Domestic oil price adjustment cycle This week's oil price expectations briefing summary:
Today is Thursday this week. The eighth working day of the highest domestic retail price limit adjustment cycle. The existing data calculates the expected trend of oil price as follows:
This round The maximum retail price limit is expected to be increased by 181 yuan per ton, a decrease of 19 yuan per ton from the previous working day. The terminal retail price of is:
is expected to be increased by 0.13 yuan per liter;
is expected to be increased by 0.15 yuan per liter;
is expected to be increased by 0.15 yuan per liter.
This round of domestic oil prices has the highest retail price adjustment time to start at 24:00 on October 24, 2022 and be executed at 0:00 on October 25. will be subject to the official notice of the National Development and Reform Commission.
The expected increase in the domestic highest retail price limit adjustment cycle has been in a state of narrowing expectations and a downward increase since October 11.
, on the one hand, is affected by the follow-up of the average price of the three places, and needs to synchronize expectations according to the mechanism requirements; on the other hand, domestic spot commercial inventory also has clear choices in the price direction.
Currently, the main adjustments to the listing price of local refiners in East China are still based on the commodity circulation situation. The main action is to lower the gasoline and stabilize the diesel.
Of course, the current price of diesel production is the main support for the listing price of diesel refining in the mainland.
At the same time, while the main business continues to pile up commercial inventory, no relevant news mentioned that there will be market expansion measures in the near future.
Then on Monday's price adjustment day next week, if the highest retail price limit can meet the requirements of the increase red line, the direct sales wholesale price of the main external purchasing will likely rise accordingly with the price adjustment range.
This is market logic and also a business need!
October 19, 2022 International Oil Price Futures Brief Review:
As of October 19, local time, closing on October 19:
NY Commodity Exchange November delivery crude oil futures price rose by US$2.73, closing at US$85.55 per barrel;
London Intercontinental Exchange Department crude oil futures price rose by US$2.38, closing at US$92.41 per barrel.
Among the recent frequent industrial expectations reports in related industries in Europe, the manufacturing industry's production capacity forecast is the most bleak. In most public reports on related industries such as metals, chemicals, power and energy, the relevant production capacity in the last quarter of 2022 is being announced globally at a terrible ratio of 30%, or short-term forecasts.
This is actually a paradox that there is no balance between production capacity and consumption. For example, S&P Mobile's end-of-year production capacity estimate for European automobile companies has also reached a decrease of 30%-40%. As consumption updates slow down units, both manufacturing energy consumption and usage energy consumption will be supported by this proportion to provide a decline in consumption performance.
Then, this dynamic downward production capacity trend will largely turn various preliminary predictions of crude oil gap into the cause of overestimating production capacity and falling commodity market.
Unless, the household refined oil heating industry is as popular and relatively cheap as Germany.
