The real estate market in 2021 is like a "roller coaster", with ups and downs.
html At the beginning of 1, due to the concentrated release of housing purchase demand in 2020, the property market ushered in a brief period of heat, and housing prices officially entered the "10,000 yuan mark".
However, the good times did not last long. Regulatory policies suddenly tightened in April, the real estate market began to cool down significantly, and the heat of the real estate market and housing transaction volume began to decline significantly.
Starting from the second half of the year, affected by real estate loan concentration management system , bank loan quotas have begun to be tight, mortgage interest rates have increased significantly, and mortgage interest rates in many cities exceed 6%. At the same time, the difficulty of second-hand housing loans has increased, and the liquidity of second-hand housing has further weakened.
"Golden September and Silver October" cooled down again. Not only did the heat of the real estate market and housing sales decline significantly, but housing prices also ushered in a pullback. According to data given by National Bureau of Statistics , the prices of new houses in 70 cities ushered in the first pullback in September. According to statistics, this is the first time since 2015 that the price of new houses fell month-on-month.
At the same time, according to the October sales data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the average house price in October also returned to less than 10,000 yuan.
Just when everyone thought that the real estate market in 2021 would end with a "cold winter", the real estate market in the last two months ushered in a certain degree of recovery. The popularity of the second-hand housing market in many cities began to rise. Of course, the main reason was the relaxation of loan policies and the price of second-hand housing did fall.
Summary of the real estate market in 2021, we can make the following judgments on the real estate market:
1. Regulatory policies are decisive for the short-term trend of the real estate market, and in the next few years, tightening of regulatory policies is the norm.
2. The market confidence in the real estate industry has been lost, and it is difficult to regain confidence in the short term.
3. The real estate market has ushered in a turning point. Whether it is sales or housing price trends, the turning point in the real estate market has arrived.
2021 has passed. No matter what the housing price trend last year, I believe everyone is more concerned about the real estate market in 2022. Many people will set goals for buying a house in the new year. So is the real estate market really suitable for home buyers to buy a house this year?
In fact, in my opinion, 2022 will still be the "cold winter" of the property market, but it is also an opportunity for home buyers who need it.
Why is it said that 2022 will continue the cold winter of the real estate market in 2021? There are two main reasons:
First of all, the trend of regulation policies will not change, because "housing for living, not for speculation" is the main goal of future regulation, and regulation will basically not be relaxed in the short term. At the same time, with the increasing number of regulatory policies, the regulatory policy system is also being improved. Under the influence of regulatory policies, it is difficult for the real estate market to recover quickly from the "cold winter".
Then it is difficult to recover in the short term. There is a saying in the real estate industry: the market confidence of the real estate industry is "as precious as gold". On the one hand, this sentence reflects that the market confidence of the real estate industry is very important to the real estate industry; on the other hand, it also shows that once the market confidence of the real estate industry is lost, it will be difficult for the property market to recover in the short term. As long as the market confidence does not recover, it will be difficult for the property market to recover from the "cold winter".
In short, the real estate market in 2022 will most likely continue the "cold winter" of 2021, which may not be good news for the real estate market, but for home buyers who need to be urgently needed, 2022 may be a good opportunity to buy a house if they need to be urgently needed.
First, mortgage policies have begun to tilt towards urgent needs, loan difficulty has decreased, and mortgage interest rates have also been pulled back.
When mortgages are tightening in 2021, home buyers are facing the problem of tightening loans on the one hand, and on the other hand, they also face the problem of rising mortgage interest rates.
The author has a friend who happened to buy a house in September last year. Judging from the housing prices, housing prices have indeed experienced a sharp pullback, and the cost of buying a house has also been greatly reduced. However, the loan interest rate is at a high level. In the past, the mortgage interest rate was around 5.635%, while when a friend bought a house, the mortgage interest rate rose by 25%, and the mortgage interest rate for the final loan was 6.125%.
In addition to the high loan interest rate, the difficulty of banks in approving loans has also increased a lot, because my friend bought a second-hand house, and many banks do not accept second-hand house loans. My friend searched for a bank loan for one or two months. After the loan, the loan approval cycle was also very long, and the loan has not been approved yet.
Starting from 2022, the real estate market has been getting good news, because at the end of 2021, in order to ensure loans that are urgently needed, mortgage policies have been loosened, mortgage interest rates have also been pulled back, and the loan cycle has been significantly shortened. For home buyers in 2022, not only can they enjoy lower loan interest rates, but they may also borrow faster and the buying cycle will be shortened.
Second, housing prices in some cities have fallen, and the cost of buying a house has been greatly reduced.
House prices have ushered in a turning point in 2021. House prices in many cities have ushered in a pullback in 2021, but this is just the beginning. In the next few years, many cities will continue the trend of downward housing prices.
Although there is a saying in the market that "buy up, not buy down", people are very enthusiastic about buying houses when housing prices rise. When housing prices begin to fall, many home buyers dare not buy them. In fact, this is a completely wrong house buying thinking, because "buy up or not, not down" is the thinking of investing in real estate. For home buyers with urgent needs, a correction in housing prices may mean that houses are no longer suitable for investment, but it is indeed possible to buy a house at a lower cost. It is cost-effective for home buyers with urgent needs to buy a house.
Judging from the current development trend of the real estate market, the trend of differentiation in the real estate market will further develop. Those cities with inflated housing prices will usher in a further correction in 2022, which is a good opportunity for home buyers who need to buy houses.
3, inflation will continue, holding a house can indeed resist inflation .
Recently, many experts have been discussing the rise in commodity prices. Due to inflation around the world, the price of commodities has risen. The rise in commodity prices internationally will also have a great impact on the domestic market, because my country is a major importer, and the rise in the prices of certain commodities will lead to the rise in the prices of imported raw materials, which will directly or indirectly lead to the rise in the prices of domestic commodity prices.
In short, although the economic situation in my country is now very good, due to the impact of global inflation, my country will inevitably be affected by imported inflation. Some economists predict that inflation will continue in the next few years. For ordinary people, holding cash will definitely face the problem of depreciation.
Although the investment value of a house has indeed weakened a lot now, the risk of investing in real estate is higher than in the past, if you hold some relatively high-quality properties, your ability to maintain value is still very good, and at least you can resist inflation.
Will you choose to buy a house in 2022? Welcome to express your opinions in the comment section.
