U.S. stock form may not be good. just now, the yield on 10-year US bond has returned to 3.149%. As shown in the following trend chart, the trend of US Treasury yields rising is very obvious. The wave of dead cat jumps after hikes in July, in terms of interest rates, as shown in the following trend chart, when the U.S. Treasury yield hit a pit.
The euro zone inflation just released is 9.1%.
This repeated inflation is very obvious. Even if short-term inflation falls back in a certain month, it is still relatively high in the long term. is possible, and the next is volatile inflation.
Now, the yield on US bonds has increased. The yield on the 13-month U.S. Treasury bonds is already 2.965%, just one short of 3%. The yields of
-year and 3-year U.S. Treasury bonds both exceeded 3.5%. The 2-year period is 3.493%, which is approximately equal to around 3.5%. That is to say, the yield on the 1-3-year U.S. Treasury bonds is 3.5%.
This shows that the market's expectations for Federal interest rate hike are strengthening.
However, social media company SNAP announced yesterday that it would lay off 20% of its employees and lay off 1,000 people.
is expected to increase companies that announce layoffs after the Fed violently raises interest rates in September.
Ford announced in mid-August that it would lay off 3,000 employees.
After the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in November, the scale of layoffs of listed American companies will be very large. At that time, the non-farm employment data released in December or January 2023 may not be very good. This will limit the Federal Reserve's ability to raise interest rates to suppress inflation.
Federal Chairman Powell is facing a Congressional hearing, and then a bunch of congressmen will ask him questions. USD interest rate is not as much as Powell wants to add.
Now, the one-year U.S. Treasury yield is the highest, followed by the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield of 3.531%.
It can be said that one-year U.S. Treasury yield is the best prediction for tracking the market's top Fed rate hikes in the next year.
Today, crude oil fell back, and I don’t know much about the reason.
In our US stock group, I think this view of a big shot is very reasonable.
Oil prices are now more likely to fluctuate, and will rise and fall back to . Moreover, the expectation of a recession caused by interest rate hikes was also under pressure to pull back. The article I posted before predicts that oil prices will rise sharply, and the basis may not be tenable.
Anyway, analysis is essentially to draw a conclusion based on the data. Just check , you need to have your own judgment.
Dow futures are now starting to retreat again, it depends on how much the US stock market will fall tonight.
