In the past decade, housing prices have been a topic that everyone cannot leave behind. If everyone has been worth a lot of money in ten years, but if you look back, you will see what is the biggest reason for your worth? For most people, it may be the result of a sharp increase in housing prices. Over the past ten years, some people's value has doubled because of the surge in their houses; some people's asset gap has widened significantly because of one step and one step.
However, in 2022, housing prices seem to have reached a critical intersection again. Where can we go? What should we worry about and care about the most?
Let’s first take a look at the current housing prices in the country. Yes, the housing prices are high! In fact, we should face it one thing. In the country, there are still many cities or counties that are not high in housing prices. For example, the most discussed , Hegang , or even Yumen, are cities like this. Even if it costs tens of thousands of yuan per set, even if there are idle and vacant rooms, why didn’t everyone flock to it? In fact, what we pay the most attention to is housing prices in big cities.
Big cities gather a large number of high-quality resources such as medical care, education, and employment. A large number of people gather in first-tier and second-tier cities. We often see rich people in villages and towns buying houses in county towns, buying houses in county towns, and buying houses in provincial towns, and buying houses in central cities. In fact, this situation has also occurred in developed countries, such as , Tokyo Metropolitan Area, , in Japan. Now the Tokyo metropolitan area has gathered more than 30% of the population in Japan, and the situation is the outflow and hollowing out of other cities. The aggregation of population will inevitably push up housing prices in big cities, but housing prices in big cities are not static.
In recent years, my country's baby birth rate has shown a certain downward trend, with the increase in national regulatory policies, the continuous explosion of real estate developers, and the superposition of various surrounding factors.
The current sluggish housing prices make us wonder where the housing prices that have continued to rise for many years are going to go? Has it reached the top?
Here I chose an ordinary provincial capital city, which is also a new first-tier city that has been more representative in recent years.
Let’s look at a key data. From 2012 to 2020, the average salary income of on-the-job workers in the provincial capital. From this data, we can see that the average salary of on-the-job workers has increased more than doubled from 48,302 yuan in 2012 to 104,463 yuan in 2020. If we sort out the data from this period in detail, we can find that from 2012 to 2017, the average wage increase of on-the-job workers in the provincial capital showed a decrease year by year. However, from 2017 to 2018, the average wage growth suddenly increased, nearly doubling. Do you still remember what the housing prices around us were like between 2016 and 2017? House prices have seen an unexpected market, from the original downturn to the explosive rise in housing prices.
Below, let’s take a look at the housing prices in the provincial capital over the years.
We see that between 2012 and 2015, the annual increase in housing prices in the provincial capital was no more than 5%, and even showed a significant decline in 2014. However, starting from 2016 and to 2020, the annual average sales price of residential commercial housing in the provincial capital has increased by more than 10%, and even increased by nearly 20% in 2019. House prices in 2020 nearly doubled compared to 2015. What does this mean? The house that was originally 600,000 yuan in 2015 will have a normal selling price of more than 1.2 million yuan by 2020; while in other real first-tier cities, the housing price difference is even larger!
However, we can see that since 2019, the increase in housing prices in the provincial capital has ranged from 19.89% to 12.81% in 2020, and it has shown a downward trend. For other third-tier and fourth-tier cities, from the current situation, the downward trend of housing price increases may be more obvious.
However, unfortunately, the average wage increase of on-the-job workers across the country also showed a downward trend, and the corresponding increase was still 2% to 9% lower than the increase in housing prices in the provincial capital city.
Have you found a problem here? House prices have indeed shown a downward trend, and our wage income seems to have been weak. We have determined the current situation of
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Next, continue to look at some recent news.
According to the data released by the central bank at the end of January 2022, the balance of broad currency M2 is 243.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year, and the net cash injection of 1.54 trillion yuan per month.
In addition, it has been proposed at a higher level that the investment in infrastructure in 2022 will be increased and sufficient funds will be provided.
Japan's housing prices plummeted that year. In the 10 years that year, many hollow cities appeared, and the current Tokyo metropolitan area was formed.
However, what about us?
Where does the house price and income go?
What should we worry about and care about the most?
I believe everyone already has the answer in their minds.
