addition, Tesla also released the latest advancements in FSD (full autonomous driving capability) and Dojo supercomputer . Humanoid robots are intelligent robots with similar body structures and movement patterns as humans. Humanoid robots should ultimately have a body structure similar to humans, perform various operations with multiple fingers, and have a certain degree of cognitive and decision-making intelligence.
Comments: humanoid robot is the most technically difficult intelligent robot, and is a comprehensive embodiment of high-end technologies in the fields of mechanical design, motion control , artificial intelligence and other fields. The technical difficulty lies in imitating the process of "perception-cognition-decision-decision-execution" in various scenarios of humans as much as possible, involving cutting-edge technologies such as bionic perception, biomechanical and electromechanical integration, artificial intelligence technology, and depth navigation.It is undoubtedly a long-term benefit for related listed companies. Concept stocks include Danghong Technology, UC De , Sichuan University Zhisheng , Allianz Ruishi, Green Deep Pupil, etc.
(III) The latest analysis of top brokers
Everbright Securities: The bottoming out in October is accumulating momentum, and the market is expected to see a turning point in the fourth quarter
Core problem 1: market is in the bottom range under "internal concerns". The current market valuation has approached the bottom valuation range of the market since the epidemic, but it is still higher than the bottom position at the end of 2018 or before. We believe that weak fundamentals are the core issues facing the market. If the market problems are still dominated by "internal concerns", then the current market valuation may have fully reflected pessimistic expectations, and the market has a very high cost-effectiveness in its current position. External risks may be the reason for further market volatility.
Core question 2: What pressure is still facing in the market? The domestic economy is still in a slow recovery period under the dual influence of real estate and the epidemic, and after July, it entered a more moderate recovery period. Under the dual influence of real estate and the epidemic, the economic growth center is still significantly lower than the pre-epidemic level. In addition, overseas pressure in the short term will also have a continuous impact on the market.
Core question 3: When will the market see a turning point? is expected to see a turning point in the fourth quarter. After the epidemic gradually subsides, consumption, energy, exports and real estate that are gradually recovering may bring about an accelerated recovery in economic fundamentals, and overseas risk factors may also gradually subside, jointly promoting market upward.
After intensive adjustments in the early stage, the market is currently at a low valuation level. We believe that it has a high cost-effectiveness at present, but the future rise may not be achieved overnight. At the current position, the market may still go through a period of bottoming out process. The market in may usher in the medium-term turning point in in the fourth quarter.
Industry configuration: It is expected that the market style may shift to consumer style and market sector . my country's epidemic prevention policies may be further relaxed in the later stage, and the prosperity of the consumer sector is expected to usher in a rebound. Driven by the rising expectations of relaxation of epidemic prevention policies, the market conditions of the consumer sector may be launched in advance, which is worth actively planning; in addition, from the bottom-up perspective, liquor, energy storage, pharmaceutical and biology, automobiles, Internet media and other industries are also worth actively paying attention to .
Guojin Securities: The market bottomed out after the second bottoming, the market ushered in a turning point
1, The market bottomed out after the second bottoming, the market ushered in a turning point . After experiencing a rebound from May to June, the market has shown a relatively weak pattern since the third quarter. However, the market index represented by , Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, was continuously adjusted in the early stage, while small and medium-sized stocks remained relatively strong during the period. It was precisely because of the relatively strong market of small and medium-sized stocks that covered up the overall market weakness. From early July to late August, the relatively strong market for small-cap stocks was just a spreading market and did not have the support of new industrial trends. Since late August, there has been a lack of support from new industry trends, and under uncertainty in performance, the market for small stocks has come as scheduled.
2. Core pricing: Domestic performance exceeded expectations, while overseas tightening expectations eased . Domestic: profit margin improvement may perform particularly significantly in the third quarter report . Based on the improvement of the interim profit margin, against the backdrop of the sharp drop in commodity at the end of June and early July, the gross profit margins of listed companies in the third quarter may further improve significantly. In the event of the epidemic affecting travel and low interest rate, the expense rate will continue to decline, and the improvement in profit margins may perform particularly significantly in the third quarter.
Overseas: Don’t worry too much about the impact of Fed rate hike , rate hike expects to ease . This round of Fed 's anticipation of inflation expectations management remains to be observed in the future. It is obvious that the pace of subsequent interest rate hikes depends on the performance of US inflation and employment market. From a fundamental perspective, oil prices continue to decline at high levels, and once the US economy gradually weakens, wage inflation will also lose support.
3. Open the imagination space for market reversal: large tickets set up the stage, small tickets play, and the market may repeat the reversal level of the market in the fourth quarter.If we regard the end of April this year as the mid-term market bottom, then referring to the market trend after the mid-term bottom at the end of 2018 and March 2020, the market will experience a significant reversal after the mid-term bottom. We believe that the fourth quarter market is worth looking forward to. It is even impossible to rule out that the reversal market similar to that in February-April 2019 and the reversal market in July 2020 will appear.
A new round of upward trend style is expected to repeat history: "Big tickets set the stage, small tickets play the show." In other words, in the early stage of the upward market, large-cap stocks were led by large-cap stocks, and small-cap stocks were the most active in the middle and late stages. In this round of market, whether it is the rebound from May to June or the weak adjustment since July, the market is characterized by the continuous underperforming small-cap stocks. Learning from history, when the market bottomed out, large-cap stocks first stabilized and rebounded, and small and medium-cap stocks significantly strengthened in the middle and back ends of the market.
4. Industry configuration: One of the main lines of : Focus on performance verification sector . The market has been twists and turns this year, and many sectors have the opportunity to fall, but the premise is that performance can also be continuously verified. The performance growth that can continue to be verified this year is basically concentrated in the fields of new and old energy. The high performance growth of the new energy sector in the new energy sector is still relatively high.
main line two: layout of industrial policy general direction . A-share market annual major market main line is closely related to factors such as industrial policies. In the fourth quarter, we will focus on marginal changes in directions such as economic development and industrial policies. Specific directions of industry allocation: 1) Growth: photovoltaic energy storage, machinery; 2) Consumption: liquor, automobile (components), home appliances; 3) Others: securities companies, gold.
(IV) Securities industry sectors of securities companies have gold mined
Huaxin Securities: Overseas household reserves are rising like the Japanese side, and the leading companies continue to benefit
Europe's energy supply is tight, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led to this trend intensifying. In this regard, The European Commission has proposed a package of "energy saving and fee reduction" proposals, reaching a political agreement on emergency intervention measures to reduce energy prices, but it has not yet reached an agreement on setting an upper limit on natural gas prices. We believe that European energy conservation and fee reduction measures can slow down the rise in energy prices to a certain extent. It is expected that European residents' electricity prices will still be at a high level in the future. Under high electricity prices, photovoltaic + household storage is the economic electricity solution for residents. It is expected that under the current electricity price, the recycling cycle of household storage will be about 5-6 years, showing extremely economicality.
Currently, Europe dominates the global demand for household energy storage. Europe is expected to account for about 50% of global demand in 2022, of which Germany accounts for about 70% of European demand. The penetration rate of household storage is still extremely low. It is expected that by the end of 2022, the penetration rate of household storage in installable households will be only 8%, the highest level in Europe.
The United States ushered in a historical high of new installed capacity in the household energy storage quarter in the second quarter of 2022 , , , and demand in other states began to make efforts. The long-term rising electricity prices and subsidies will drive household storage demand. It is expected that the penetration rate of US household storage in installable households will be only 1% by the end of 2022. The demand in the US market is expected to be released in 2023, and companies that are the first to deploy in the US market are expected to benefit. We are optimistic about household storage demand in the long term. It is expected that the global new installed capacity will reach 108GWh in 2025, and the industry scale can reach about 190 billion yuan.
Chinese household energy storage batteries and inverter companies are showing a pattern of "competing to layout and accelerate overseas travel" in the overseas market . We believe that household energy storage is expected to become an important strategic home appliance product in the world. Chinese battery and inverter companies have outstanding products, cost reduction, channels and other capabilities to respond to this industry trend. It is expected that the industry will maintain rapid growth by 2025, and high electricity prices and low permeability are the core driving factors. In the short term, some household battery storage companies and inverter manufacturers have first-mover advantages. In the long term, the direction of "full industrial chain layout and all-in-one machine" will fully enjoy the industry opportunities brought by household energy storage. We are optimistic about Paineng Technology (covered by new energy group), Penghui Energy (covered by new energy group), Far East Co., Ltd. ; we are optimistic about photovoltaic inverter companies with first-mover advantage, and recommend Keshida , Sunshine Power Supply , Jinlang Technology , Deye Co., Ltd., Hemai Co., Ltd., Yuneng Technology, Kehua Data .
Minsheng Securities : New materials define new opportunities, SiCh leads industry changes
SiC is the third generation semiconductor material . It has excellent voltage resistance, thermal conductivity and heat resistance, and is a breakthrough material for manufacturing power devices and high-power RF devices. According to Wolfspeed, the global silicon carbide device market size will reach US$4.3 billion in 2022, and the market size of silicon carbide devices is expected to grow to US$8.9 billion in 2026.
New energy vehicles are the largest downstream application market for silicon carbide power devices. According to estimates, the global SiC device market size applied to the main drive inverters of new energy vehicles is expected to reach US$4.4 billion in 2026. In order to improve the charging speed of electric car and alleviate mileage anxiety, vehicle manufacturers such as Xiaopeng , BYD , Great Wall, Porsche, Hyundai have successively launched 800V high-voltage platform models, which is expected to further increase the penetration rate of SiC devices in new energy vehicles.
The current global total annual production capacity of SiC substrates is about 400,000 to 600,000 pieces equivalent to 6 inches, which cannot meet the strong downstream demand. According to Yole's forecast, with the technological advancement of substrate manufacturers and further expansion of production capacity, the price of 6-inch conductive substrates is expected to drop to US$590 in 2025, which will drive the increase in the penetration rate of SiC devices and is expected to be with Si-IGBT in the future. In addition, the current three overseas manufacturers: Wolfspeed, II-IV and Rom, occupy 89% of the global conductive substrate market . Six overseas manufacturers, including STMicroelectronics, Infineon, ON Semiconductor, Wolfspeed, account for 99% of the global silicon carbide power device market. The industry structure is monopolized by overseas manufacturers, and domestic manufacturers are accelerating their breakthrough.
For SiC substrate manufacturing, with the space for process improvement in all links of substrate manufacturing, the advancement of solutions growth methods, laser cutting and other technologies are expected to further increase substrate production capacity, and the substrate is expected to continue to reduce costs.
Investment advice: With the continuous breakthrough of silicon carbide technology, it is recommended to pay attention to San'an Optoelectronics, a leading domestic vertical integration manufacturer in ; SiC substrate manufacturer Tianyue Advanced and other ; device manufacturers Times Electric, Star Semiconductor, Xinjie Energy, Shilan Micro, China Resources Micro , Yangjie Technology , Wingtai Technology, Zhongci Electronics, Changfei Optical Fiber, Jita Semiconductor, BYD Semiconductor , etc.; SiC equipment companies Beifang Huachuang, Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical, Zhongmic Company , Xinyuan Micro , etc.
Zhejiang Securities: The revolution in the automobile business model has begun, the automobile software industry is in full swing
Automobile software and hardware decoupling After the host manufacturer's business model has been upgraded from hardware-driven to software-driven, the automobile software industry ushered in a market of 100 billion. predicts that by 2030, the total scale of China's automobile software industry is expected to exceed 190 billion yuan, and the CAGR from 2020 to 2030 will reach 26%. The ADAS/AD software market will grow from 3.5 billion to about in 2020. The smart cockpit software market will grow from 7.7 billion to about 30.8 billion in 2020.
"Software-defined Automotive Era" automobile business model has been subverted, the automotive software market has risen in the wind, the traditional distributed architecture has made the automobile software and hardware tightly coupled, and the process of improving the level of smart cars has increased gear shifting and speeding up. At the same time, OTA allows remote wireless upgrades of software, and OEMs can cater to software iterative updates in the body. The change of "hardware pre-embedding + software upgrade" has triggered a disruptive revolution in the profit model of the automotive industry, and OEMs can upgrade the profit model from hardware to software.
Intelligent driving: Safe driving is the main job of the car. The main manufacturer is based on the core lifeline of the market. With the maturity of L3 autonomous driving technology, the driving subject of the vehicle will gradually shift from the driver to the system. The transfer of the driving subject will bring about changes in the judgment of legal rights and responsibilities. The responsibility for the accident will be transferred from the driver to the main manufacturer, causing the main manufacturer to "have to" pay attention to intelligent driving software. Only by achieving higher-level autonomous driving can OEMs lead the smart car track, so OEMs need to grasp the progress of the research and development of smart driving software.
Smart Cockpit: the current selling point of personalized cars, the future "third living space" and the focus of differentiated competition among OEMs. Currently, smart cars are still mainly in the L2+-level assisted driving stage, and drivers need to be in a monitoring state at all times.When unmanned driving has not yet been realized, the smart cockpit is the first obvious feature of the automotive intelligence that consumers can perceive. The smart cockpit is also the primary entrance for the OEMs to accumulate user data and realize traffic monetization in the future. Therefore, major OEMs are working hard to build smart cockpits, aiming to pursue this current selling point of personalized automobiles. Follow companies: Zhongke Chuangda, Desai Siwei , Guangting Information, Neusoft Co., Ltd., Huayi Technology, etc.
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