overnight, Fed rate hike boots landed as scheduled, USD index continued to soar sharply. However, the trend of U.S. stock turned sharply, with Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 1.70%, Nasdaq closing down 1.79%, and S&P 500 closing down 1.71%.
With the completion of the 5th rate hike of in 4 years in , the cumulative amplitude is as high as 300 basis points, and the US dollar index has hit a new high in the past two decades. The Fed's "hawkish" behavior has also led to the global financial market being full of troops, and it is not ruled out that it will trigger a new round of "rate hike competition". Industry insiders predict that the Fed may not cut interest rates until 2024, so even World Bank has to sound the alarm for a "global recession".
Under the strong US dollar policy, global stock markets are not having a good time. As of the close of September 21, 2022, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by more than 20%, which is close to the decline of the S&P 500. France's CAC40 fell nearly 16%, Italy's FTSE MIB fell nearly 20%, Germany's DAX fell nearly 20%, and South Korea's K-EI fell more than 22%. Of course, there are also a few relatively strong ones, such as FTSE Singapore Strait rose by more than 4%, India SENSEX 30 rose by more than 2%, UK FTSE 100 fell by only nearly 2%, and Nikkei 225 fell by only nearly 6%.
So, when the US dollar continued to appreciate in history, how did the US stock market and A shares perform? Since the base day of the US dollar index, it has experienced a total of four major waves of upward trends. Source of the following data: Wind.
First wave: From 1980 to 1984, was affected by the high domestic interest rates and fiscal deficits in the United States, and the US dollar index rose from the lowest 85.8200 to 151.4700, an amplitude of up to 76.50%. During the five-year period, the S&P 500 rose by about 58%, and at that time there was nothing wrong with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.
Second wave: From 1996 to 2001, was affected by the Asian financial crisis and the global Internet bubble , and the US dollar index rose from the lowest 80.0500 to 121.0200, an amplitude of 51.18%. During the six-year period, the S&P 500 rose by about 86%, and of course it is not as good as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, but the Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 300%.
Third wave: From 2013 to 2016, , against the backdrop of strong recovery of the US economy and obvious return of funds, the US dollar index rose from the lowest 78.9200 to 103.6595, an amplitude of 31.35%. During the four-year period, the S&P 500 rose by about 57%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose by nearly 30%. The fourth wave of
: From May 2021 to the present, has risen from the lowest 89.5423 to around 111.7000, with a cumulative increase of 24.75%. During this period, the S&P 500 fell about 8%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell about 23%.
Thinking: Judging from the first three major bands, when the US dollar index rose sharply, A-shares also followed the big rise. At present, the US dollar is still in the process of relaying the rise. Will A-shares also make up for the rise in the future after the full band? Of course, affecting the long-term trend of A-shares is mainly due to factors such as domestic macroeconomics, monetary policy, and the profit quality of listed companies.
Perhaps some friends will be curious, in the context of the strong US dollar in the last round, which sectors of A-shares performed more strongly? Is it a reference for this round of market conditions? Let’s take a look at the following data source: Wind.
From the beginning of 2013 to the end of 2016, the top rankings of Shenwan's first-level industry growth were: computer, media, communications, light industry manufacturing, and electronics sectors, with an increase of more than 150%. In this range, only the coal sector fell. Continue to fall to the second-level Shenwan industry, the highest increase in the range is: animal health care, games, film and television theaters, entertainment supplies, IT services, software development, and medical services sectors, with an increase of more than 250%.
Under the background of this round of US dollar appreciation, all A-share sectors performed as follows:
2021-September 21, 2022. The top rankings of Shenwan's first-level industry growth are: coal, power equipment, non-ferrous metals , utilities, national defense and military sectors, with an increase of more than 15%. In addition, the basic chemical industry, comprehensive, automobile, petroleum and petrochemical, communications, building decoration, and transportation sectors also recorded positive returns. The pharmaceutical and biological, beauty care, social services, building materials, household appliances, media, and non-bank financial sectors fell sharply, with a drop of more than 25%.It also fell to Shenwan's second-level industry, and the highest increase in the range is: non-metallic materials, coal mining, home appliance parts, other power supply equipment, motors, energy metals, new metal materials, agrochemical products, photovoltaic equipment, small metals, and photovoltaic equipment sectors, with an increase of more than 35%.
From the comparison of the above two time periods, the leading sectors are completely different, and the trend of the coal sector is completely opposite. Therefore, when the US dollar rose in the last round, the A-share sector had no reference value. In addition, if you want to seize the long-term strong sector from the idea of "the appreciation of the US dollar is good for export companies", you can basically take a shower and go to bed, and this feature was not shown in the previous round (short-term market is another matter).
Finally, let’s take a look at what impact will the oil and gold commodities have on the two commodities when the US dollar rose sharply in history? Taking the trend of ICE Brent crude oil as an example, the range rose by about 7% from 1996 to 2001, the range fell by about 49% from 2013 to 2016, and the range rose by about 33% from May 2021 to the present; taking London Gold as an example, the range fell by about 45% from 1980 to 1984; the range fell by about 28% from 1996 to 2001, the range fell by about 31% from 2013 to 2016, and the range fell by about 6% from May 2021 to the present.
can be seen. The impact of the long-term strength of USD on oil prices is not certain, but the gold price in all four rounds of market conditions has dropped sharply, and it is not a good time to allocate gold in the long term.
Welcome to follow the "SL Fund Circle". This account is "light" financial information, "heavy" basic selection skills, and insist on using data to speak!
is not easy to organize data, so I worked hard to like and support it. The content and views are for reference only. The fund's past performance does not represent the future. Please read the legal documents carefully before purchasing and choose a product that suits you. If you have any questions, leave the microphone to you~~
