▲Iran is vigorously aiding Russia
Recently, the US media " Washington Post " published an article saying that Iran is preparing to transport the first batch of Fatah-110 and Zofargar ballistic missiles to Russia, which will be the second batch of military equipment Iran sold to Russia after more than 2,400 Sheid-136 drones. According to information revealed by Russian military bloggers on social media, the elite Ukrainian army that is now fighting fiercely in eastern Ukraine is leaving from eastern Ukraine to return to defense Kiev . Before Lenovo , Russia and Belarus formed a joint force, and are currently mainly deployed in Brest news closer to Ukraine. It is almost certain that major changes are likely to occur in the Russian-Ukraine battlefield, and a war to end special military operations may be coming.
▲Forcing Zelensky government to negotiate is the main strategic goal of the Russian army at present
First of all, from a strategic perspective, the Russian president's intention to further expand special military operations into a Russian-Ukraine war is not strong. This is fully reflected in the recent speech of Putin in Astana , that is, "Russia will not continue to expand the scale of mobilization, nor do it want to destroy the entire Ukraine." This means that the purpose of all Russian military operations is nothing more than "forcing Ukraine to return to the negotiation table and accept the current situation of the four states belonging to Russia." But it is obvious that without a major victory on the Russian battlefield, the Ukrainians cannot compromise without taking the initiative in the battlefield. Considering that this special military operation has caused serious harm to Russia, it is unlikely that Putin will continue to drag on the protracted war with Ukraine, so Putin needs to launch a decisive combat operation this winter. Russia began to mobilize 300,000 people in September, which is likely to be prepared for this winter decisive battle.
▲The Russian army has no logistical advantage in the three combat directions and the Ukrainian army's decisive battle
Secondly, from the perspective of the battle, the three fronts confronting Russia and Ukraine, namely, Ukraine East, Zaporoze and Khlsong , the overall combat situation is not good for Russia. This is not caused by the Russian army's poor combat, but the Ukrainian army has natural geographical advantages.
In the direction of Lugansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian army has the core railway hub city of Kharkov , and can use railway trunk to quickly mobilize troops to mobilize and support. On the other hand, the Russian army can only mobilize and support through roads in most combat areas, and the efficiency of the two is too different. In the direction of Zaporoze, the Ukrainian army was backed by Zaporoze City and Dnipro Railway Hub for logistics supplies, while the Russian army was backed by the sea and had enemies in front of it. It was also very unfavorable to support Russian mainland, whose combat logistics base was several hundred kilometers away. The worst is of course in the direction of Khlsong. The front line of the north bank of the Dnieper River, which is currently confronting both sides is completely an isolated area separated by the Dnieper River. The Ukrainian army only needs to continuously attack the bridges on the river to trap the Russian army in a dangerous place.
It is obvious that in these three places, if the Russian army continues to compete with the Ukrainian army, the results may be relatively ugly with the support of NATO superior war materials. Under such circumstances, it is particularly important to open up a new front that can be fought to the decisive battle.
▲The Russian army's three possible offensive routes
So, where should this front be opened? There are three better choices. The first is to hit Chernigov from the Bryansk Oblast in Russia, and to surround the Ukrainian group from behind. The second is to go south from Gomel in southern Belarus, and go directly to Kiev through Chernobyl, and the third is to go directly to Lviv from the Brest region in western Belarus. Overall, the plan for the first two routes is not good, because this is an offensive route used by the Russian army in the first phase of military operations. The Russian army was unsuccessful at the time, and the Ukrainian army has been on high alert at present, especially the route from Russia's Bryansk Oblast to Chernigov. It is impossible for the road from Russia's Bryansk Oblast to Chernigov. It is impossible for it to break into the back of Kharkov in the short term, and it is also very close to the elite troops in eastern Ukraine. It is easy to be returned to the defense forces to make dumplings.However, the plan three: The Brest region in western Belarus is directly inserted into Lviv , which is very small in investment and has great returns, and is likely to become the main battlefield for the decisive battle in Russia in Udon.
▲Brest's direct access to Lviv's combat operations has the greatest benefits
On the one hand, Brest is the largest railway transit hub in eastern Europe, which can directly lead to Moscow. The Russian army set out from this city and fought south, and there is absolutely no logistical obstacle; on the other hand, Lviv is very close to Brest, but it is far from Kiev and far from Ukraine. If the Russian army comes from here, the Ukrainian army will not be able to return to aid in time. Even if the return to aid comes here, it is impossible to defeat the Russian army because the logistics route is twice as high as the Russian army. The third and most important point is that once the Russian army fights from Brest, NATO's military aid to Ukraine will be cut off. At that time, Ukraine will fall into a state of unsustainable resistance, and there is no other way except surrender.
In short, this winter is absolutely extraordinary. The Russian-Ukrainian war may end in an ultimate decisive battle. The ballistic missile and drone obtained by the Russian army from Iran will play an important role in this decisive battle.
