Related Information
1. Shanghai Metal Network: Powell reiterated that he will continue to raise interest rates to win the price battle, but there is no guarantee that he can avoid recession.
2, Shanghai Metal Network: China's aluminum product export volume increased significantly from January to May this year. The cumulative export volume of aluminum products was 4.3285 million tons (including aluminum wheels), an increase of 16.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative export volume was US$20.28 billion, an increase of 40.7% year-on-year.
3, Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council : First, the passage of trucks from low-risk areas shall not be restricted at will; second, the passage of trucks shall not be restricted on the grounds of communication travel cassettes; third, the passage of trucks shall not be restricted on the grounds of waiting for nucleic acid test results; fourth, the passage of truck drivers and passengers shall not be required to conduct repeated nucleic acid tests.
Based on the above information, Cinda Futures Research Institute provides investment advice for relevant varieties on June 27.
Copper core logic and operation suggestions
Core logic: Currently liquidity is shrinking at a faster pace, the copper-oil ratio has fallen to a low level, and the economic recession is expected to make a comeback. In addition, the supply and demand transmission structure is weak, and copper prices may have entered the bear market first, so pay attention to preventing risks.
market situation: Copper price fell sharply last week, falling directly to around 63,000 yuan/ton. The risk of short-selling as previously indicated has gradually been reflected. We have noticed that the statement of inflation in the Federal Reserve has changed significantly. Powell publicly admitted that there were mistakes in his previous judgment on inflation. At present, the Federal Reserve chose to continue to raise interest rates to suppress inflation, which may be difficult to avoid the risk of economic recession. For the market, it is undoubtedly a spur to stir up a thousand waves. As the copper-oil ratio fell to a seven-year low, market panic expectations continued to ferment. CFTCh speculative short market increased its positions to more than 15,000 lots, and the short trend was obvious. Focusing on the domestic policy, however, from the perspective of domestic economic stabilization policies, the situation has improved significantly, mainly manifested in the current situation of significantly loosening epidemic prevention and control, and localities have gradually relaxed epidemic prevention and control, and the State Council also stated that logistics should not be restricted. It will help the domestic consumer market to operate well, and pay attention to terminal consumption data in June.
Recently, we have noticed that the operating rate of primary consumer goods has rebounded sharply, indicating that demand in the processing industry is strengthening, but terminal consumption such as real estate completion rate and commercial housing sales have weakened, and demand is not smooth downward transmission. At the same time, the warehouse receipt inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is destocked at a low level, but domestic copper prices have not emerged from the positive market, indicating that the current market is not following the fundamental logic or the fundamental support is relatively weak. At present, supply and demand transmission is relatively weak, and we continue to pay attention to the recovery rhythm of consumption in real estate, electricity, home appliances and automobiles.
spot transaction: According to Shanghai Metal Network, the spot market transaction on the previous trading day was average, and the premium was the same as the day before yesterday. The market transaction atmosphere at the end of the month was average, and the spot premium in the session was basically the same as yesterday. The mainstream of flat copper rose by about 80 yuan, and the mainstream of good copper rose by about 100 yuan. Today, the market first showed a small number of next-month tickets, which was about 30 yuan different from the current monthly tickets.
Strategy Suggestions: Wait and see for the time being
Focus: Global economic recovery, inventory performance, interest rate hike in July
Electrolytic aluminum core logic and operation suggestions
core logic: Currently liquidity is shrinking at a time, market expectations are weakened again, coupled with the support of supply and demand structure, there may be a risk of weakening, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term, but due to the cost support, the bottom support of Shanghai aluminum is relatively strong. If terminal consumption rebounds as expected, the center of gravity of aluminum prices is expected to move upward. However, the continued expansion of domestic supply is an invisible risk and needs attention.
market situation: In the nonferrous metal sector, the support below aluminum prices is relatively strong, and the decline is relatively small. The Fed's statement on inflation has changed significantly. Powell publicly admitted that there were mistakes in his previous judgment of inflation. At present, the Fed chose to continue to raise interest rates to suppress inflation, which may be difficult to avoid the risk of an economic recession. For the market, it is undoubtedly a spurt to stir up a thousand waves. As the copper-oil ratio fell to a seven-year low, market panic expectations continued to ferment. However, from an industrial perspective, due to the general shortage of overseas aluminum products, domestic aluminum products export consumption improved significantly from January to May, with cumulative export volume increasing by 40.7% year-on-year, and export consumption performance in the first half of the year was better than expected.
Foreign demand is expected to be poor, LME aluminum inventory hits a new low, and electricity is extremely short of many places overseas, and it is forced to start the coal-fired power program, which is expected to strengthen.From a domestic perspective, raw material costs have risen and electricity prices have risen at high levels. In terms of demand, due to the significant recovery of downstream aluminum operating rate, the inventory of primary aluminum has slowed down, but terminal consumption performance is lower than expected, and the current demand transmission is lower than expected. The sustainability of upstream destocking remains to be seen. Please be cautious about whether the terminal consumption data in June will further recover. In addition, against the backdrop of high profits and wide controls and sufficient water and electricity, bauxite imports continued to expand, with a year-on-year increase of 31% in May, indicating that aluminum plants are still expanding production at present. Although part of them is used to expand exports, domestic supply is still expanding on a large scale.
spot transaction: According to Shanghai Metal Network, the average spot price of aluminum ingots fell with the market, and the average price of the online price of the East China market is around +10 yuan/ton. The enthusiasm of major players to receive goods was average last trading day, and the receipt price in the East China market was around 19,160 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices fell weakly, market trading was cautious, and overall transactions were average.
Strategy Suggestions: Short-term wait-and-see
Focus: Global economic recovery process, overseas power shortage, domestic consumption
