The 10th Typhoon of this year, "Sea God", has been strengthened from a strong typhoon level to a super typhoon level this morning. At 14 o'clock, the maximum wind speed near its center reached 58 meters/second. Its intensity has exceeded the peak intensity of "Mesak" and has beco

The 10th Typhoon of this year, "Sea God", has been strengthened from a strong typhoon level to a super typhoon level on the morning of this morning (4th). At 14:00, the maximum wind speed near its center reached 58 meters/second. Its intensity has exceeded the peak intensity of "Mesak" and has become the wind king in the northwest Pacific and the South China Sea since this year. In the eyes of many people, summer is the most active typhoon and the most likely season for typhoons to cause disasters. In fact, in autumn, although there are not as many typhoons as in summer, their power and impact should not be underestimated. China Weather Network has specially counted meteorological data from 1949 to 2019 and found that there are more "harsh characters" in autumn typhoons.

Login time: Typhoons are still active in September. Autumn typhoons should not be underestimated.

Usually, we call typhoons generated from June to August "summer typhoons", and typhoons generated from September to November "autumn typhoons". Statistics show that in the past 71 years, the number of typhoons generated in summer has been 825, which is the most active season for typhoons. In autumn, there are 808 typhoons, second only to summer.

Judging from the situation of logging in to my country, the influence of the autumn typhoon should not be underestimated. Data from 1949 to 2019 showed that on average, about 4.44 typhoons landed in my country each year, which is the season with the most typhoons landed in my country; and on average, 2.38 typhoons landed in my country each year, which is the second active season for typhoons; the average number of typhoons landed in spring and winter each year is less than 0.2.

In autumn, September was the most active, with an average number of logged in reaching 1.75, second only to August (1.93) and July (1.86), where typhoons are most frequent, with a small difference.

login point: The path is southward. The autumn typhoon landing point is concentrated in the area south of Zhejiang.

Compared with the summer typhoon, the autumn typhoon landing point that lands in my country is obviously southward. Meteorological big data shows that summer typhoons mostly land in Guangdong, Fujian, Taiwan, Zhejiang and other places, and typhoon landings are not uncommon in northern regions such as Liaoning, Shandong, and Jiangsu; while autumn typhoons are relatively southerly, and landing points are mostly concentrated in South China. In the past 71 years, there have been basically no typhoons north of Jiangsu in autumn.

Take September as an example. Typhoons landing in my country are concentrated in the southern region, and none of them landed in Jiangsu and the north. The most crowded places are Guangdong and Taiwan, followed by Fujian and Hainan, with an overall location in the south.

China Weather Network meteorological analyst Gao Fei said that in autumn, the southward movement of the typhoon landing point is related to changes in the subtropical high pressure position. Typhoons generally move along the periphery of subtropical high pressure. After entering September, the subtropical high pressure gradually retreats eastward and moves southward. The typhoons are suppressed by subtropical high pressure, resulting in the path being southward. Therefore, autumn typhoons rarely affect provinces with relatively northern geographical locations such as Jiangsu, Shandong, and Liaoning, and the sphere of influence is concentrated in the South China area.

Intensity: There are many "harsh characters" in autumn typhoons, and super typhoons account for a high proportion of

Although the number of summer typhoons generated and logged in is the largest in the year, meteorological big data shows that autumn typhoons are more likely to produce "harsh characters". Between 1949 and 2019, super typhoons accounted for 28.1% of the typhoons generated in autumn, far higher than 18.1% in summer.

Judging from the intensity of the typhoon's first landing in my country, the autumn typhoon is also significantly higher than the summer typhoon. In summer, typhoons mostly land in my country at tropical storms or strong tropical storms, with only 14.8% reaching the level of strong typhoons or above; in autumn, this proportion reaches 22.5%, significantly higher than in summer.

Impact: Autumn typhoon encounters cold air Disaster impact escalates

History, there have been several autumn typhoons that have had serious impacts on our country. Meteorological big data from 1949 to 2019 showed that in September of the past 71 years, a total of 7 super typhoons landed in my country. Although the probability is not high, once they encounter it, the destructive power is extremely strong.

In addition, the recent typhoon "Moranti" No. 14 in 2016 is also very powerful.After it landed in Xiamen, it advanced all the way northwest, and the wind and rain spread to 11 provinces and cities including Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Jiangsu. Strong winds and heavy rainstorms caused disasters in many places.

Why is the autumn typhoon so destructive? Gao Fei, a meteorological analyst at China Weather Network, introduced that starting from the vernal equinox, the direct sunlight point moves from the equator to the Tropic of Cancer, heating the tropical oceans of the northern hemisphere. The sea water heat continues to accumulate, and the sea temperature usually reaches its highest from August to September. High sea temperatures are conducive to typhoon generation and energy enhancement. At the same time, from the end of August to the beginning of September, cold air began to become active, increasing the pressure gradient, and increasing the wind speed near the center of the typhoon is also conducive to the increase in typhoon intensity. Therefore, in autumn, a higher probability of strong typhoons or super-strong typhoons occur.

Gao Fei reminds that the "ruthless" of autumn typhoons not only reflects the intensity of the typhoon, but also the impact of the disaster may also escalate. As the cold air gradually increases in autumn, typhoons are more likely to encounter cold air, and "Autumn Typhoon + Cold Air" is a terrible combination. The two join forces often trigger violent precipitation, resulting in greater disasters.

For example, Typhoon No. 13, 2010, was generated in October and did not land directly in Taiwan. It drilled into the South China Sea from the Bashi Strait and then went north to Zhangpu, Fujian. The large amount of warm and humid air transported by the typhoon circulation encountered cold air from the north to the south, and the impact of the terrain lifting of the central mountain range in Taiwan, led to more than 1,000 mm of precipitation in Suzhou-Ao in eastern Taiwan, and the Suhua Highway collapsed, causing many people to die or disappear.

The path of autumn typhoons is changeable, and the prediction is more difficult

The autumn typhoons are not only outstanding in strength, but also often change in the path. According to the "Typhoons in my country" compiled by the Central Meteorological Observatory in 2015, three typhoons were recorded in the "Typhoons with the most complex path", including Typhoons No. 16 in 1986, Typhoons No. 19 in 1991, and Typhoons No. 16 in 2001, Nari. Among them, "Nate" and "Lily" are both generated in autumn, and the life cycle of "Wayne" is also in late summer and early autumn.

1991 Typhoon "Nat" path map

2001 Typhoon "Nari" path map

2001 Typhoon "Nari" path map

The path path of autumn typhoon is more complex and changeable, and is related to the weather system affecting autumn typhoons. Shao Peng, a meteorological analyst at China Weather Network, said that in autumn, such as the westerly wind belt, subtropical high pressure, cold air, etc., these weather systems compete with each other without deciding their victory or defeat. It is like a "naughty child" being influenced and controlled by different "parents", so it becomes east and west, south and north, with strange and changeable paths, greatly increasing the difficulty of prediction.

Whether in terms of forecast difficulty or power, Autumn Typhoon is a very "ruthless character" and its destructive power cannot be underestimated. According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, although the typhoon "Sea God" will not land in my country, it will also bring great storm effects to the Northeast from September 7 to 9. In addition, in the next 10 days, there will be another typhoon in the South China Sea or the Northwest Pacific Ocean. China Weather Network will continue to bring you the latest typhoon news. Coastal residents must pay attention to the approaching warning and forecast and do a good job in typhoon prevention. (Text/Zhang Hui, Wang Wenwen, Data Support/Gao Fei, Shao Peng, Shi Yan, Design/Wei Lai)

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