The "13th round" price adjustment of domestic refined oil will start at 24:00 on July 12. The current pricing cycle has passed half, and the main key indicators for price adjustment reference have been greatly reduced. Therefore, oil prices are in a downward state, which lays the foundation for the new round of oil price adjustments that may usher in a decline. Of course, a reduction in oil prices is something that almost all consumers expect. After all, the current domestic retail price limit for refined oil is still at a historically high price. The decline in oil prices can moderately reduce the refueling costs of car owners, and at the same time appropriately reduce the burden of living. Therefore, the decline in oil prices is a great good news.
In addition, according to the domestic crude oil change rate of -2.53% on the 6th working day, it can be seen that the cumulative reduction of oil price forecast is 137 yuan/ton, which is significantly larger than the forecast of the previous working day and is much higher than the price adjustment red line. Therefore, oil prices are in a downward state, which also means that the "13th round" price adjustment may usher in a decline in the year. In addition, the few working days left before domestic oil price adjustment, the forecast of oil price rebound is limited, so this round of refined oil adjustment may become a foregone conclusion. According to the calculation of liter price, the expected reduction in oil price is 0.10 yuan/liter-0.12 yuan/liter, and the corresponding price of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline will be reduced. Car owners can spend about 5 yuan less if they fill a box of 50L of gasoline.
In addition, according to the current forecast oil price reduction range, after the domestic "13th round" refined oil price adjustment, it is expected that the national No. 92 gasoline price fell below 9 yuan and returned to the "8 yuan era". The prices of No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel will continue to be lowered on the original basis. At that time, the retail price limits of gasoline and diesel across the country will continue to fall, and the cost of filling a box of gasoline for ordinary private cars will be lowered. At the same time, with the end of the latest round of oil price adjustments, domestic refined oil prices have shown a pattern of "ten rises, three falls, and zero stranding". After the rise and fall of , the cumulative increase in gasoline and diesel prices per ton continued to shrink, and the cost of car owners to fill a box of gasoline is slightly cheaper.
Secondly, in the overseas market, due to the rising concerns about economic recession, the possibility of an economic recession in the United States has soared to 38% in the next 12 months, further suppressing crude oil demand, resulting in a sharp drop in international oil prices. Overnight, WTI and Brent crude oil futures both fell sharply. Affected by this news, the reference crude oil change rate for domestic oil price adjustment reached -2.53%, deepening its operation within the negative range. The reduction in oil price forecast has expanded to 137 yuan/ton, which greatly increased the possibility of oil prices falling.
Furthermore, as concerns about the global recession intensified, international oil prices hit the biggest single-day decline since March, with the decline spreading to other energy products. Both indicators crude oil hit the biggest single-day percentage drop since March 9, and the stock prices of major oil and natural gas companies were also hit. Oil prices hit their lowest since the end of April. Therefore, the intensified concerns about the recession have had a greater impact on the crude oil market and other areas. As of the closing of the day (5th), the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in August fell $8.93, closing at $99.50 per barrel, a drop of 8.24%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures delivered in September fell $10.73, closing at $102.77 per barrel, a drop of 9.45%.
To sum up, due to the market's concerns about the rising recession sentiment, international crude oil showed a sharp decline, WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices both plunged, and hit the largest single-day decline since March. Driven by the plunge of international crude oil, the domestic crude oil change rate on the sixth working day was -2.53%, and the cumulative oil price forecast was reduced by 137 yuan/ton, far exceeding the price adjustment red line. Therefore, the "13th round" price adjustment this year may usher in a decline.
(This article is original by Chengshuo Fengyun. Welcome to follow and increase your knowledge with everyone.)
